Deterrence by 'punishment' offers many options for Iran.

Jane?s Intelligence Review
March 20, 2006

Deterrence by punishment could offer last resort options for Iran

By Michael Knights

Although the U.S. and Israel might be deterred from launching wider attacks against
Iran's scattered and easily reconstituted nuclear program, certain key targets - such
as the Bushehr nuclear power facility - are too exposed to be protected by deterrence
by denial. As a result, Iran's conventional defense also depends on a second type of
deterrent, known as deterrence by punishment.

A country typically threatens to resort to deterrence by punishment when an opponent
undertakes an action that the deterring party is unable to prevent. Retrospective
retaliation is intended to inflict such a high cost on the attacker that it is forced
to change its strategic calculus.

Iran is most likely to threaten to use punishment-based deterrence following a
limited U.S. military strike or the imposition of a naval blockade or sanctions. In
the event of any attack on the Iranian mainland, Tehran might launch limited attacks
on U.S. military targets in Iraq and the Persian Gulf states or attack U.S. military
shipping.

If other countries in the Persian Gulf region were to provide the U.S. with bases for
an attack, Iran might also launch assaults against their economic infrastructure. If
Iranian exports and imports were blockaded or interdicted, Tehran might respond by
attacking oil exports from Persian Gulf Co-operation Council (PGCC) states.

Anti-shipping missiles

Iran's sea, air and land-launched anti-shipping missile arsenal is key to its ability
to damage large commercial and military vessels in the Persian Gulf, and for this
reason it remains almost entirely under Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)
control. [1]

Iran's C-801K and C-802 anti-shipping missiles are advanced sea-skimming missiles.
The latter is now indigenously produced as the Noor. Iran's defence industries are
upgrading the missile's guidance and improving its ability to be fired "over the
horizon" and to acquire targets when it reaches a predestined point. [2]

As they require relatively few support vehicles and are capable of quickly firing 12
missiles, these provide survivable close-range anti-shipping missile cover along the
Iranian coastline and island chain.

Iran is also producing an enlarged and modernized Silkworm (the 150 kilometer
land-based Ra'ad anti-shipping missile) to give it long-range reach across the
Persian Gulf from the Iranian mainland. [3]
http://www.janes.com/security/international_security/news/jir/jir060320_1_n.shtml

Ra'ad is a sophisticated missile with an accompanying advanced radar system
designated DM-3b. The medium-range Ra'ad missile is equipped with a self-guidance
device. Ra'ad is no ordinary coastal or shipboard projectile but a cruise missile,
capable of halting Personal Gulf shipping by blockading the Strait of Hormuz. It can
also choke off incoming and outgoing sea traffic via the Arvand river, Iraq?s only
exit point for its oil exports and entrance for its vital imports.

The launching bases for the new missiles are going up at four places on Iran?s
Persian Gulf coast: the northern end at Bandar-e Shah (Khomeini) opposite the mouth
of the Arvand river and facing Kuwait and Bahrain, at Bushehr, at the big Bandar
Abbas naval base and Revolutionary Guards headquarters, and at Bandar-e Lengeh west
of Qeshm Island. [4]

From these installations, Iranian missiles will cover the tanker and merchant ship
lanes leading into the Persian Gulf from the Indian Ocean through the Gulf of Aden.

A fifth launching base will be located on the small highly-strategic island of Great
Tumb situated just north of the Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Persian Gulf.

The locations of the Ra'ad missile bases shows determination to defend Iran?s Persian
Gulf shore from assault by warships or hostile marine landings.

Iran also has six operational Shahab-3 brigades, the first of which was established
in July 2003. These are mainly equipped with standard variants, but with others
described as enhanced Shahab-3 variants, with ranges of 1300-km, 1500-km and 2000-km
respectively.

The Iranian army, also operates Man-portable Air-defence Systems [MANPADS]. The
shoulder-launched Misagh-2, believed to be a short-range passive infra-red missile
developed by the Iranian Defence Ministry's Shahid Kazemi Industrial Complex in
Tehran, is an advanced version of the indigenously developed Misagh-1 air-defence
system. Misagh-2 has a range of 5 kilometers. [5]

Iran acquired 29 Russian Tor-M1 (SA-15 Guantlet) self-propelled surface-to-air
missile systems in December 2005.

Iran can also inflict heavy punishment on Israel. The Israelis claim that Hezbollah
has stockpiled 15,000 rockets and short-range missiles provided by Iran and Syria,
some with ranges of up to 100 km. A recent study by Rafael, Israel's armaments
development authority, assessed that Hezbollah rockets and missiles had the range and
power to destroy the oil refinery and chemical plants in the Haifa area, considered
strategic targets by the Israelis.

Among the most powerful weapons supposedly in the Hezbollah arsenal are Iranian-made
Fajr-3 and Fajr-4 systems with ranges of up to 70 km. There are also supposed to be
enhanced 330 mm Katyushas. Hezbollah's leadership has never officially acknowledged
having such a large inventory, but has hinted that its forces are well supplied with
rockets.
Iran?s military command appears prepared the country?s national defenses for any
foreign attack.

Notes:
--------
[1] Iranian Special Forces
http://iranatom.ru/media/iri/for/forc20pe.htm
http://iranatom.ru/media/iri/for/forc19pe.htm

Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)
http://iranatom.ru/media/iri/for/forc18pe.htm
http://iranatom.ru/media/iri/for/forc14pe.htm

Basij Forces
http://iranatom.ru/media/iri/for/forc22pe.htm

[2] Noor sea-skimming anti-ship missile
http://iranatom.ru/media/iri/for/forc3pe.htm

[3] Ra'ad (thunder) anti-ship missile
http://iranatom.ru/media/iri/for/forc1pe.htm

Sattar-3 laser guided air-to-surface missile
http://iranatom.ru/media/iri/for/forc5pe.htm

[4] Map of anti-ship missile bases
http://iranatom.ru/media/iri/map/map10pe.htm
http://iranatom.ru/media/iri/map/map11pe.htm
http://iranatom.ru/media/iri/map/map7pe.htm

[5] Misagh-2
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/e/ef/Misagh.jpg

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_of_Iran


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