@@ British Jane's Defense in 1984: Iran will have an atom bomb within two years! @@
- From: "Arash" <A7000@xxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Wed, 1 Mar 2006 08:29:00 -0500
Associated Press (AP)
February 27, 2006
Iran ever a "threat", never an atomic power!
Iran points up challenges of nuclear technology
Charles Hanley
The Iranians may have an atom bomb within two years, the authoritative British Jane?s
Defence Weekly warned. That was in 1984, two decades ago!
Four years later, the world was again put on notice, this time by Iraq, that Tehran
was at the nuclear threshold, and in 1992 the CIA foresaw atomic arms in Iranian
hands by 2000. Then U.S. officials pushed that back to 2003. And in 1997 the Israelis
confidently predicted a new date - 2005.
Now, as 2006 wears on, and a global focus sharpens on Iran?s nuclear ambitions, the
coming of any Iranian doomsday arsenal looks to be years away, experts say. Those
past predictions consistently underplayed the technological challenges of a bomb
program.
Iran itself, which said Tuesday it has begun enriching small amounts of uranium,
denies its enrichment program is intended to produce anything beyond weaker fuel for
civilian nuclear power plants, not the highly enriched uranium that can fuel a bomb.
The United Nations Security Council is expected to take up the issue next month, when
skeptics may push for sanctions against Tehran. But few specialists view a potential
Iranian bomb as an imminent threat. In fact, the latest estimate from the CIA and
other U.S. intelligence agencies sees no Iranian bomb before the next decade. Israeli
defence experts agree, speaking of a 2012 date.
The technology involved - uranium gas centrifuges - guarantees delays, said
Washington analyst Corey Hinderstein.
"It?s a very complicated process requiring precision from design and engineering to
manufacture and installation, and there?s a lot of room for problems", said Corey
Hinderstein, who for a decade has tracked Iranian nuclear developments with the
Institute for Science and International Security
(http://www.isis-online.org/about/staff/chinderstein.html).
http://epic-usa.org/_pics/_forum/hinderstein.jpg
Corey Hinderstein
Enrichment occurs in vast arrays of centrifuges, thin-walled cylinders of strong but
superlight materials - typically three to six feet tall and several centimetres
wide - into which uranium gas is fed. Each of these "rotors", with just a few
milligrams of gas, spins on its axis at up to 70,000 revolutions per minute,
separating the heavier uranium-238 from the rarer U-235, the isotope whose nucleus
can "fission" to produce energy.
Pumped through thousands of "cascading" cylinders, the mixture?s content is gradually
boosted to over three per cent U-235, the level needed for power generators. If
extended, the process can produce 90% enriched uranium, the stuff of bombs.
But centrifuges vibrate, shatter, fail regularly, because of imprecise machining,
slight imbalances magnified at superhigh speeds, imperfect bearings.
"A vast percentage of centrifuges have to be rejected in testing, up to 60%
rejection", said Frank Barnaby (http://www.granta.com/authors/2190), a former British
weapons scientist, now with the Oxford Research Group
(http://www.oxfordresearchgroup.org.uk/aboutus/staff.htm).
The Iranians plan to install 50,000 centrifuges in huge underground halls at Natanz,
Iran. But fewer than half the 1140 machines they had assembled by 2004, using
ultrathin aluminum, were good enough to use in cascades, the UN nuclear agency has
reported. And problems develop not only with materials, said a retired U.S.
centrifuge specialist.
"There are also problems with scoops and other things on the inside. You have to
design the electronics that give you variable frequencies. You have to lubricate them
properly, hook them together properly, maintain the vacuum," said this scientist,
speaking on condition he not be named because of his sensitive former government
position.
Hinderstein?s ISIS calculates that at its last known assembly rate of about 100 per
month, Iran would take years to emplace thousands of centrifuges at Natanz, a plant
that theoretically could eventually produce highly enriched uranium for dozens of
bombs a year.
The ISIS experts suggest Iran could speed things up with a basic small plant of 1500
centrifuges, to produce enough bomb fuel for one weapon. Even then, the assembly,
testing and production process would take the project into 2009, they estimate.
And, asked Frank Barnaby, "who do you deter with just one weapon?"
Even before the centrifuge stage, however, Iran must overcome another technical
problem.
Too many impurities remain in the gas produced from processed uranium ore, or
yellowcake, at Iran?s uranium conversion facility, the magazine Science reported last
month, quoting an unidentified U.S. government official.
The gas conversion facility was built on a Chinese design, but Beijing backed out of
the project in 1998, leaving the Iranians without Chinese expertise to ensure the
best product.
Contaminants in the uranium hexafluoride gas can block valves and piping. "Those
impurities do muck up your centrifuges", Frank Barnaby said
(http://www.granta.com/audio). "It?s not a problem if you want 3.5% enriched uranium
for power plants, but if you go to 90% these impurities are a major problem".
Few specialists doubt that the Iranians, with years of work, could overcome such
engineering problems. But are they seeking a bomb?
Mustafa Kibaroglu (http://bcsia.ksg.harvard.edu/person.cfm?program=CORE&item_id=861),
of Ankara?s Bilkent University
(http://catalog.bilkent.edu.tr/current/instructor/i2087.html), told The Associated
Press nine years ago that Iran was incapable of building a nuclear weapon earlier
than 2012. Now that his is a widely accepted timetable, this Turkish expert, who has
consulted with Iranian leaders, says politics, more than technology, will be the
deciding factor.
"Having the capability to build weapons doesn?t mean that they will build nuclear
weapons", he said. "This is an issue yet to be decided by Iran?s (Muslim) clerical
leadership. This issue is not to be discounted".
http://www.canada.com/montrealgazette/news/story.html?id=8367e0e9-149b-4a1e-9c74-1a979bd3e325&k=72529
.
- Prev by Date: @@ There is No Iranian 'Crisis' @@
- Next by Date: @@ Jew: We can live with a nuclear Iran @@
- Previous by thread: @@ There is No Iranian 'Crisis' @@
- Next by thread: @@ Jew: We can live with a nuclear Iran @@
- Index(es):
Relevant Pages
|
|
