Re: Anti Chinese/anti Chinese government vitriol on SCI- utterly shocking.

Westprog wrote:
Paul Carr wrote:
...
I haven't thought about it. It's highly unlikely that 7000 is an
accurate figure. Perhaps, there is a Chinese language source where a
more exact figure for the injured is kept. English Wikipedia is not
the fount of all knowledge. How does one define an injury anyway?
Is a scratch on the arm allegedly caused by a flying bullet to be
included? There's no conspiracy by the Chinese government, Westprog.
I am satisfied that the Chinese government has given pretty accurate
figures, as accurate as they can be at any rate, of the dead and
injured during and after the Tiananmen Square crackdown.


What is important is that parents of the dead - more of those Chinese
people that Feachadoir and I hate so much -

Oh come on, I made it clear already that I didn't mean that you and
Feachadoir hated the Chinese people. I made it clear I meant others.
However, you two do have a closed mind about the place. You both need to
open your minds. I mean, even in this post, Westprog, you're pulling
supposed facts out of your arse. In this post, you're saying "parents of
the dead are trying to get an accurate estimate, and are being blocked by
the Chinese government". Now, that statement would have more credibility if
you would give me a source. Now, it could well be that there are some
parents who don't believe the official Chinese government figure of deaths
and are asking for an accurate (more accurate) figure as you say, but,
again, a source is expected when you write something like that.

The Chinese people have a Confucian culture or ideology or way of life.
They're not part of the Abrahamic religious tradition. The people here see
their governments, be they local, provincial and national, on the whole, as
their protectors, as their beneficent rulers. Also, don't forget, Westprog,
this is a developing country. Although, China now has comfortably over 1.3
billion people, close to 1.33 actually, only about, I guess, 330 million
plus belong to the middle class with a quality of life comparable to that of
our own in Western countries. The rest have a lifestyle or quality of life
similar to or little better than that of a peasant - that is the other
billion people.

I believe China will become a democracy along western lines with many
parties of equal standing in about 18 years time. I am certain of this. I
made a prediction 2 years ago that China would become a multi-party
western-style democracy in or around 2027 and I'll stick to that prediction.
I also should point out to you that there are more than one political party
in China NOW. But, for now, the Chinese Communist is the paramount party.
Around 2027, I predict, China will have its first free elections at the
national level, be they a parliamentary election or a presidential election
,or both, with all political parties competing on level terms. These
elections will be free and fair and the Communist party may well win in any
case, gaining a plurality if not an outright majority. Perhaps,
international observers will be allowed in to observe that it is, indeed,
free and fair, that the voters are not subject to intimidation and ballots
are not subject to interference.

2027 will be the critical year. By that year, China's middle class will
have risen to about 750 million people out of a total population then of
about 1.5 billion. In other words, the middle class will become the
majority of the population as a whole and China will become a developed
country at the lower end of the scale of development. So, I predict that
will be a significant year in China's evolution.

When China becomes a democracy, it will be a very good democracy, with
minimum corruption and maximum transparency. It is in the global interest
to keep China stable now. And, personally, I'm in favour of a US naval
blockade of the island of Taiwan to force it back to the motherland. Let's
not forget that Taiwan was shaved off China in 1949 as a consolation present
for Generalissimo Chiang Kai Shek, after he lost mainland China, party
through his own incompetence, but mainly through the incompetence of the US
Empire in East Asia at the time. For example, the US exonerated the Emperor
of Japan, Hirohito, of war crimes. Japan committed appalling atrocities in
China - particularly between 1931 and 1945 and, more particularly, between
1937 and 1945. The Nanjing massacre of 1937 was just the tip of the
iceberg. Chiang Kai Shek would not have had his consolation present of
Taiwan without the intervention of Truman's 7th fleet which patrolled the
waters between Taiwan and the mainland preventing Mao Zedong's victorious
armies attempting an invasion of the island.

So, Taiwan remains to this day, for all intents and purposes, a part of the
Empire of the USA. A reunification of Taiwan with the rest of China would
be a great confidence boost for all the people of China. It will also
reintroduce the great rival party of the Chinese Communist party, the
Kuomintang party, back directly into Chinese society. (&) I very much doubt
that the Communist party would ban it on Taiwan. Far from it. In all
probability, over a short period of time, the Kuomintang will be permitted
to set up local organizations all over China with the blessing of the
Chinese Communist party. Let's not forget that corruption is a big problem
among officialdom in China. The Chinese Communist party will see the
Kuomintang as a useful whistleblower to call out corrupt officials which the
Chinese Communist party will then remove. And, this will be in the
interests of the Kuomintang too. It will need time to set up organizations
in all the remaining 22 provinces of China as well as the 5 autonomous
regions and 4 municipalities.

Perhaps, a blockade of Taiwan won't be necessary at all, provided the
Chinese and US governments speak with one voice and make it clear to the
Taiwanese people and their government that Taiwan is a part of China and it
is to re-join China under the terms of the exceedingly generous "One
Country, Two Systems" formula, I believe, first formulated and approved by
Deng Xiaopeng. Taiwan is not recognised by the UN as a country. Hopefully,
the Taiwanese government will acquiesce and enter into direct re-unification
negotations with the Communist party under the principle of "one country,
two systems". I see no reason why the Chinese Communist party won't be
generous to the Taiwanese side in terms of the amount of autonomy it will
grant Taiwan in the event of peaceful reunification. (&&)(&&&). I mean, I
think the Chinese government would give the Taiwanese government more
autonomy than Hong Kong has now. It'll say to the Taiwan side, "You can
keep your democracy". There have been presidential elections in Taiwan
since 1996 I think. I may be wrong but I think the Chinese side will be
extremely generous (&&&&). The Chinese side have been generous to Hong Kong
and Macau already. Why not to Taiwan too in the event of a peaceful
reunification? Regarding Hong Kong, many people feared in 1997, when the
peaceful reunification of Hong Kong with the mainland occurred, that freedom
of press and freedom to protest and so on would be undermined. It wasn't.
In fact, Hong Kong has been making progress towards democracy too since
1997. For example, there are more elected representatives to the local Hong
Kong parliament (whatever it's called). The Hong Kong Diet, I think.

The top priority of a responsible US government should be bringing about a
*peaceful reunification* of Taiwan with the mainland and, if, and it's a big
if, a blockade is necessary should the Beijing and Washington governments
meet with resistance from the politicos of Taipei, then so be it. This
military blockade will be imposed by the US fleet, of course, perhaps with
some help from the usual suspects, the Brits and the Aussies and the Canucks
and so on. Taiwan's great strength is that it is an island but it is also
simultaneously its greatest weakness. It does a lot of external trade. A
military blockade should bring its economy to its knees in a matter of
months. A military blockde is not a nice thing. But consider the
alternative: a military invasion by the Chinese army which is now bound to
lead to a conquest. The numbers vastly favour the Chinese side. Chinese
military and missile equipment is getting updated all the time. And, in
recent years, I think the Taiwanese side haven't even been getting any US
military equipment because the Kuomintang controlled the parliament and were
blocking US-Taiwan arms deals negotiated by the then Taiwanese "President",
Chen Shui-Bian who was leader of the rival, Democratic Progressive party.
It'll be a dirty conquest though. And, in all wars, people will die.
Probably thousands, maybe 10s of thousands. And, here's the critical thing.
*The US will not intervene*.. The US Empire is overstretched as it is. 2
active wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and over a 1000 military bases around
the world. At home, a restless public, brimming with disappointment in
their government, as social programs are cut back.. The first losers will
be the people of Taiwan, unrecognised by the UN and unloved. Thousands will
die. Because the Taiwanese have some, albeit dated US military equipment
from the 1990s and before, the Taiwanese may be able to put up a stout
resistance for a week or so before final conquest. But, that will only mean
one thing, more civilian deaths. As you all know, many many civilians die
in war, more than soldiers. So, let's not let that happen, gentlemen and
ladies. It's a bitter pill I know. But, it is in the global interest to
integrate China into the global community of nations.

The last thing we want is a military coup in China, you know, like you had
in so called "democratic" Thailand in 2006. With a live hot potato issue
like Taiwan at the moment, such an incoming military regime is bound to lack
any sympathy for improving relations with the US. In all probability, a new
stupid arms race will begin between the two countries which will be
injurious to the cause of social justice in both countries and probably all
countries around the world.. Like it or lump it, whatever your views on the
Chinese Communist party may be, the Communist party provides an ideology for
those in government and, critically, it keeps the military of China in
check. So, ladies and gentlement, let us be sensible and not stupid. Let
us be pragmatic and not dickheads. Let us think about the future of mankind
and womankind.. (&&&&&)

Paul Carr

(&) I also predict that the peaceful reunification of Taiwan with the
mainland will accelerate the process of democratization in China. In the
event of a peaceful reunification of Taiwan with the rest of China, China
will have its first multi-party democratic elections in 2025, not 2027. A
significant 2 year acceleration.

(&&) On the other hand, if there is an invasion and conquest of the island,
it's all but certain that democratic institution in Taiwan will be
suspended. In addition, there will almost certainly be a new cold war
between "America" and China. Defense contractors and their well-paid and
well-bribed lackeys will rejoice. Few others will. War, my friends, is
just another way, for the oligarchs in a State to hold selfishly onto their
concentration of wealth and power.

(&&&) All of this, of course, boils down to trust. It's up to the USA to
place some trust in the People's Republic of China. The country has been
opening up since 1979 both politically and economically. The economic
opening up has been extensively reported in the Western media. But, the
political opening up and reform is proceeding apace too but this is not
reported so much by the Western media because they choose not to report it.

(&&&&) Ultimately, I don't have a crystal ball. But, I say to you now,
"Let's take a chance on China.".

(&&&&&) Let's bring China on as a responsible stakeholder in global affairs,
a global partner for peace and justice around the world. We need China.
China can't be contained any more. Let us harness the power of China to
bring about global justice for the citizens of the world. For the starving
of North Korea and Myanmar, do you think they're thinking about who they
want to put an "X" for in an upcoming election? I can tell you they are
not. Their stomachs are rumbling. They're thinking about when they're
going to get their next warm square meal. Let's rid the planet of poverty
first, the evil of poverty. Let's give the people of this planet, in both
developed and developing countries, social justice and equality and a sense
of meaningful participation in local institutions. Then, let us think about
democracy. The starving and the impoverished of Myanmar and North Korea, of
sub-Saharan Africa and the favellas of Rio De Janeiro and Sao Paulo are not
thinking, above all else, about who they're going to place an "X" for on
their ballot paper. They want their dignity first. Let's give them that.
And, for now, in developed countries, let's stop wanking off about the
virtues of democracy. We're just insulting and then ignoring the
impoverished of the planet when we do that. 85% of the world's population, I
believe, live in developing countries. We, in developed countries, must
adopt the agenda of the developing countries. And, their agenda is one of
development first and democracy second.

<more below>

are trying to get an
accurate estimate, and they are being blocked by the Chinese
government. They aren't satisfied, but I'm sure they'll be glad to
hear that you are.
A documentary on the Chinese move to capitalism was on the BBC last
night. But being the BBC, and not official Chinese sources, you
needn't concern yourself with their conclusions.

I'm interested in all sources, Westprog. I never wrote that I wasn't
interested in watching BBC documentaries. However, if I feel, there are
some baseless assertions in them, I may let you know about it. Stop making
guesses about me, Westprog. I keep an open mind and am willing to entertain
all viewpoints. I invite you to do the same.


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