Re: NEWSFLASH: EXPLSION, 2 UN Dead

On Jun 24, 2:49 pm, BM <m-e-d-a-w-...@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
JosephMo wrote:
Hezballah is condemning the attack. If this is true, and it turned out
to be a suicide bombing (per the latest reports), it may signal a
break between the Assad regime and Hezballah, which is something
that's been alluded to for a while, and may accelerate due to the
Assad regime's apparent complicity in the Nahr-el-Bared events, and
its support of an anti-Shiaa extremist group (or groups).

Is also consistent with Iran raproachment with Saudia Arabia, the EU and
to some extent the US in as much as they sat on the same table after
some 2-3 decades of animosity.

Yes. The Assad regime (I like to use the Assad regime, as who knows
what *Syria* wants, 97.34% of the popular vote notwithstanding :-))
was given one last change during the Rice-Muallem meeting, followed by
a stern warning from Rice, that it's not going to be business as
usual.

This attack on the UNIFIL is a watershed event. It signals Syria's
willingness to copy Iraq style attacks on International troops in
Lebanon. Having upped the ante, there is only one outcome that is
possible now, an all out war on Syria from two borders: the Iraq border
and the Golan Heights. There is only one domino left in this corner of
the world that stands against a negotiated resolution to the Arab
Israeli conflict. It's time to take down this terror regime.

The degree to which the Assad regime managed to infiltrate Lebanon
with Chechens, Yemenis, Saudis, etc. is frightening. I am glad the
government is not backing down, judging by the way Lebanon is
confronting these terror cells (and yes, I'm glad Lebanon is getting
help, else it would be not be able to counter all the Assad-sponsored
terror thrown its way).

As far as time-frame, it will happen before Bush leaves office. Bush
will rise to the nutty occasion once again and order an invasion of
Syria in the name of eradicating the last Baath regime on earth. Expect
to start hearing the drumbeats preparing the public for an invasion of
Syria a few months from now. Expect also Syria to commit more blunders
that pave the way for an invasion.

Assad has ample proof from the US that it's not business as usual.
This is Bush 43, not Bush 41. He may be screwing up all over the
planet, but in Lebanon, he seems to be doing the right thing (perhaps
for the wrong reasons). This scenario is becoming more likely every
day, especially in light of an Assad-Iran rift (which was only a
matter of time).

A preemptive Syrian sneak attack on the Golan would be nice about now.
Expect evidence to be found in Iraq in the coming days that point to the
culpability of the Syrian regime. And just when the surge starts to run
out of steam in September, expect US military commanders on the field in
Iraq to pin the surge failure on their inability to stem the flood of
terror from Syria. Conclusion, you can only win in Iraq if you destroy
the source of the terror: Damascus.

Very plausible scenario.

In the meantime, EU, the US and Iran will find an accommodation that
would allow Iran to keep its nuclear know-how short of building a bomb.
Pro-Iranian extremists in Iraq will be eliminated in favor of
pro-Iranian moderates. Iraq will then be pacified with a power-sharing
formula of one shape or another.

I'd compare the attack on the UNIFIL today in its impact and magnitude
to the Hariri assassination blunder. The Syrian regime has f****d up
again. Did I mention the International court? 1757 contains a
reference to chapter VII for a good reason. I expect the Lebanese
government to request to add the attack on the UNIFIL to the
International court docket. I expect the UNSC to oblige.

bassem


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