National Australia Bank sees Greece exiting the EU within next year


http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/fii-view/eu-break-up-backtable-see-greek-exit12-months-nab_701262.html

EU break-up back on table; see Greek exit in 12 months: NAB

Published on Mon, May 07, 2012 at 16:01

Nick Parsons of National Australia Bank sees Greece exiting the
European Union within the next 12 months, bringing the possibility of
a EU break up back on the table.

In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Parsons explains that if Greece’s
extreme right party comes to power, they will renegotiate Greece’s
membership of the EU. “Given that the bailout package was negotiated
last year, there is a going to be considerable uncertainty in that
market over the course of the next few weeks,” he added.

The possibility of an EU break up was diverted last year with various
measures such as the long term refinance operations (LTRO) and the
restructuring of Greece’s debt.

Even though the break of the EU is a negative event, Parsons believes
it will ultimately lead to a stronger euro instead of a weak one. “We
believe the euro will end this year 2012 stronger than it is today and
stronger than it was at the beginning of the year,” he said. His level
for the euro at the end of 2012 is 1.36 to the dollar.

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