Why Modi will score a landslide win again
- From: kerty9@xxxxxxxxx
- Date: Fri, 7 Dec 2007 17:43:05 -0800 (PST)
Why Modi will score a landslide win again
Arvind J Bosmia
rediff.com
December 07, 2007
With the Congress's electoral strategies formulated in terms of its
golden bygone era, the Hindutva mascot, Gujarat Chief Minister
Narendra Modi, is all set to score a massive landslide victory in the
coming assembly election -- much bigger than the one he scored in
2002.
This is the most one-sided election I have covered in my 28-year
journalistic career, where there is no electoral issue except the
incumbent chief minister who looms larger than life before the
Congress's has-been and would-be small-timers. When a Tendulkar faces
gali-mohalla bowlers a double century is
certain.
In Gujarat, the Congress's electoral brahmastra was KHAM (Kshatriya,
Harijan, Adivasi and Muslim). Major non-Muslim components of KHAM have
migrated to the Bharatiya Janata Party under the compulsions created
by the serial communal riots since 1985. The Congress has failed to
reclaim them as its aggressive
wooing of Muslims has put off the other three communities
In this communal polarisation, Modi has built a halo of Hindu taranhar
(saviour) around himself, further consolidated by highly focused
publicity campaigns like Vikas Purush, a leader with a difference.
This special chemistry with the people has allowed him to get away
with riding rough-shod over BJP workers, fellow leaders and other
wings of the Sangh Parivar. The Kisan Sangh's hostility cannot lose
him farming community votes because farmers have prospered under Modi
Raj. The Bajrang Dal and Vishwa Hindu Parishad cannot challenge him
because he is perceived as Bajrang Dal Plus. Other Sangh Parivar
constituents need him for survival, but the reverse is not true.
This special bond with the public helped him overcome the boycott
resorted to by BJP workers during the last panchayat, municipality and
municipal corporation elections. The refrain was, who will get the
public to the voting booth if the party workers are not around? The
voters came on their own initiative, and voted for the BJP. Through
sheer charisma Modi single-handedly scored landslide victories in all
three elections.
Modi's direct-dial relationship with his voters will hold good in the
assembly election, bypassing the need to depend on the party to
deliver the votes. If landslides could be scored in elections where he
was indirectly involved, there has to be a bigger response where his
leadership is directly on offer.
No one understands the hyper-Muslim phobia of Gujarat voters than
Modi, who with his Sohrabuddin comment has launched a well-crafted
strategy to create a situation where voters will turn up at the voting
booths on their own to reveal which side they are on. Modi knows it
will be on his side. If there is penal
action by the Election Commission or if a criminal case is registered
against Modi, the backlash will be even bigger.
The Patel-Thakur castes' alienation is more media hype than ground
reality. Modi's appeal to Hindus cuts across caste lines. Though Modi
is an OBC, high caste darbar kshatriyas regard him as their leader.
Yet, there are some voters who will be overwhelmingly against Modi.
They are government servants and school teachers; Muslims; BJP workers
who feel Modi has totally neglected them in power-sharing.
The government servants have borne the brunt of Modi's high-geared
publicity campaigns while the teachers were punished for habitual
absenteeism and poor examination results of their students. Used to
lax ways for years, they really detest Modi.
Muslims, for obvious reasons, do not want him as they view him as the
ultimate shaitan (devil).
BJP workers realised they were no longer treated as members of the
ruling party. They could not peddle influence nor were they appointed
as directors in public corporations. Modi was quite happy to use
bureaucrats instead. Ordinary voters who far outnumber these Modi-
haters will overwhelmingly favour Modi.
Arvind J Bosmia is an Ahmedabad-based freelance journalist
.
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