Re: Moscow hesitates over selling military technology to China
- From: PaPaPeng <PaPaPeng@xxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Wed, 30 Jan 2008 08:55:57 GMT
On Wed, 30 Jan 2008 02:02:27 GMT, Otis Willie PIO The American War
Library <themilitarytoday@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Moscow hesitates over selling military technology to China
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2008/01/30/2003399456
{EXCERPT} Taipei Times, Taiwan Russia's arms industry is suffering a near
collapse in exports to China as its military agonizes over which technology
Beijing should have, a Russian daily...
AFP, MOSCOW
Wednesday, Jan 30, 2008, Page 3
Russia's arms industry is suffering a near collapse in exports to
China as its military agonizes over which technology Beijing should
have, a Russian daily said yesterday.
The independent Nezavisimaya Gazeta said that Russian Defense Minister
Anatoly Serdyukov would visit China to try to resolve problems in
their relationship before Russian President Vladimir Putin's term ends
in May.
From a situation where 40 percent of Russian earnings from armsexports came from China, "recently exports to China of our military
equipment and weapons have dropped almost to zero," the paper said.
The main issue is indecision over which technology can be sold to
China safely, as well as Beijing's desire to receive licenses to do
the work itself, the paper said, citing a senior officer overseeing
the arms industry, Mikhail Dmitriyev.
The newspaper said that Moscow's willingness to deliver cutting-edge
technology to India -- another major importer of Russian weapons --
had "embittered the Chinese generals."
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Missing from the wirter's analysis is the fact that China manufactures
most of its own weapons requirements. Even advanced systems such as
in jets and ships the lead models are imported as manufacturing
patterns. They are then adapted and manufactured to Chinese
requirements.
A jet has an operational life of 40 years or so. Ships fifity years
thereabouts. Since China is not at war attrition rates, the turnover
of equipment, is low. Chinese production is enough to meet her
foreseeable needs. There is no need for the latest and fanciest
equipment everytime the salesman turns up.
Specific advanced jets (Su 30 series) are manufactured under license.
Since they can be acquired this way there is no point in reinventing
the wheel with China developing an equivalent model. China has her
own modern jets designs to undertake other mission requirements. You
can look up their details online anytime.
Ships will eventually be Chinese origin designs based on operational
experience acquired from operating Russian ships. The Chinese Type
956 Sovremenny class ships has 4 on inventory
http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/ship/row/plan/index.html
This is likely to be the complete number. Then Chinese designs will
appear eventually. The same with submarines.
China is not known of buying everything she can get her hands on that
goes bang. Thus the reason for slow if non existent sales of more
Russian weapons to China. Weapons systems like heavy long range
multirole jets had evaluation and development times of over two
decades. Many blind alleys along the way have to be abandoned. But
once a decision is made the project is persued with all the vigor and
resources China can muster. It also means only very few weapons
systems will be selected. The ones adopted will be made in the
thousands for complex systems such as warplanes and missile systems
and in the tens of millions for items such as infantry armanments.
And these will be around for years as no breakthroughs in weapons
designs are likely.
If you analyse the lessons of WWII the Germans did indeed have
superior tactics, superior personnel and superior equipment. But it
all came to naught for Germany could not sustain a war of attrition.
The Germans lost WWI that even those unfamiliar with war can recognize
as a war of attrition. The current Iraq -Afghan wars are wars of
attrition too that the world's only hyperpower is not winning and,
with time, can only lose.
Thus China has no fear of America, the only country that can threaten
China. The US cannot threaten China with a nuclear exchange although
she has more than enough nukes to destroy China and the world several
times over. China also has nukes and the ICBM delivery system
(DF-31A) that can reach continental USA. With time this capability
will only grow. China has no fear of any US conventional arms. The
current US arms are not significantly superior technologically. What
good is a USD345 million dollar F-22 if after firing all its ammo
there are still enough Chinese aircraft left who have enough
performance and ammo to bring it down. And what good are the best
shipboard radars, radar directors and anti missile missile systems if
after firing all the ships defences there remains more antiship
missiles, with only primitive targeting systems, incoming and quite
capable of hitting a target as large as a aircraft carrier.
There is no urgency to buy the latest Russian or European weapons.
Chinese weapons development will continue at a measured pace. She
will take advantge of any new developments but will not devote
resources to invent them.
.
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- From: Otis Willie PIO The American War Library
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