Bush Flip-Flops; shows pessimism on Iraq
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- Date: Thu, 24 Aug 2006 23:41:05 GMT
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Bush Flip-Flops; shows pessimism on Iraq
Via NY Transfer News Collective * All the News that Doesn't Fit
[Looks as though someone who coaches Bush has been listening to
John McCain and watching the polls. -NY Transfer]
The Washington Post via MSNBC - Aug 23, 2006
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14473431/
Bush shows pessimism on Iraq
President shifts tone as he makes case for U.S. policy
By Peter Baker
The Washington Post
Of all the words that President Bush used at his news conference this
week to defend his policies in Iraq, the one that did not pass his lips
was "progress."
For three years, the president tried to reassure Americans that more
progress was being made in Iraq than they realized. But with Iraq either
in civil war or on the brink of it, Bush dropped the unseen-progress
argument in favor of the contention that things could be even worse.
The shifting rhetoric reflected a broader pessimism that has reached
into even some of the most optimistic corners of the administration -- a
sense that the Iraq venture has taken a dark turn and will not be
resolved anytime soon. Bush advisers once believed that if they met
certain benchmarks, such as building a constitutional democracy and
training a new Iraqi army, the war would be won. Now they believe they
have more or less met those goals, yet the war rages on.
While still committed to the venture, officials have privately told
friends and associates outside government that they have grown
discouraged in recent months. Even the death of al-Qaeda's leader in
Iraq proved not to be the turning point they expected, they have told
associates, and other developments have been relentlessly dispiriting,
with fewer signs of hope.
Bush acknowledged this week that he has been discouraged as well.
"Frustrated?" he asked. "Sometimes I'm frustrated. Rarely surprised.
Sometimes I'm happy. This is -- but war is not a time of joy. These
aren't joyous times. These are challenging times and they're difficult
times and they're straining the psyche of our country."
Presidential counselor Dan Bartlett said Bush and his advisers still
believe progress is being made and the war will be won. "No question
about it, the last three months have been much more challenging," he
said. "Are we always going to be pleased with the pace? No. There are
days that are frustrating. But is the overall direction going the right
way?... The answer to that is yes."
Striking change
The tone represents a striking change from what critics considered an
overly rosy portrayal of Iraq, and the latest stage in a year-long
evolution in message.
With sectarian violence flaring into some of the worst bloodshed since
the March 2003 invasion, the White House felt the need to connect with
the anxiety in the American public. "Most of the people rightly are
concerned about the security situation, as is the president," Bartlett said.
But with midterm elections just 2 1/2 months away, Bush and his team are
trying to turn the public debate away from whether the Iraq invasion has
worked out to what would happen if U.S. troops were withdrawn, as some
Democrats advocate. Using such terms as "havoc" at Monday's news
conference, Bush made no effort to suggest the situation in Iraq is
improving. Instead, he argued: "If you think it's bad now, imagine what
Iraq would look like if the United States leaves before this government
can defend itself."
Christopher F. Gelpi, a Duke University scholar whose research on public
opinion in wartime has been influential in the White House, said Bush
had little choice.
"He looks foolish and not credible if he says 'We're making progress in
Iraq,' " Gelpi said. "I think he probably would like to make that
argument, but because that's not credible given the facts on the ground,
this is the fallback.... If the only thing you can say is 'Yes, it's
bad, but it could be worse,' that really is a last-ditch argument."
As recently as two weeks ago, Bush was still making the case that things
in Iraq are better than they seem. The new Iraqi government "has shown
remarkable progress on the political front," he said on Aug. 7, calling
its mere existence "quite a remarkable achievement."
The White House and the Republican National Committee regularly send
e-mails to supporters and journalists highlighting positive
developments. In yesterday's Wall Street Journal, an article by U.S.
Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad argued that a shift in security operations
in Baghdad has shown "positive results" and said that "this initial
progress should give Iraqis, as well as Americans, hope about the future."
Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld said on a radio show this week that
violence is largely limited to four of 18 provinces and that "the
government now is starting to get its legs under it."
But Bush has been ruminating on the different nature of Iraq and the
battle with Islamic radicals and how hard it is to define victory.
"Veterans of World War II and Korea will tell you we were able to
measure progress based upon miles gained or based upon tanks destroyed,
or however people measured war in those days," he said in a speech last
week. "This is different... and it's hard on the American people and
I understand that."
Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), a strong supporter of the war, suggested
this week the Bush team has only itself to blame for setting unrealistic
expectations.
"One of the biggest mistakes we made was underestimating the size of the
task and the sacrifices that would be required," McCain said. " 'Stuff
happens,' 'mission accomplished,' 'last throes,' 'a few dead-enders.'
I'm just more familiar with those statements than anyone else because it
grieves me so much that we had not told the American people how tough
and difficult this task would be."
Such statements, he said, have "contributed enormously to the
frustration that Americans feel today because they were led to believe
this could be some kind of day at the beach." Sen. Lindsey O. Graham
(R-S.C.) offered a similar assessment. "I think we undersold how hard
the war would be," he told reporters this week. "I think we oversold how
easy it would be to create democracy. I think we missed by a mile how
much it would cost to rebuild Iraq."
Series of benchmarks
Through much of the war, Bush and his advisers focused on meeting
benchmarks laid out for rebuilding Iraq -- writing a new constitution,
electing a new parliament, bringing disaffected Sunnis into the
government and training Iraqi troops. As long as those benchmarks were
met, the president had tangible events to point to as evidence of progress.
But the last step in that original timetable, election of a permanent
parliament last December, has come and gone with no end to the violence.
When Bush mentioned that election at his news conference, he depicted it
not as progress but a sign that Iraqis want progress. "It's an
indication about the desire for people to live in a free society," he said.
Bush used to mention the number of Iraqi troops trained as another
barometer to watch, suggesting that once a new army is in place, it
could defend its country. He does not mention those numbers anymore.
According to the Pentagon, 294,000 Iraqi troops have been trained, just
shy of the goal of 325,000 by the end of the year. Yet no U.S. official
expects to turn over the war entirely to the Iraqis by then.
?Deeply concerned?
Instead, Bush has publicly emphasized how much his administration is
changing tactics to deal with the evolving threats in Iraq, and he has
privately reached out for advice about further steps to take. He had
lunch at the Pentagon last week with four Middle East experts to solicit
ideas about how to stabilize Iraq.
"I would say he was deeply concerned about how many lives are being
lost, both American and Iraqi, and how much this is costing the American
taxpayer," said Eric Davis, a Rutgers University professor who was among
those invited, who urged Bush to launch a New Deal-style economic
program in Iraq. "He would like to see progress sooner rather than later."
© 2006 The Washington Post Company
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