@@ Guess who likes the G.I.'s in Iraq: Look in Iran's Halls of Power @@

New York Times
January 29, 2006

Guess Who Likes the G.I.'s in Iraq (Look in Iran's Halls of Power)

By Michael Slackman

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2006/01/29/weekinreview/29slackman.184.jpg
Defiance -- An Iranian woman showing support for her nation's nuclear program.

Tehran -- Not long after the collapse of Saddam's regime in Iraq in 2003, a top aide
to L. Paul Bremer III, then the head of the American occupation authority there,
excitedly explained that Iraq had just become the front line in Washington's effort
to neutralize Iran as a regional force.

If America could promote a moderate, democratic, American-friendly alternate center
of Shia Islam in Iraq, the official said, it could defang one of its most implacable
foes in the Middle East.

Iran, in other words, had for decades been both the theological center of Shia Islam
and a regional sponsor of militant anti-American Islamic groups like Hezbollah. But
if westward-looking Shias ? secular or religious ? came to power in southern Iraq,
they could give the lie to arguments that Shias had to see America as an enemy.

So far, though, Iran's mullahs aren't feeling much pain from the Americans next door.
In fact, officials at all levels of government here say they see the American
presence as a source of strength for themselves as they face the Bush administration.

In almost every conversation about Iran's nuclear showdown with the United States and
Europe, they cite the Iraq war as a factor Iran can play to its own advantage.

"America is extremely vulnerable right now", said Akbar Alami, a member of the Iran's
Parliament often critical of the government but on this point hewing to the
government line. "If the U.S. takes any unwise action" to punish Iran for pursuing
its nuclear program, he said, "certainly the U.S. and other countries will share the
harm".

Iranians know that American forces, now stretched thin, are unlikely to invade Iran.
And if the United States or Europe were to try a small-scale, targeted attack, the
proximity of American forces makes them potential targets for retaliation. Iranians
also know the fighting in Iraq has helped raise oil prices, and any attempt to impose
sanctions could push prices higher.

In addition, the Iranians have longstanding ties to influential Shia religious
leaders in Iraq, and at least one recently promised that his militia would make real
trouble for the Americans if they moved militarily against Iran.

All of those calculations have reduced Iranian fears of going ahead with their
nuclear program ? a prospect that frightens not just the United States, Europe and
Israel, but many of the Sunni Muslim-dominated nations in the region, including
Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

In recent days, Iran has moved aggressively to restart its nuclear program, insisting
that it is aimed only at research and producing energy. The United States and Europe,
who remain suspicious of Iran's intentions, are trying to block it, with cooperation
from Russia and China, and have threatened to take Iran to the United Nations
Security Council.

Disagreement between the West and Iran on this issue is not new. But Iran's apparent
confidence that it can move ahead with little risk of serious punishment is. It is
part of a change in the way Iran has decided to address the world, abandoning a
strategy of diplomatic compromise pursued by the reformist president Muhammad
Khatami, who served from 1997 until last year.

The hard-line conservative, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who was elected in June to replace
Mr. Khatami, has joined the religious leadership in a policy of confrontation.

With the Americans stuck fighting a protracted, murky war in Iraq, the Iranians felt
they were in a position to defy the West even over the nuclear issue.

A Western diplomat based in Tehran said that Iran's recent behavior has been
infuriating, an apparent effort to undermine the diplomatic process. The envoy said
that in August, when Europe was about to offer what it called a compromise, the
Iranians balked even before seeing the proposal.

"Before we even met, they said: 'We know what's in it. We know what we are looking
for is not there,' " the diplomat said, insisting on remaining anonymous so as not to
antagonize Iranian authorities.

The West has tried to push back, but Iran has barely budged. Part of the reason, the
diplomat said, is that "what was seen as power then may be seen as weakness now",
referring to the American presence in Iraq.

This month, Iran welcomed the Iraqi cleric Muktada Sadr in a way that helped send
just that message. The cleric's militia, the Mahdi Army, rose up twice in 2004
against the American military. Mr. Sadr and his followers have since joined the
political process in Iraq, but during his visit to Tehran he warned that any attack
on Iran could inspire a response from his militia.

"If neighboring Islamic countries, including Iran, become the target of attacks, we
will support them", he said in comments reported by The Associated Press. "The Mahdi
Army is beyond the Iraqi Army. It was established to defend Islam".

Not all Iranians think their country's aggressive drive to resume its nuclear program
will work as a long-term strategy.

Iran's influence in Iraq and Afghanistan has limits, said Davoud Hermidas Bavand, a
political science professor at Tehran University. "It might work as a deterrent for a
military strike against Iran but it is not a deterrent to lift the pressure against
Iran's nuclear program".

Still, there is near unanimity in the government that the nuclear program should not
be canceled. Nasser Hadian, a political science professor at Tehran University who
said he has close ties with many in government, said there was a compromise among the
core factions over how far to go in the nuclear program. Basically, he said, there is
agreement to develop a weapons capability, but not to go as far as building a bomb.

The logic, he said, is based on an assessment that if Iran builds a bomb, it could
set off an arms race in the Middle East that could "eventually undermine Iran's
conventional superiority if others, like Syria and Egypt, get the bomb".

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/01/29/weekinreview/29slackman.html


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