@@ Deterrence by punishment offers many options for Iran to kill filthy demonic Americans. @@

Jane's Intelligence Review
March 20, 2006

Deterrence by punishment could offer last resort options for Iran

By Michael Knights

Although the U.S. and Israel might be deterred from launching wider
attacks against Iran's scattered and easily reconstituted nuclear
program, certain key targets - such as the Bushehr nuclear power
facility - are too exposed to be protected by deterrence by denial. As
a result, Iran's conventional defense also depends on a second type of
deterrent, known as deterrence by punishment.

A country typically threatens to resort to deterrence by punishment
when an opponent undertakes an action that the deterring party is
unable to prevent. Retrospective retaliation is intended to inflict
such a high cost on the attacker that it is forced to change its
strategic calculus.

Iran is most likely to threaten to use punishment-based deterrence
following a limited U.S. military strike or the imposition of a naval
blockade or sanctions. In
the event of any attack on the Iranian mainland, Tehran might launch
limited attacks on U.S. military targets in Iraq and the Persian Gulf
states or attack U.S. military shipping.

If other countries in the Persian Gulf region were to provide the U.S.
with bases for an attack, Iran might also launch assaults against
their economic infrastructure. If Iranian exports and imports were
blockaded or interdicted, Tehran might respond by attacking oil
exports from Persian Gulf Co-operation Council (PGCC) states.

Anti-shipping missiles

Iran's sea, air and land-launched anti-shipping missile arsenal is key
to its ability to damage large commercial and military vessels in the
Persian Gulf, and for this reason it remains almost entirely under
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) control. [1]

Iran's C-801K and C-802 anti-shipping missiles are advanced sea-
skimming missiles. The latter is now indigenously produced as the
Noor. Iran's defence industries are upgrading the missile's guidance
and improving its ability to be fired "over the horizon" and to
acquire targets when it reaches a predestined point. [2]

As they require relatively few support vehicles and are capable of
quickly firing 12 missiles, these provide survivable close-range anti-
shipping missile cover along the Iranian coastline and island chain.

Iran is also producing an enlarged and modernized Silkworm (the 150
kilometer land-based Ra'ad anti-shipping missile) to give it long-
range reach across the Persian Gulf from the Iranian mainland. [3]
http://www.janes.com/security/international_security/news/jir/
jir060320_1_n.shtml

Ra'ad is a sophisticated missile with an accompanying advanced radar
system designated DM-3b. The medium-range Ra'ad missile is equipped
with a self-guidance device. Ra'ad is no ordinary coastal or shipboard
projectile but a cruise missile, capable of halting Personal Gulf
shipping by blockading the Strait of Hormuz. It can also choke off
incoming and outgoing sea traffic via the Arvand river, Iraq's only
exit point for its oil exports and entrance for its vital imports.

The launching bases for the new missiles are going up at four places
on Iran's Persian Gulf coast: the northern end at Bandar-e Shah
(Khomeini) opposite the mouth of the Arvand river and facing Kuwait
and Bahrain, at Bushehr, at the big Bandar Abbas naval base and
Revolutionary Guards headquarters, and at Bandar-e Lengeh west of
Qeshm Island. [4]

From these installations, Iranian missiles will cover the tanker and
merchant ship lanes leading into the Persian Gulf from the Indian
Ocean through the Gulf of Aden.

A fifth launching base will be located on the small highly-strategic
island of Great Tumb situated just north of the Strait of Hormuz at
the mouth of the Persian Gulf.

The locations of the Ra'ad missile bases shows determination to defend
Iran's Persian Gulf shore from assault by warships or hostile marine
landings.

Iran also has six operational Shahab-3 brigades, the first of which
was established in July 2003. These are mainly equipped with standard
variants, but with others described as enhanced Shahab-3 variants,
with ranges of 1300-km, 1500-km and 2000-km respectively.

The Iranian army, also operates Man-portable Air-defence Systems
[MANPADS]. The shoulder-launched Misagh-2, believed to be a short-
range passive infra-red missile developed by the Iranian Defence
Ministry's Shahid Kazemi Industrial Complex in Tehran, is an advanced
version of the indigenously developed Misagh-1 air-defence system.
Misagh-2 has a range of 5 kilometers. [5]

Iran acquired 29 Russian Tor-M1 (SA-15 Guantlet) self-propelled
surface-to-air missile systems in December 2005.

Iran can also inflict heavy punishment on Israel. The Israelis claim
that Hezbollah has stockpiled 15,000 rockets and short-range missiles
provided by Iran and Syria, some with ranges of up to 100 km. A recent
study by Rafael, Israel's armaments development authority, assessed
that Hezbollah rockets and missiles had the range and power to destroy
the oil refinery and chemical plants in the Haifa area, considered
strategic targets by the Israelis.

Among the most powerful weapons supposedly in the Hezbollah arsenal
are Iranian-made Fajr-3 and Fajr-4 systems with ranges of up to 70 km.
There are also supposed to be enhanced 330 mm Katyushas. Hezbollah's
leadership has never officially acknowledged having such a large
inventory, but has hinted that its forces are well supplied with
rockets. Iran's military command appears prepared the country's
national defenses for any foreign attack.

Notes:
--------
[1] Iranian Special Forces
http://iranatom.ru/media/iri/for/forc20pe.htm
http://iranatom.ru/media/iri/for/forc19pe.htm

Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)
http://iranatom.ru/media/iri/for/forc18pe.htm
http://iranatom.ru/media/iri/for/forc14pe.htm

Basij Forces
http://iranatom.ru/media/iri/for/forc22pe.htm

[2] Noor sea-skimming anti-ship missile
http://iranatom.ru/media/iri/for/forc3pe.htm

[3] Ra'ad (thunder) anti-ship missile
http://iranatom.ru/media/iri/for/forc1pe.htm

Sattar-3 laser guided air-to-surface missile
http://iranatom.ru/media/iri/for/forc5pe.htm

[4] Map of anti-ship missile bases
http://iranatom.ru/media/iri/map/map10pe.htm
http://iranatom.ru/media/iri/map/map11pe.htm
http://iranatom.ru/media/iri/map/map7pe.htm

[5] Misagh-2
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/e/ef/Misagh.jpg

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_of_Iran

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