Tale of two poles

In Lebanon it is clear that two political poles dominate the country.
In the region surrounding Lebanon, there are two poles dividing
the region as well: fundamentalism and extremism on one hand and
moderation on the other. In Lebanon the moderates are represented
by PM Siniora and the political forces that support his cabinet.
The political forces opposing Siniora are anchored by the fundamentalists
and extremist Hizbollah. Forces allied to Hizbollah that don't share
its fundamentalist ideology are parasites hoping to rise with the rise
of Hizbollah.

It is not exactly correct to say that the Arab world is facing three
civil wars. It is more accurate to say that there is a build up for a
pan Arab civil war: moderates vs fundamentalists. In Lebanon, it is
Hizbollah against Siniora's March 14. In Palestine it is Hamas against
Abbas's PLO. In Iraq it is Sunni and Shiite extremists against each other
and against the Iraqi moderates (Alawi's faction, Kurds, etc.)

Other places where the Arab civil war is evident between extremists
and moderates are Algeria and Somalia. Afghanistan and Pakistan can be
see in the same light: extremism against moderation.

I expect that there will be more consolidation among moderates in
the Arab world, to support each other, and among extremists to also
support each other.

The 600 pound Gorilla in the room is of course Israel primarily
and the US occupation of Iraq secondarily. They both act as catalysts
in the confrontation between the forces of extremism and the forces
of moderation.

bassem
.