Which High School Students Are Most Likely to Graduate From College?

Which High School Students Are Most Likely to Graduate From College?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/usnews/20090910/ts_usnews/whichhighschoolstudentsaremostlikelytograduatefromcollege
By Kim Clark – Thu Sep 10, 4:09 pm ET
Parents: Stop fretting so much about which high school your youngsters
attend or how they score on the SATs. If you want your student to make
it to a bachelor's degree, it's far more important for him or her to
earn at least B's in high school and reach for the best possible
college. Oh, and saving a few thousand bucks by sending your kid to a
community college could turn out to be an expensive mistake.

Some of the nation's best-respected educational researchers are likely
to reconsider much conventional wisdom today with the release of
surprising findings from an analysis of educational records of more
than 200,000 freshmen who started at public four-year colleges in
1999.

In the new "Crossing the Finish Line," William Bowen, a former
president of Princeton University, argues that so many undergrads are
dropping out (44 percent) that the country is in danger of losing its
competitive edge to other nations.

He and coauthor Michael McPherson, former president of Macalester
College, warn that America is likely to fall even further behind in
the educational race because coming crops of high schoolers are filled
with the kinds of low-income and minority students who tend to have
the least educational success. In fact, despite billions of dollars in
financial aid and scores of government and private efforts, the
college graduation rate for low-income

Americans who are the first in their families to go to college has
been falling. "We're not doing as good a job as we should of creating
genuine opportunity. We haven't continued to make progress the way
other places have," Bowen said in an interview. (Harvard doctoral
candidate Matthew Chingos also contributed to the book.)

The new research finds distressing signs that demographic factors such
as gender, race, and parental education play large roles in
determining a student's fate, no matter how smart or hardworking the
particular student is. Those from families with below-average earnings
or parents who didn't finish college, as well as African-Americans,
Hispanics, and males, are failing college at disproportionate rates,
even when compared with students with similar grades and test scores.
Wealthy undergrads earn 11 percent more degrees from flagship
universities than comparable students from the poorest income
quartile, for example. White men are 6 percent more likely to graduate
than black men with similar grades and scores. Women earn degrees at
much higher rates than men. Failing to open educational opportunities
to all students will endanger "the long-term health of our country,"
the authors warn.

Their findings about the actions that parents, students, and
politicians should--and shouldn't--take to fix the problems are
already sparking controversy:
High school grades are key: High school grades are the single best
gauge of how well a student will do in college, no matter how "easy"
or "tough" the high school's grading system is. "High school grades
measure a student's ability to 'get it done' in a more powerful way
than do SAT scores. . . . They reveal qualities of motivation and
perseverance--as well as the presence of good study habits and time
management skills--that tell us a great deal about the chances that a
student will complete a college program," Bowen writes.

But the nature of the high school doesn't make much difference: The
size, location, and racial mix of a student's high school don't appear
to influence his or her ability earn a college degree, the study
finds. Students who attend wealthier high schools do seem to enjoy a
slight edge in enrolling in college. And elite high schools appear to
help the very best students succeed at the most selective public
universities. Interestingly, an analysis of eighth-grade reading and
math test scores in North Carolina found that they were far more
significant predictors of college enrollment than most other factors,
including high school characteristics and student race. (The authors
didn't research the correlation between eighth-grade test scores and
college graduation, however.) That doesn't mean students or teachers
should cram for eighth-grade tests, though, says coauthor McPherson.
"The high scores identify students who study hard, pay attention, and
do their best. It's these qualities that parents and teachers should
aim to develop. And if they succeed in doing that, then those students
are likely to do better in their eighth-grade tests and in later
life," McPherson says.

Students shouldn't settle for less in a college: Thousands of bright,
qualified students apply only to lower-ranked schools where their
grades and tests scores are above those of the average student. But
the new study finds that those who attend such "safety" schools are
far more likely to drop out than those who get into "reach" schools.
"It is counterintuitive," Bowen says. "You might think that if Sally
goes to a school where she is top dog, she will have a much easier
time graduating. But that's not true. She has a better chance of
graduating if she goes to school with other people as talented she
is."

Admissions tests don't predict graduation: SAT and ACT test scores are
no help in predicting who will graduate from many, if not most,
colleges. The widely used tests do help identify those likely to
succeed at elite schools, the study found. But for many less selective
colleges, students with higher scores were actually more likely to
drop out. Representatives for the testing organizations noted that the
tests are designed to--and do--predict college freshmen's grades, not
college graduation. "We would be the first to acknowledge that the
tests are not a perfect prediction," says Jon Erickson, vice president
of the organization that runs the ACT. But Erickson argues that
standardized test scores are helpful because, for example, they allow
college admission officers to account for grade inflation at different
high schools.

True achievement tests are useful indicators: Advanced Placement
scores tell colleges more about a student's ability to complete
college than other tests, the study found. Advanced Placement courses
directly match the curriculum for entry-level college courses, and, at
many universities, students can earn credit hours for high scores on
AP tests.
B minuses aren't good enough: The new research confirms other findings
that students who earn at least a 3.0 grade-point average are far more
likely to graduate from college than students just under that mark. At
less selective colleges, for example, 58 percent of students who
entered with a 3.0 to 3.3 GPA graduated, compared with only 47 percent
of sub-B students. The gap was even bigger at more selective colleges.
"High school grades are tremendously important. It will not do for
high school students to believe that 'just getting through' is
enough," Bowen says. "You've got to work. You've got to pay your dues.
You've got to achieve. If you do, you will succeed."

Today's community colleges are not the best solution: Bright, well-
prepared community college students are 36 percent less likely to make
it through to a bachelor's than similarly qualified students who start
their degrees at four-year schools. Bowen realizes that message is
likely to rile politicians and students who are hoping to use
community colleges to save money in this economy but notes that his
findings confirm those of others: "It is pretty hard to argue with the
data . . . . If you want a bachelor's and you can start out at a good
four-year institution, that is what you should do."

Why do community college students fall by the educational wayside so
often? Other research has shown the influence of motivated and
challenging peers, who are not always present in community college
classrooms. Many community college students also have complained over
the years about the failure of their schools to direct them to classes
that will count as transfer credits. In addition, Bowen says many
students are probably put off by complicated transfer processes.

Spokesmen for community colleges were distressed by the findings.
"Community college officials are acutely aware that they must do more
to maximize the number of students who graduate; it's a huge and
growing concern," says David Baime, the American Association of
Community Colleges' vice president for government relations. But Baime
says much of the problem is caused by "the utterly unjustifiable
practices of many four-year institutions that prevent would-be
community college transfers from enrolling with appropriate credit."
Cash helps but is not a cure-all: More generous scholarships, or lower
net tuition prices, can boost graduation rates by 5 to 10 percent. But
scholarships and true costs need to be communicated to parents far
earlier than the current system's six-month lead, and much more
clearly, the authors say. In addition, combining sufficient aid with
extra support services for students and parents does even more to
shepherd students through to graduation.

Some colleges are doing a much better job than others: Colleges where
most students live on campus and schools that create "honors" groups
and "learning communities" are far more successful at graduating
students than other universities.

There is some hope: The graduation rate success of experiments such as
the Posse program, which provides teams of 10 low-income and minority
students at elite schools lots of scholarships, mentoring, counseling,
and peer support, shows that "graduation rates can be increased
substantially if enough resources--and creativity--are put to work,"
the authors say.

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