Re: China is going to eat someone's lunch again.
- From: PaPaPeng <PaPaPeng@xxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Wed, 21 Mar 2007 18:59:10 GMT
On 19 Mar 2007 12:06:12 -0700, demorising@xxxxxxx wrote:
On Mar 19, 1:36 pm, PaPaPeng <PaPaP...@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
State Council gives go-ahead to develop large passenger jets
March 19, 2007http://english.people.com.cn/200703/19/eng20070319_358874.html
China's plan to design and build airplanes that can carry more than
150 passengers, and compete with Airbus and Boeing, has been given the
official green light from the State Council, China's cabinet, said
sources close to the project on Sunday.
...
Source: Xinhua
I suppose the State Council has made a decision in favor of the
necessary outlays for the RS&D program. Some of the more expert
opinion, though, is skeptical of the prospects of success:
http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_channel.jsp?channel=comm&id=news/aw031907p3.xml&headline=Plenty%20of%20Hurdles%20for%20Chinese%20Wide-body%20Project
===========================================
On Wed, 21 Mar 2007 14:18:35 GMT, "Arved Sandstrom"
<asandstrom@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
"Jack Linthicum" <jacklinthicum@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:1174474082.795700.85150@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
[ SNIP ]
Again? Please explain.
He may be confusing all the people who kicked Chinese ass -of whom there
have been many - with the Chinese. The steppe and taiga peoples regularly
rolled in and ate Chinese lunch - there's a reason for the Great Wall of
China after all. And the Manchus weren't Chinese...
Possibly he meant the invasions of Vancouver and San Francisco.
AHS
Well that got you and Jack worried didn't it?
Boeing drove the UK and European passenger aircraft industry to
bankruptcy and adsorbed (?) Douglas and McDonnel because the rest
couldn't sell enough planes to make a go at it. Then along came
Airbus and they have come quite aways in 20 years, enough to eat half
of Boeing's lunch.
In this game the path to success is what sells not just fancy
technology and pretty wings. The original 747 development project was
for carrying cargo not passengers. Other than size no leading edge
technologies were involved. It is still ugly but it does the job in
its jumbojet long haul mass passenger carrier guise. Boeing couldn't
come up with any breakthroughs to design and build a successor model
ceding that torch to Airbus. In Boeing's own words there is a market
for only one Jumbojet. This remark is coming back to bite someone.
Stay posted.
It all boils down to economics not technology.
Recap Xinhua:[In terms of economics, there is a big market for large
civil airplanes. By 2020, China is expected to need an additional 1600
large civilian aircraft, at a cost of between US$150 billion and
US$180 billion. By 2050, faced with both further expanding its fleet
as well as replacing many of its existing aircraft, China will require
an additional 3000 airplanes. On top of that, it will require a number
of smaller jets for regional use, bringing the total cost to between
US$350 billion and US$400 billion. These are the domestic statistics;
if the demand from the world market is included, the market is even
bigger. ]
China's population and thus her domestic market is four times the size
of the States. It is twice the size of the US and EU combined.
China's domestic market for passenger aircraft is therefore big enough
to support Boeing and Airbus combined and then some.
The Chinese model(s) will likely be built like a truck which is
exactly what she needs and also the needs of many developing
countries. For sure the plane(s) will cost a lot less and a large
production run has an inherent advantage of reducing the unit price.
The US and EU for sure will fight tooth and nail to retain their
sales. This means meeting the China Price somewhere much below the
profit margins both companies are used to receiving now, as paper thin
as they already are. If the current troubles of The Detroit Three is
any indication there will be a repeat in the passenger aircraft
industry.
Currently there is a surge in new aircraft purchases as the worldwide
boom led by the boom from China has greatly expanded air travel and
as older airframes are retired. A new airframe should see at least 30
years service before being retired. China's passenger plane industry
development timeline is 20 years. Do the arithmetic.
.
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