Earthquakes - predicting and stopping the next big one
- From: jgarbuz <jgarbuz@xxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Thu, 24 Jan 2008 20:50:48 -0800 (PST)
Posted Saturday, December 03, 2005 on IsraCast.com
A system that could predict earthquakes has long been the Holy Grail
of scientists trying to prevent the next catastrophe. Now a small
Israeli company, backed by experts, is not only claiming to have
discovered a method for accurately predicting earthquakes well before
they occur, but also for preventing some of them.
The work of an earthquake. Can we prevent it?
The history of earthquake prediction is long and at most, fruitless.
In the 4th Century B.C. Aristotle proposed that earthquakes were
caused by winds trapped in subterranean caves and ancient Chinese and
Italians studied special clouds which were thought to be indicative of
impending quakes. More recently a group of scientists at the
University of California, Los Angeles claimed an earthquake
approximately 6.5 on the Richter scale will occur in Southern
California by September 2004. It didn't happen. The grim history of
earthquake prediction led some seismologists like Robert J. Geller
from Tokyo University to claim that it is practically impossible to
predict earthquakes and that it seems unwise to invest heavily in
monitoring possible precursors of upcoming earthquakes. Despite the
long line of failed projects and the harsh criticism sprung each time
a new earthquake prediction method was suggested, a small Israeli
company named Terramoto has recently proposed a three stage method
which its inventor, Meny Nachman, believes will not only help predict
earthquakes with very high accuracy but also be able to stop some of
them from occurring altogether.
Why earthquakes occur?
The Earth's crust is broken into a mosaic of moving tectonic plates.
In order to understand Terramoto's idea we first need to go deep
underground in order to understand what causes earthquakes in the
first place. According to the theory of plate tectonics developed in
the 1960's the earth's interior is made up of two layers, the outer
lithosphere and the inner asthenosphere. The lithosphere essentially
"floats" on the asthenosphere and is broken-up into ten major plates.
These plates are in constant motion relative to each other with a
typical velocity of a few centimeters per year. Although the velocity
in which the entire plate is moving is relatively constant, the
velocity in which material is moving along intersections of plates,
also known as fault lines, is not constant and is believed to be
changing due to irregularities in the material composing these parts
of the earth asthenosphere. These irregularities are attributed to
rocks, sometimes kilometers in size, which are buried in the ground
and can be found at times up to 20 kilometers below the surface. These
rocks can locally stop the movement along a fault line and by doing so
accumulate tremendous pressure which is released abruptly when the
rock finally crushes. This instantaneous release of mechanical energy
is what we call earthquake and the strength of the quake is dependent
upon the amount of energy accumulated in the rock over the years.
Relatively small quakes happen all the time near fault lines around
the world and although we usually do not feel them, the system
developed by Terramoto regards them as highly important signs that can
reveal much about an impending big earthquake.
Terramoto's three stage method for detecting and preventing
earthquakes:
Terramoto has developed a method based on existing equipment which
will map, predict and if possible prevent major earthquakes from
occurring along known fault lines. Geophone is an instrument used to
detect vibrations passing through the earth's crust
Mapping - a number of measuring stations will be placed along the
fault line equipped with special microphones called geophones (a
standard seismological equipment) which will be buried in the ground.
Each geophone will be capable of measuring the low frequency noise
caused by faint earthquakes and using triangulation techniques will
locate the points in the ground where pressure is building up. The
idea behind this method is that if in a specific point along the fault
line we measure a certain amount of energy release and in another
point along the fault we measure a similar amount of energy release
then we can assume the existence of a third point in the gap between
these first two points were energy, at least at the same amount, is
being accumulated.
The drilling will be performed using standard equipment from the oil
industry
Predicting - When a potentially hazardous point is located, a deep
ultrasound survey is performed using equipment borrowed from the oil
industry. The survey is performed in order to locate the specific rock
where the pressure has accumulated. Using drilling equipment (again
borrowed from the oil industry) extract a sample of the rock and
evaluate its strength, and combined with the ultrasound scan determine
its size and shape. This data is then used to create advanced
mathematical models that can predict how much pressure the rock could
endure before succumbing to the sheer force of the tectonic plate. The
amount of pressure built up can be a good indication of the possible
force of the earthquake that can be unleashed when the rock eventually
shatters. In order to be able to give an accurate time prediction of
an upcoming quake, two lasers will be placed each on a different
tectonic plate and by measuring the interference pattern they create
it is possible to evaluate the relative velocity in which the two
plates are moving and thus the rate of the energy accumulation inside
the rock.
In order to weaken a potentially dangers rock, a deep underground
explosions will be performed.
Preventing - When a high-magnitude earthquake has been predicted it is
possible to drill up to 10 kilometers inside the ground and place
explosives inside the rock in order to perform a series of controlled
blasts to weaken the rock, gradually relieving the built-up energy
accumulated over the years.
Dr. Shmulik Marco
IsraCast approached Dr. Shmulik Marco, from the Department of
Geophysics and Planetary Sciences at the Tel Aviv University, to get
his professional opinion on the method developed by Terramoto. Dr.
Marco explained that systems like the one suggested by Terramoto, are
important tools for saving human lives and as such are worth much more
than the amount of money that will be invested in them. The idea
behind the system is not entirely new, and although there are some
technological obstacles in the way, the main reason such systems have
not been implemented in the past are more political then
technological. According to Dr. Marco there is a real need for
rethinking priorities and reallocation of funds to the field of
seismology which suffered from heavy cutbacks in recent years
especially in the U.S. As for the method suggested by Terramoto, the
first stage (mapping) is definitely possible and partial experiments
of this sort are currently taking place around the world. The second
stage (predicting) is also possible although it will pose great
technical difficulties due to the need to drill more than eight
kilometers below the ground (there are currently a handful of drilling
teams working below this depth around the world). The third stage
(prevention) is the least feasible at this point mainly due to the
need to find ways to detonate huge rocks deep inside the ground, in an
extreme environment of intense heat and high pressure. But even if the
third stage would not always be performed, advance warning can give
countries time to prepare quick response teams, strengthen buildings
and in some cases even evacuate people ahead of time.
Mr. Meny Nachman, Terramoto CEO
Mr. Nachman, Terramoto CEO, told IsraCast that despite the
difficulties involved with deep earth drilling, there are still many
potentially devastating earthquakes which are caused by rocks less
then 8 km inside the ground. These rocks can be reached using existing
drilling equipment and the blast can be performed inside the rock
using a relatively small charge that will create an initial crack in
the rock, preventing it from accumulating dangerous pressures.
According to Mr. Nachman Terramoto's system will be able to predict
the center of an upcoming earthquake with precision of within about
one meter, half a Richter scale in magnitude and a timeframe of
between a week and a month of its occurrence. Based on the data
collected it should be possible to predict earthquakes many years in
advance and thus either prevent them by a series of controlled
explosions or prepare for the event by strengthening buildings and
evacuating people.
Kobe, Japan - 1995
Terramoto was founded by Mr. Nachman in 2005 and its new method is
currently patent pending in the U.S. and Israel. The development of
the first stage of the system for which Terramoto is seeking investors
should cost less than one million dollars, and the full system
including six measuring stations should cost approximately one million
dollars upon completion. When we factor these costs we should always
consider that besides the horrific loss of life we attribute to many
high magnitude earthquakes there is also a huge financial cost
attached to them. The 1976 Northridge Los Angeles 6.9 magnitude
earthquake demolished some 15,000 buildings resulting in a total loss
of around $15bn; in Kobe Japan the 7.1 magnitude earthquake in 1995,
cost $90bn to $147bn in repairs alone and resulted in 180,000
buildings destroyed or seriously damaged. An accurate reliable early
warning system might have prevented these and other human and economic
catastrophes.
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