Re: DKJ and all [My two cents]

CTJ,
Maybe if you applied some analysis to the opposite side of your
arguments, maybe you would not look so stupid. Have you assessed the reality
and cost of Thailand generating nuclear power? The total costs for the full
life cycle of nuclear energy? It seems to me that they announce some policy
to look into nuclear power and you surmise that it completely scuttles Laos'
whole economic policies. Thailand has been here before, it wasn't economical
or feasible then and it likely isn't now.

Then you keep saying that the Thai buy electricity for a buck and then
sell products back to Laos for two bucks but you supply no example nor
analysis, anybody can make baseless statements. Now if you were to show that
the two dollar cost of that item was articifically inflated or more than the
item was worth as a general commodity, you might have a point. As it is, the
two dollar item could be a simple commodity item worth only two dollars and
then it doesn't support your whole premise because any free market would buy
the product from somewhere at the very same price, even if it wasn't
purchased back from the electricity purchaser.

And by the way if you had even a simple grade 7 understanding of math,
you would know that interest does not rise exponentially. It's a simple
percentage, it is not an exponential function. (exponent - i.e 10 to the
power 2 (100), 2 to the power 4 (16), Those are exponential functions.)

Also if you could do simple math functions, you also would have gotten
the total debt per populace figure correct as well. $2.69 billion divided by
5.8 million people is only $464 per person. Your answer is off by a factor
of at least 10X. So the total is only approx. 1 years earnings for each and
every Lao national.

Now, where do you get your other figures for 2006? Without references,
your figures are meaningless because you could not possibly just know such
details and your ability to do simple math is highly suspect as I have
shown. Share the source and lend your figures some creedence (besides the
one World Bank Debt figure).

Here is a figure that you surely won't like because it indicates your
analysis is faulty and that Laos is progressing very nicely towards reducing
it's total debt. According to the WB and I quote, "National debt has
declined from 100% of GDP in '99 to 40.8 percent in '06." Seems to be a very
good indicator of the soundness of Laos' current financial policies and
improvements in recent years. The World bank also has a number of reports on
their site that equally tout significant improvements across the board in
almost every aspect of Lao life. How about poverty reduction? Lao poverty
rate 1992/93 46.0%, 2004/05 31%. Or under 5 year child mortality rate?
1990 - 163/1000, 2004/05 - 70/1000. So if you want to just pick and choose
certain stats from a source and try to make your arguments, maybe you should
make sure the source doesn't contain other data that directly contradicts
your overall premise or assessment.

You should really read the World Bank reports on Laos, maybe they would save
you from making erroneous statements and mathematics in the future.

Phi Dung Mo

"ctj" <chong@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:213ae9c2ba4efb963bc7c8d9c6c2eebb@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Thanouxay,

Your response is based upon several assumptions. The first is that Laos
has a "sound energy policy." At this time, this is debatable.

Your second statement, "why should you care about what the neighbors will
do ." This is precisely the type of thinking that will fail Laos.
Frankly, your neighbors don't care about you either. Let's take a look at
what is going on financially in Laos.

A glance at Laos's financial statement illustrates the difficulty that
lies ahead.

From 2005 to 2006, Laos increased its trade export from $646 to $996
million. Of that, $525 million was from the export of mining and $107
million from electricity while other sectors remained fairly flat. By
contrast, the total trade import in 2006 was $1.384 billion.

Net income in 2006 was negative $409 million.

Laos currently has an external debt of $2.690 billion or a little over
$5,000 per citizen. Not a lot of money by US's standard, but by Laos's
standard, it is about ten years worth of wages. This will continue to get
worse as the interest grows exponentially. (Source: World Bank)

In short, Laos is spending more then it makes, and will continue to do so
even with the new dams. As production increases, so will the cost of
operation and the profit margin will actually decrease before it
stabilizes. I will take a wild guess that it will require at least ten
years, if not more, to break even on a 1.45 billion dollar loan to
construct a single dam.

Laos currently imports over 60% of its commodity from Thailand. Who is
smiling now? The Thais are buying electricity for one dollar to make
goods to sell to Laos for two dollars.

The point of this is not to demean anyone but to recognize that a genuine
problem exits. Tearing holes and damming rivers will not fix it. Long
term, it will do more harm.

In any country, small companies are the backbone of a nation. To be
competitive, Laos must provide incentives for its citizens to compete. I
have no doubt that if given a level playing field; the citizen of Laos can
hold its own. One example, if Laos improves its transparency (business,
human rights, legal, etc.) and can train its workforce and improve its
manufacturing capabilities, Laos can compete internationally. This can
only occur with absolute transparency. Reputable companies will not risk
their names for any shenanigan. Laos need to harness the power of her
citizens, both Laonai and laonork, and relinquish the quick fixes.

Finally, your statement," I strongly think that nuclear energy will take
decades to be able to go somewhere in Thailand." You are precisely
correct; this is what's call long-range planning. What a surprise, this
time frame will coincide with the expiration of the Laos-Thai energy
purchasing agreement. The Thais are using Laos as a stepping stone in
their strategic planning. Wake up.

Chong






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