Re: Congress playing caste card to win in Gujarat
- From: kerty9@xxxxxxxxx
- Date: Tue, 27 Nov 2007 23:40:43 -0800 (PST)
On Nov 28, 12:33 am, ker...@xxxxxxxxx wrote:
Congress back to playing caste card to win in Gujarat
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It seems Congress is trying its age old trick - caste card to defeat
Modi in Gujarat. Caste is a primary consideration in fielding Mr.
Dinsha Patel against Modi because Patels are in majority in Maninagar
constituency and it sends a right signal to Patels all over Gujarat.
Congress is hoping that it will help it divide Patels at entire
Gujarat level by making it a Patels V Modi referendum. Dinsha Patel
might lose to Modi in Maninangar but congress could win at state level
by dividing Patel votes, a major backbone of BJP power. That is the
thinking behind nomination of Dinsha Patel against Modi.
Congress has always won in Gujarat by dividing people and playing on
caste lines - its famous KHAM(kshtriya, harijans, advasis and moslem)
alliance along with dividing the votes of opponents kept it in power
no matter how bad congress performed in Gujarat. Patels and Shah/
Baniyas are traditionally two main power centers in Gujarat and
Congress have won all election by rellying rest of Gujaratis against
them. Congress used to win elections in Gujarat by creating a parallel
power-structure against them thru KHAM. In this election too, congress
has returned to same tested strategy. It is wooing back tribals and
dandling sops to them. Congress at state and central level have
focussed on wooing back tribals with sops. Tribal area was the first
stop for Sonia when she officially launched congress campaign in
Gujarat. Harijans and Moslems never left the Congress fold. Still,
moslems never vote for congress unless they extract their pound of
flesh and congress has been very generous to them, plus stroking
revenge against Modi is seen as a great motivator for Moslems.
Congress still has to make up for loss of tribal votes and small
portion of Kshatriya votes. To compensate for loss of tribal and
Kshatriya votes to BJP, congress is also trying to create a wedge on
gender line - women's group was Sonia's second campaign stop. Sonia's
focus on women's security issue in Gujarat, however contrived it is in
the context of Gujarat, is a big salvo to divide its opponents votes
on gender line. So Congress feels their wining formula is back in
place. There is no way congress can lose if this strategy plays out.
Prospect of dividing Patel votes gives it an added certainty. And If
congress does succeed in dividing Patel votes at Gujarat level,
congress will romp home victorious no matter how popular may be Modi.
This will be a true test for Modi as to how powerful he is as a
unifier in Gujarat. Only time will tell if congress will succeed with
its divisive caste-based strategies in Gujarat. If Modi can defy all
odds, that will be end of Congress in Gujarat - Modi will finish off
congress's key formula to power in Gujarat.
This analysis shows how comprehensive has been Congress strategy to
dislodge Modi and BJP in Gujarat. If you look at BJP in comparision,
it seems it has no strategy except Modi and his development of
Gujarat. It is a flawed strategy and has failed for NDA but BJP has
not learnt its lessons. Development can never be even and one can
always poke hole in it and find constituencies that have not
benefitted from touted development - it gives them emotional reason to
vote against BJP.
Secondly, the dissidents and defectors are a big liability for BJP.
Division of Patel-Baniya vote base would be fatal for BJP because they
traditionally represent anti-congress base - that is why congress has
put up candidates from such communites to be able to divide them.
Thirdly, entry of Uma is a big blow to BJP. She will divide
traditional Hindu votes. In election, whoever gets to divide the
opponent gets to win, not issues or accomplishments.
Fourthly, lack of VHP support is going to be a pain in the neck for
BJP. In the past, active campaigning VHP workers was instrumental in
dislodging congress in Gujarat. This time it could work in dislodging
BJP. That would be very short-sighted and self-destructive for VHP as
congress has no love lost for VHP. Congress will go after rank and
file of VHP on the pretext of Gujarat riots and they will bear the
brunt of congress's revenge politics.
Fifthly, indifferent approach of RSS in distancing itself from
elections in Gujarat will prove destructive for BJP as well as RSS.
RSS has failed to clamp down on dissenters, VHP and Uma, and instead
struck a dubious pose of neutrality, a blindsighted Bhisma. In a
Mahaharata war, rightious side can not win if one tries to be Balrama
instead of Krishna. But than RSS leadership is never known to be a
visionary and effective in dealing with congress juggernaught. Because
of RSS's neutral attitudes, national leadership of BJP too has not
been able to be firm in dealing with dissenters like Keshubhai Patel
- BJP does not how to deal with them for fear of displeasing RSS - BJP
is waiting for green light from RSS to deal with them decisively, and
now it is too late anyway, the damage is already done.
There is no way BJP could possibly be defeated in Gujarat. BJP had
Gujarat in a platter and only BJP could defeat it. But once again, it
proves that hindutva lack a character - it can not hold power, period.
It remains reactionary and defeatist. Even if it comes to power by
some miracle or shifting tides of time or political winds of change,
it will find ways to oppose itself and snatch defeat out of the jaws
of victory. If BJP still manages to defy all odds, Modi will acquire
larger than life status and many national BJP leaders will feel puny
and insecure and will try to cut him down to size. But that is an
aftermath only if Modi can deliver Gujarat to BJP. Stakes for greater
for BJP than Modi. That is why BJP's national leadership by wholesale
has camped in Gujarat. But they can't do didley if ground realities
are stolen by congress right under from their very nose. Elections are
not won by speeches. They are won by building coalitions and uniting
the base. The election still could go either way as both sides are
evenly matched, something unthinkable just a few months back. And as
of now, congress has the wining edge over BJP.
.
- References:
- Congress playing caste card to win in Gujarat
- From: kerty9
- Congress playing caste card to win in Gujarat
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