Re: The Dark Side of China's Rise [by Minxin Pei]
- From: "ltlee1" <ltlee1@xxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: 27 Feb 2006 19:24:08 -0800
demorising@xxxxxxx wrote:
Minxin Pei is a senior associate and director of the China Program at
the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington DC. He
received his Ph.D. in political science from Harvard University in 1991
and taught politics at Princeton University from 1992 to 1998. His main
interest is U.S.-China relations, the development of democratic
political systems, and Chinese politics.
----------
The Dark Side of China's Rise
by Minxin Pei
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=3373&print=1
China's economic boom has dazzled investors and captivated the world.
But beyond the new high-rises and churning factories lie rampant
corruption, vast waste, and an elite with little interest in making
things better. Forget political reform. China's future will be decay,
not democracy.
A more or less vacuuous article hashing old news.
For exaample, he wrote,
"Upon close examination, China's record loses some of its luster.
China's economic performance since 1979, for example, is actually
less impressive than that of its East Asian neighbors, such as Japan,
South Korea, and Taiwan, during comparable periods of growth."
However, he did not substantiate his claims at all. Why can't he show
us the comparison.
He also commented of Chinese government accouted for a large chunk of
the GDP as if it is something extraordinary.
"The Chinese state remains deeply entrenched in the economy. According
to official data for 2003, the state directly accounted for 38 percent
of the country's GDP and employed 85 million people (about one third
of the urban workforce)."
Is 38% abnormal? Not at all.
"Tax Freedom Day® Arrived April 17 in 2005
Washington, D.C.-Tax Freedom Day® fell on April 17 in 2005,
according to the Tax Foundation's annual calculation using the latest
government data on income and taxes."
http://www.taxfoundation.org/news/show/52.html
The headline read Tax Freedom Day arrived April 17 in 2005. What does
it mean?
Simple. "Tax Freedom Day is calculated by dividing the official
government tally of all taxes collected in each year by the official
government tally of all income earned in each year. Governments -
federal, state and local..."
It means the U.S. government, federal and state and city together, took
away 30% of all incomes. In another word, government spending accounted
for 30% of the GDP. Of course, both federal and many state goverments
are having a budget deficit. The actual goverment spending was higher.
A 500 billion dollar federal deficit added another 5% to 10 trillion
GDP. In Britain, the tax freedom day of 2002 fell on June 2. This
translates into 42%. Socialist states in Europe have higher tax burden
which then means government spending accounts for higher percentage of
the GDP.
And here the prediction which is too predicable.
"Someday soon, we will know whether such a flawed system can pass a
stress test: a severe economic shock, political upheaval, a public
health crisis, or an ecological catastrophe. China may be rising, but
no one really knows whether it can fly."
Haven't Pei heard about the Great depression. Of course, there will be
confluence of events which will spell disasters. But then is China the
only country which will suffer?
...
.
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- The Dark Side of China's Rise [by Minxin Pei]
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