The End of Pakistan
- From: srirangan@xxxxxxxxx
- Date: 22 Oct 2005 10:35:22 -0700
The End of Pakistan
URL: http://www.india-defence.com/reports/695
Date: 22/10/2005
Usually, wars and natural disasters unite a nation, but the massive
earthquake in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) and five districts of the
North West Frontier Province have badly divided Pakistan.
The division is of three or four kinds, the Pakistan army is upset with
General Pervez Musharraf for neglecting its own losses, at least one
hundred and ten military bases, ammunition dumps, units, training
centres, family stations and road communication infrastructure were
destroyed or partially damaged in the earthquake disaster, and upto
five hundred officers and men have died. But the army has complained
that the Pakistan president, who also happens to be the army chief, has
concentrated on civilian casualties and relief, to the military's
neglect.
The second division is between the army and the people, especially the
disaster victims in PoK and in NWFP, although the angst is deeper and
more openly expressed in Occupied Kashmir. The Punjabi-dominated army
is being accused of bias towards the victims, who are for the most part
not Punjabis but Kashmiris or Pathans.
This bias was reflected in earlier army relief operations in
non-Punjabi areas in Baluchistan especially and to an extent in Sindh.
Because Pakistan's nine corps commanders, the nation's highest
decision-making body, voted to pull the army out of its mess,
overruling Musharraf who showed a civilian bias, the army it was that
got its own first and longest attention, to the neglect of general
disaster relief.
This has made the situation far worse for the victims than it would be
if the army had been less selfish - or, at any rate, worried less
about self-preservation.
The loudest and harshest complaints are in PoK, where the victims have
been comparing the situation to J and K, where the Indian government
not only deployed the army to its optimum requirement for rescue and
relief work, but also had the capacity and large heartedness to send
relief to Pakistan. Said a Western diplomat, "They say India not only
managed Kashmir but is also managing the victims in Pakistan. Why
couldn't Pakistan do even less, bring relief to its own people?"
The third division is between Pakistani civil society and the military
regime, and Musharraf's acceptability is at its lowest, if he was ever
acceptable as a military dictator. Suddenly, the concept of Pakistani
nationhood has been knocked out of most thinking Pakistanis, who
don't see the state coming to the rescue and relief of its citizens.
National morale is down, Pakistani nationalism is at its lowest, and
when the Pakistan army, which has always claimed to represent the
highest interests of the nation, has been exposed at its self-serving
worst, there are no hopes left for Pakistanis who know and agonise
about it, who have nothing to look forward to.
The fourth division has slowly come about with the Middle East, whose
support was not equal to claims of Muslim brotherhood with Pakistan,
and particular anger has been expressed at the Arab regimes. The
countries which did not dint in their support were essentially the
non-Islamic countries, the US, India, UK, Japan, and the European
Union, and this has lead to a lot of internal questioning about
Pakistan's strenuous attempts since independence to identify with the
Muslim Middle East and play down its South Asian identity.
Finally, there is the division among the various provinces in respect
of the diminishing future and prospects of the Pakistani state. Less
outspoken than before, but at the same time, the provinces know that
they are pretty much on their own, and Sindhis, the Baluch, the Pathans
of NWFP and the Kashmiris know they can expect nothing from a
Punjabi-dominated federal structure.
Indeed, this may also be Musharraf's own realisation, that his hands
are severely tied when he wants to take a national perspective on
calamities such as this, that recognise no provincial boundaries, and
straddle countries and continents. Indeed, so precarious is
Musharraf's position that Pakistani watchers in the diplomatic
community fear for his longevity in office and for his personal safety.
The biggest change for Musharraf is that he no longer commands awe and
respect in the military. The military thinks he is too sold on the
peace process with India, that his initial indifference to the army's
huge losses in the disaster stemmed from a belief that the military had
lost its preeminence in India-Pakistan relations, and that security
threats from India were exaggerated.
By cornering all the national relief resources for itself, and allowing
only international aid to flow to the disaster victims, the army has
re-established its institutional superiority, and won't allow
Musharraf to degrade it further, or devalue its national importance. In
this, the majority of corps commanders are against him.
This was typically evident when a Pakistani newspaper carried our
intelligence ("India dithers on PoK aid ops from J and K," 14 October
2005) on Western requests to move relief teams and materials from J and
K to Pakistan-occupied Kashmir across the LoC. Because the logistic
problems were insurmountable, India kept the proposal hanging. The
Western argument was that access would be faster from J and K, whose
better infrastructure was intact or quickly repaired after the quake,
and if the jihadi threat to their relief work became acute, they could
quickly pull out to the Indian side.
The Pakistani newspaper report of our intelligence was put up to
Musharraf's office, which called a meeting of the corps commanders. One
does not know Musharraf's aim, but it may well have been to facilitate
the Western teams from J and K into PoK by securing the relief routes
with army protection, and temporarily clearing the mined and
IED-implanted border and LoC.
But after a debate, the corps commanders shut the subject. PoK would
not be opened to such large-scale international relief operations from
the Indian side. "At least there was a debate," said a Western
diplomat. But the tragedy is that the victims lost a chance of relief.
The death toll in the tragedy could cross one lakh, the waters in PoK
are contaminated. Malaria and diarrhoea are spreading, and the outbreak
of other diseases is imminent. For years, Pakistan has been a failed
state, pulling along somehow, but now, its disintegration has become a
daily and visible affair. Instead of hampering the process, the
Pakistan military is hastening it. Very soon, all that will be left of
the state is a failed military.
.
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