can the pinas become a first world country as gloria claims?
- From: rambo the fugitive bedol <bernardsongco@xxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Tue, 26 Jun 2007 11:44:12 -0700
ows
'Grandiose schemes, with a near-certainty of failure, will only strip
her of whatever goodwill that remains toward her.'
President Arroyo said in Singapore her dream is to see the Philippines
joining the ranks of First World countries 20 years hence. Is her
dream realizable?
Let's see where the Philippines is now and what the standard of living
will have to be to match that of First World countries. Let's take the
per capita gross domestic product as the baseline. In 2006, this was
placed at $5,000 per annum. Given a per capita GNP growth of 7
percent, a very ambitious figure considering the rather high
population growth of around 2.8 percent, the per capita GDP will be
doubling every 10 years. So in 20 years we can expect the per capita
GNP at $20,000.
Not too bad? But that figure is still way below Singapore's, of which
our latest data on hand is $27,800, which was way back in 1991 or 16
years ago.
(The figures given were based on purchasing power parity, which
compares local currencies with the US dollar in terms of the power to
buy a given basket of goods. PPP rather than the exchange rate is the
usual conversion factor used in comparing standards of living.)
But a $20,000 per capita GNP is good enough. At that level we would
have eliminated the worst aspects of mass poverty. People would have
enough and in addition enjoy a modicum of creature comforts.
What then would it take to reach that threshold in 20 years? We have
already mentioned our runaway growth rate that eats most of the
increase in economic output. Given a birth rate that is edging toward
3 percent, the economy, thus, has to grow by a sustained 10 percent
yearly. China at the moment - and Singapore in the past - routinely
posts double-digit growth rates. So a 10 percent growth cannot be
ruled out of hand.
But it would not come under the remaining three years of Gloria's
rule. The first quarter growth rate was at 6.9 percent. Economic
managers were already jumping in glee at that figure even though they
knew quite well that the fluke was a result of heavy election
spending. And sustained growth certainly will not come either if
Gloria continues to rule after 2010 in violation of the Constitution.
Why? Because the country would never succeed in putting in place
institutions that would promote a vibrant economy. The rule of law and
predictability of policies - the key to attracting and harnessing
capital - would never prosper under an administration that has lost
its legitimacy.
For Gloria's dream to become a reality, she can do the country a favor
by removing herself from the scene. Perhaps not right away. But if she
can manage the transition smoothly to post-2010, that would be a good
start in the country's journey to first world status.
Upon such modest accomplishments lie her much-sought for legacy.
Grandiose schemes, with a near-certainty of failure, will only strip
her of whatever goodwill that remains toward her from a people on whom
she has inflicted grievous wrongs and suffering in the last six years.
.
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