Aumann's address

I got this speech of Prof. Auman from Naomi Ragen. It speaks for itself.

Moshe Schorr
It is a tremendous Mitzvah to always be happy! - Reb Nachman of Breslov
The home and family are the center of Judaism, *not* the synagogue.
Disclaimer: Nothing here necessarily reflects the opinion of Hebrew University

Prof. Israel (Robert) J. Aumann, Nobel Prize Laureate;
Center for the Study of Rationality, Hebrew University of
Jerusalem


First of all, I would like to thank the conference
organizers for inviting me to speak at this important and
central event. I was asked to speak about the existential
dangers threatening the State of Israel. One danger known to
all of us stems from Iran's nuclear armament program, which
threatens to erase the State of Israel from the map. We
cannot underestimate the importance of this danger. However,
in my humble opinion, it is less threatening than it appears
at first glance. Iran is a nation like all nations; it has
an address-we know who it is and where it is. If the rumors
are true-that the State of Israel has according deterrence
capability, and no less importantly, means of delivering
weapons, then there is indeed a danger, but it is a limited
one. The rulers of Iran are often called lunatics, but there
is no evidence that this is the case. Iran's rulers act very
rationally. They have goals that indeed oppose our goals,
but these are their goals, and they advance them very
effectively. The destruction of central Iranian cities is
not one of their goals. We certainly need to stand guard,
but the fear of Iran's direct use of nuclear weapons against
Israel seems minimal. I allow myself to speak freely because
I don't know anything that's happening in the field-perhaps
less than anyone in this hall.
However, unfortunately, there is a different danger in
Iran's nuclear armament-more tangible and more threatening,
although more indirect. This danger is hidden in the
possibility that nuclear technology will be transferred from
Iran to terrorist groups such as Al Qa'ida or others-groups
whose identities are indistinct, who have no address. Even
these groups are not insane; they act consistently,
rationally, and sophisticated in order to achieve their
goals. But because they have no address, direct deterrence
policy is not effective in their case. Thus, if they succeed
in obtaining nuclear weapons, it is unclear how we will be
able to deter them from using it against us.

These groups, or some of them, are very close in their goals
and ideology to Iran. Therefore, this is a great danger in
the transfer of nuclear technology and the necessary
materials from Iran to these groups. One possibility is that
such a transfer would be intended and approved by the
Iranian authorities. Another possibility, which is more
likely, is that the transfer will not be intended or
planned; this is a case of infiltration of radical terrorist
elements into the Iranian nuclear system or of a lack of
sufficient caution of the Iranian authorities or of a leak
or of deliberate smuggling in the lower echelons of the
Iranian system-leaks and smuggling that are unauthorized and
even unknown to the higher echelons. If such a transfer
occurs in one of these two ways, then we will in fact be in
substantial trouble. We will not be able to directly prevent
these groups to execute their schemes. Therefore, we must
act indirectly by offering appropriate incentives. In my
opinion, there are two ways to do this. One is to create
strong and tangible motivation for the government of Iran to
prevent at all costs the transfer of nuclear technology and
materials to groups that do not function under its auspices.
The second and less effective way is to give strong and
tangible motivation to these terrorist groups we have
mentioned not to use nuclear weapons against Israel, even if
they have obtained such weapons. As we have said, this type
of deterrence is not easy because these groups have no
address, but they have goals and they have an ideological
identity, and it is possible to create adequate incentives
on this backdrop. We mentioned two existential threats
facing the State of Israel-the direct nuclear threat and the
indirect nuclear threat. As we have said, the second danger
is greater, and now a few words about a third threat, which
is perhaps the greatest of all. It does not come from Iran,
nor from terrorist groups, nor from any external source. It
comes from within us. "We have met the enemy, and it is us."
Esteemed ladies and gentlemen, your humble servant makes his
living from game theory-among other things, very serious
games: games of life and death and of existence and
annihilation. The name of the game in game theory is
motivation, incentives. Earlier, we discussed the
motivations of those standing on the opposite side.
Motivating ourselves is the most important thing, and the
thing we are losing the most. Without motivation, we will
not endure. What are we doing here? Why are we here? What
are we aspiring to here? We are here because we are Jewish,
we are Zionist, because of our ancient bond to this land; we
aspire to realize our 2000-year-old hope of becoming a free
nation in our land, the Land of Zion and Jerusalem. Without
this profound understanding, we will not endure. We will
simply no longer be here; Post-Zionism will finish us off.
About half a year ago in Petra, Jordan, the prime minister
said that we are tired. He was right. He was elected by the
nation, and he expresses the sentiments of the nation. We
are like a mountain-climber that gets caught in a snowstorm;
the night falls, he is cold and tired, and he wants to
sleep. If he falls asleep, he will freeze to death. We are
in terminal danger because we are tired. I will allow myself
to say a few unpopular, unfashionable words: our panicked
lunging for peace is working against us. It brings us
farther away from peace, and endangers our very existence. I
think it was Churchill who said, "If you want peace, prepare
for war." The preparation includes material preparation, a
fantastic army, effective tools of war, but above all, we
are talking about spiritual preparation, about spiritual
readiness to go to war.

Roadmaps, capitulation, gestures, disengagements,
convergences, deportations, and so forth do not bring peace.
On the contrary, they bring war, just as we saw last summer.
These things send a clear signal to our "cousins" that we
are tired, that we no longer have spiritual strength, that
we have no time, that we are calling for a time-out. They
only whet their appetites. It only encourages them to
pressure us more, to demand more, and not to give up on
anything. These things stem from simple theoretical
considerations and also from straight thinking. But it's not
just theory: it has been proven and re-proven in the field
over thousands of years. I returned today from a trip to
India, where we heard about historical stories that
illustrate the same. Capitulations bring about war;
determination and readiness bring about peace. Ladies and
gentlemen, we must tell our cousins that we are staying
here. We are not moving. We have time; we have patience; we
have stamina. Understand this and internalize it. And we
must not simply say it to our cousins but feel it within
ourselves. This and only this will bring peace. We can
really live in peace and unity and cooperation with our
cousins. But only after they understand and internalize that
the Zionist state will be here forever. Thank you very much.
.

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