Iraq and Lebanon
- From: EastWindRain@xxxxxxxxx
- Date: 24 Feb 2006 22:12:28 -0800
Iraq right now is suprisingly alot like Lebanon during the 1970's.
Sectarian violence tore the country appart, the Lebanese government
just vanished. The Christiani groups thought that they could avoid
sharing power with Shia majority and the the other Islamic groups
within Lebanon. The country was mired in perpetual war until the Syrian
occupation stopped the fighting and the people of Lebanon looked at
themselves as countrymen, not as members of tribes.
I think Iraq is on a similar path. Whether or not it takes 20 or maybe
2 years of secratraian warfare to get the Sunnis, Shias, and Kurds
finally get along and play nice, eventually Iraq will end up like
Lebanon. Just like Lebanon- no ethnic group has the ability to destroy
and dominate the others. The Sunni's can hold Baghdad indefinately (the
insurgency is still not crushed). They don't have an army to crush the
Shia. The Shia have most of the oil, but they would rather have a whole
country- not a third of one. Like the Lebanonese, most Iraqis
ultimately want a whole country (despite 15 years of war, partion was
never seriously considered by any Lebanonese milita).
How long will it take- all depends. Depends on the mentality of the
Sunni, Shia, and Kurds and how skilled the United States is. The new
Iraqi viceroy, Zalmay Khalilzad, seems to be up to the challenge.
http://bismarkian.blogspot.com/
.
- Prev by Date: Arab Totalitarianism - "May Usama Bin Laden bomb you!" - Cartoon protest primitive
- Next by Date: Re: The Ugliness of War
- Previous by thread: Arab Totalitarianism - "May Usama Bin Laden bomb you!" - Cartoon protest primitive
- Next by thread: "U.S. forces ready, watchful as Iraqis handle new unrest"
- Index(es):
Relevant Pages
|
|
