Global flu plague has started: experts warn of 50 million deaths
- From: "tony" <tony@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Wed, 31 Aug 2005 14:13:30 +0800
Global flu plague has started: experts warn of 50 million deaths
Coment: A new plague of Biblical proportions, categorized as a "global
pandemic"
is about to begin. The world's leading experts warn that it is now
"inevitable" and the predicted death-toll is in the region of 50,000,000
people world-wide, with 10,000 deaths expected in the UK alone. The epidemic
will be caused by a killer strain of bird flu virus which has mutated to a
human form.
***
Bird flu 'will spread to the UK'
Avian flu will inevitably spread to Britain through wild migrating birds,
the president of the British Veterinary Association has warned.
Dr Bob McCracken said water fowl, such as ducks and geese, would be most at
risk, followed by free-range poultry.
UK officials are urging poultry keepers to ensure high levels of
bio-security.
Following the discovery of the flu in Russia, the European Union called on
members to step up checks on flocks of migratory birds.
A spokesman for the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
(Defra) said guidance on how to assess the risk of avian flu will be issued
to vets and industry across Britain.
However, it was not advising British farmers to follow the Dutch
government's example of advising that birds be kept inside.
Defra officials earlier said the risk of the virus spreading to the UK was
very low and that taking the same steps as those recently undertaken in the
Netherlands would be "disproportionate".
Dr McCracken, and the EU Commission, agreed with this advice, but said it
was important that adequate surveillance was in place.
Speaking at a gathering of European vets, Dr McCracken said: "Wild birds
that have migratory pathways over Europe and the UK will become infected. It
is inevitable that bird flu will be carried to this country by migrating
birds.
"The majority of our reared birds are still intensively reared and bred in
large houses that are wild bird-proof. The danger is to free range birds and
to backyard flocks."
Import bans
His calls for greater surveillance were mirrored by the European Commission
spokesman for health and consumer protection, Philip Tod.
Speaking after the EU meeting on Thursday, Mr Tod also said EU poultry
import bans would be enforced.
"The key to this problem is early detection and rapid action," he added.
The Commission, he said, would make financing available to facilitate
monitoring but he did not give a figure.
The Dutch measures were put in place after an outbreak of a type of bird flu
which has killed at least 57 people in South East Asia was confirmed in
Russia.
There are grave concerns of a global pandemic stemming from the H5N1 type if
it mutates into a form which could spread easily from human to human.
It is feared that up to 50 million people around the world could die in a
flu outbreak, including more than 50,000 in the UK.
In the UK, every GP in the country has been issued with guidance on how to
deal with a possible outbreak.
Professor Hugh Pennington, the scientist who led the investigation into
Scotland's e-coli outbreak which killed more than 20 people, said the issue
was "very, very serious".
"This is a very nasty virus. It's doing enormous damage in the Far East at
the moment. It's got into Russia.
"If it got here, it would be economically disastrous, never mind the human
impact."
He also said an outbreak could claim more lives than the 250,000 lost in the
UK - and the 40 million worldwide - when an influenza epidemic struck in
1918.
Farmers' leaders have also been meeting the government to discuss
precautions against bird flu.
BBC News, "Bird flu 'will spread to the UK'", 25 August 2005.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4184346.stm
FURTHER READING
BBC News, "Bird flu 'passed between humans'", 28 January 2005.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/4215659.stm
Scientists have said a woman who died of bird flu probably contracted
the disease from her daughter.
The researchers from the Thai Ministry of Public Health warn it is
likely there will be more cases where the virus is passed from human to
human.
Professor John Oxford, a leading UK expert, said the virus had broken
down the "final door" which prevented it being spread between people.
...
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