Re: The Knife in the Back

josephmouhanna@xxxxxxxxx wrote:
[...]
1. Nasrallah claims to have *foreknowledge*, meaning that he has
intelligence, reports, documents, etc. telling him that Israel prepared
a severe response plan and is waiting for a Hezballah provocation to
implement it.

I disagree with the above. It wasn't a severe response but a planned
operation. It wasn't waiting for a Hezbollah provocation but for the
right timing. Those differences change the whole concept.
If we are to agree with Hezbollah's details, they carried on with the
operation to disrupt the timing. It was either Israel reacts with the
plan to which they were ready for or Israel decides to tackle the
prisoner exchange issue after it shows a bit of anger, postponing its
plan.
In all cases, the soldier's capture doesn't incriminate Hezbollah with
Lebanon's destruction. This is my conviction.

[...]
Back to our wasps analogy: in response to a wasp attack, you don't just
stand there and keep waiving your arms trying to kill them, it simply
increases the magnitude of their attacks.

The magnitude of the attacks was premeditated.

[...]
So, what are the Lebanese supposed to do? given what we know, do we
want to wait for the next attack he launches against Israel, Israel
responds, he ups the ante, Israel increases the magnitude, and then
it's forced to send in troops for Nasrallah to practice target shooting
on?

If Hezbollah's intention is to launch an attack on Israel, then the
Lebanese can't do a thing. It's as simple as that. We are building on
hopes that Hezbollah will respect its word and its will to integrate in
a united Lebanon - people and government. What we can do is welcome
them and give them guarantees that their problems are our problems -
Sheb'aa and the prisoners - and that they are welcome to become part of
the government who will have the control over their military as part of
the unique official army.

[...]
You claim that he was tired of waiting,

My claims are personal opinions not the real reasons. I just gave a new
formulation which might be nearer to the truth at the beginning. Am I
trying to justify Hezbollah's actions? Maybe, but I believe that this
is their task not mine. I want to be part of those who support their
integration, their demands, and give them any needed guarantees to end
up with the problem. As I already stated many times before, we can't
force them to do what they don't want to do, but we can offer them a
way out that would be beneficial for everybody.

[...]
Is the Madfoun bridge and area around it less important to Nasrallah
than parts of the South? he was willing to take us to war against
Israel over land mine maps, how about taking us to war against Syria
over land mine maps around the Madfoun brdige? how about the entire
length of the Batroun Caza where random signs warn of leftover mine
fields?

I suppose that Syria can be dealt with diplomatically. They don't have
permission from the big powers to destroy Lebanon. (Again, this is my
opinion). They can continue to disrupt our internal political system,
as long as we allow them to do so - by not reaching a consensus. This
was Hafez al-Assad tactic.

[...]
You ask for leeway for Hezballah, and you claim that the memorandum of
understanding means that we're obligated to give him the benefit of the
doubt: as in, he's turned a new leaf and he is no longer allied with
Syria and Iran. Evidence is to the contrary. Not too long after the
famous memorandum was signed, the Lebanese army intercepted an arms
shipment to Hezballah from Syria. Saniora had given orders, but the
Minister of Defense (guess who?) ordered them realeased.

Those weapons will in the end form part of the Lebanese defense
strategy. It's convenient for Iran and Syria to have a Lebanon that
doesn't bend to the Israeli will (a la May 17th). If the theory that
the war was unavoidable, the weapon shipment can be justified.

[...]
Someone needs to hold all politicians in Lebanon to higher standards.
Nasrallah expects to treated like a religious figure as well, and this
is fine for those who follow him religiously (no pun intended), but for
the rest of us he is a militia leader, and all militia leaders with no
exception must be brought under the rule of the law.

A small detail to rectify in our case: he must be offered to come under
the rule of law - not be brought under. He must be showed that by
coming under the rule of law, the benefits are far more important than
to stay as a rogue militia defying the natural order of things and the
Lebanese welfare. We can't ignore that his position relies on Lebanese
support. He can be held accountable for his future actions in front of
the population.

Nevertheless, and brushing your cheap shot aside, I would be tickled
pink if he turns a new leaf and joins the fold. At this point I don't
trust him, especially all the havoc he caused *after* he signed the
famous memorandum of understandin, but I would love to be proven wrong,
as he is now the de-facto leader of the largest sect *inside* Lebanon.

I'm not asking you to trust him, but to trust those actions of his that
draw him nearer to a solution. The war didn't help, but we still ignore
many details surrounding it.

[...]
Before you toss pebbles on people's windows, move out of your glass
house, and by that I mean the positions of Syria's leader (his position
was not announced yesterday), when he keeps claiming that March 14 is
executing an American agenda, and that pointing out Hezballah's
shortcomings (or as you, and Hezballah, Iran and Assad would refer to
as: attacking), serves the Israeli and American agendas.

Ironically, I agree partially with what Jumblatt accused Assad of. The
Syrian president is trying to take advantage of the situation due to
the American insistence of shoving him in. I hope you read the FPM
response which was more subtle than Jumblatt's statement. We will have
to deal with Syria sooner or later and Jumblatt can't be part of it.

You accuse me of being more Catholic than the Pope. Your justification:
because an Israeli Arab forgave Hezballah for his daughter's death.
That's one victim, and I'm sure this guy's forgivness goes a long way
toward relieving the pain and suffering of all those who lost loved
ones, and for those who have to care for loved ones who lost their
ability to walk or make a living. Just one question: where do you come
up with these illogical accusations from?

You used the innocent dead people argument to justify an accusation
against those who are using it for political objectives. This is an
emotional statement on your behalf used to camouflage your disgust at
what you refuse to acknowledge. The majority of those who died are
Shiites who have another belief system, in which such death is
martyrdom and therefore, the most honorable one. So if you mean that
religion is illogical, yes it is. But that doesn't give you the right
to criticize what others do (even if it's claiming a victory in the
name of their dead). Granted, they weren't the only ones. But history
continues and it has to deal with the living.

BTW, have you ever heard of something called a house of cards? You
strongly defends Hezballah's right to exchange prisoners, but you're
still incapable of quantifying the Prisoners issue. How do you expect
others to build on this particular house of cards? wouldn't it be
prudent to figure out if it's real (or more like credible) before using
it to justify actions that resulted in the destruction of Lebanon.

A new number of 15 is circulating now. I'm not expecting others to
accept my justification on this point. I'm expecting you and others to
trust that Hezbollah is capable of having good intentions for once (and
hopefully for all). Instead of hammering them with accusations, I
believe it would be more constructive to point to everything that's
blocking them from achieving their "good" intentions. Should they
falter towards such end, I would be the first one to criticize them and
join your line of thoughts. I would also have to admit that I was wrong
and that you were right - but this hasn't happened yet.

You say that the destruction already happened, so let's just get over
it, and then you want me to trust the future of Lebanon to the same
party that was key to this carnage? Am I crazy, or should I expect some
level of accountability?

I want you to give them a chance to redeem themselves and integrate. If
you want crazy, just check the news about the reconstruction that's
taking place and the reactions of Harb and the Sunni businessmen! It's
a shame. I wonder if the Lebanese mentality will ever change.

Here's one more question for you: what do you call Nasrallah's weekly
trips to Damascus during the period leading up to his misadventure?

As already stated, there are many details we ignore. Checking on the
weapons? Exchanging spying network information? Telling Assad that he
would train a Syrian resistance? Anything can be valid and all belongs
to the realm of speculation.

DrSMITH.

.

Relevant Pages

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  • Re: The Knife in the Back
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