Miamigate?
- From: marcelocrisanto@xxxxxxx
- Date: 1 Dec 2005 15:02:16 -0800
By Jesús Arboleya Cervera --
Used as a suffix in certain instances, "gate" means to Americans what
"getting into a mess" means to us Cubans. It comes from the word
"Watergate," and a constant feature is that the Cuban-American
ultraright from Miami is always involved in the "gates."
That's what happened with the Watergate and Irangate messes, so it's
not unreasonable to think that the recent arrest of Santiago Álvarez
in Miami could be the forerunner of "Miamigate."
>>From what I've read, everybody is wracking their brains trying to
figure out what the U.S. government's strategy is, regarding this
detention. In reality, it makes no sense to arrest Santiago Álvarez
when the Bush administration has gone to such ridiculous lengths to
protect Luis Posada Carriles and please his allies in Miami.
To boot, prosecutors are not only charging Álvarez with Posada's
illegal entry into the U.S. but also have seized weapons, explosives
and false documents in his possession, which indicates the clear
antiterrorist direction the case will take if it stays on the path it
has followed so far.
This would be like opening a Pandora's box in Miami. The Bush
administration knows what's at stake with the Posada case. It's not
only the historical commitment of the U.S. government to these
terrorists; it's also the commitment of the Bush family itself.
Let's remember that Poppa Bush freed Orlando Bosch against the advice
of the authorities in his own administration; that Jeb, the family's
nipper, is committed to the marrow of his bones to these people; and
that the President himself owes them for the electoral fraud in 2000
and maybe even in 2004.
If you pull Álvarez's string, you can follow it all the way to the
White House. We might then assume that this is not a "strategy" of the
government but of its opponents, as happened in the other "gates."
Evidently, the Bush administration is facing an opposition that's
sitting on the heart of the system, and the reason for this is the
failure of the war in Iraq. As has been demonstrated, Iraq did not
possess weapons of mass destruction and its government was not linked
to the terrorist groups blamed for the attacks of Sept. 11.
The war in Iraq was aimed at gaining military control of the Middle
East, with a view to seizing the oil reserves in the region,
eliminating any potential European competitors and halting the
political development of the wealthy native bourgeoisie, which was
becoming increasingly less dependent on U.S. power.
That explains the opposition to the war raised by the principal
European nations and the majority of the countries in the area, which
-- although allies of the United States -- may be furnishing discreet
aid to the Iraqi resistance forces or are simply looking the other
way, to avoid domestic repercussions.
Iraq reminds us more and more of Vietnam. It is impossible to set up a
native government capable of controlling the country and only two
options remain: withdrawal in defeat, or an escalation of internal
repression and the spread of war to the neighboring countries, which
clearly would make the problem even worse.
As regards U.S. public opinion, the rising number of dead soldiers is
under scrutiny, the pacifist movement becomes increasingly stronger,
and the military attrition impinges on other issues, such as the price
of energy and the inability of the government to deal with natural
disasters, such as Hurricane Katrina.
More important than these examples of popular rejection is the loss of
consensus in the United States' circles of power. These sectors
supported the war almost unanimously, as shown by the votes in
Congress. The hysteria whipped up against terrorism was influential,
but the fundamental factor was the hegemonic assumptions arising from
expectations of a relatively assured victory.
To the degree that the war does not reap the expected benefits and
instead drags the country down, economically and politically, the
dissident voices against Bush grow louder, even from Republican Party
ranks, and the ban on criticism is challenged. The administration's
scandals surface, one after the other, and the popularity of George W.
Bush plummets to record depths.
There is nothing more compromising for the credibility of the "war on
terrorism" than the connection between the administration and the
Miami terrorists, and that's something the administration's foes know
well. Until recently, the government had managed to sweep the Posada
affair under a rug, but its inefficiency and disrespect for public
opinion have been so blatant that it seems the federal prosecutors
were left to their own devices, to sink or swim.
Only that can explain the lack of criticism that met Posada's illegal
entry to the United States, his "clandestine" presence in Miami, the
manipulation of a hearing where the prosecutor accepted the defense's
arguments without a peep, and where the judge was a government
employee.
These things can happen with a strong government that enjoys the
complicity of powerful groups but not with a lame-duck president like
George W. Bush, so I smell a trap in the impunity.
I have no idea who ordered the detention of Santiago Álvarez, but I
tend to think it was not the government. Maybe they found out too
late, or couldn't prevent the arrest without digging themselves into a
deeper hole.
They might even be able to control the damage. But if they cannot,
Bush's "gate" will be memorable. Cuban Americans in Miami are his best
stronghold; the day he does not rule them in Miami is the day he does
not rule anywhere else.
[Jesús Arboleya is a professor of history at the University of Havana.
He has written numerous books and essays about U.S.-Cuba relations and
the Cuban-American far right.]
.
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