Congress playing caste card to win in Gujarat
- From: kerty9@xxxxxxxxx
- Date: Tue, 27 Nov 2007 22:33:23 -0800 (PST)
Congress back to playing caste card to win in Gujarat
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It seems Congress is trying its age old trick - caste card to defeat
Modi in Gujarat. Caste is a primary consideration in fielding Mr.
Dinsha Patel against Modi because Patels are in majority in Maninagar
constituency and it sends a right signal to Patels all over Gujarat.
Congress is hoping that it will help it divide Patels at entire
Gujarat level by making it a Patels V Modi referendum. Dinsha Patel
might lose to Modi in Maninangar but congress could win at state level
by dividing Patel votes, a major backbone of BJP power. That is the
thinking behind nomination of Dinsha Patel against Modi.
Congress has always won in Gujarat by dividing people and playing on
caste lines - its famous KHAM(kshtriya, harijans, advasis and moslem)
alliance along with dividing the votes of opponents kept it in power
no matter how bad congress performed in Gujarat. Patels and Shah/
Baniyas are traditionally two main power centers in Gujarat and
Congress have won all election by rellying rest of Gujaratis against
them. Congress used to win elections in Gujarat by creating a parallel
power-structure against them thru KHAM. In this election too, congress
has returned to same tested strategy. It is wooing back tribals and
dandling sops to them. Congress at state and central level have
focussed on wooing back tribals with sops. Tribal area was the first
stop for Sonia when she officially launched congress campaign in
Gujarat. Harijans and Moslems never left the Congress fold. Still,
moslems never vote for congress unless they extract their pound of
flesh and congress has been very generous to them, plus stroking
revenge against Modi is seen as a great motivator for Moslems.
Congress still has to make up for loss of tribal votes and small
portion of Kshatriya votes. To compensate for loss of tribal and
Kshatriya votes to BJP, congress is also trying to create a wedge on
gender line - women's group was Sonia's second campaign stop. Sonia's
focus on women's security issue in Gujarat, however contrived it is in
the context of Gujarat, is a big salvo to divide its opponents votes
on gender line. So Congress feels their wining formula is back in
place. There is no way congress can lose if this strategy plays out.
Prospect of dividing Patel votes gives it an added certainty. And If
congress does succeed in dividing Patel votes at Gujarat level,
congress will romp home victorious no matter how popular may be Modi.
This will be a true test for Modi as to how powerful he is as a
unifier in Gujarat. Only time will tell if congress will succeed with
its divisive caste-based strategies in Gujarat. If Modi can defy all
odds, that will be end of Congress in Gujarat - Modi will finish off
congress's key formula to power in Gujarat.
.
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