China Is Stagnating in Its "Trapped Transition"

Minxin Pei predicts an approaching cataclysm (or cracking) in China.

http://www.carnegieendowment.org/experts/index.cfm?fa=expert_view&expert_id=27&prog=zch

Minxin Pei is a senior associate and director of the China Program at
the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington DC. He
received his Ph.D. in political science from Harvard University in 1991
and taught politics at Princeton University from 1992 to 1998. His main
interest is U.S.-China relations, the development of democratic
political systems, and Chinese politics.

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China Is Stagnating in Its "Trapped Transition"

http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=18058&prog=zch,zgp&proj=zdrl

Anomalies abound when we think about China's economic transition.
How, for example, has it achieved record-beating growth while lagging
badly on institutional reforms? Although an initial pioneer in
embracing market reforms, China today has fallen behind most former
Soviet bloc countries, its large developing country peers (Mexico,
Brazil and India) and most of its east Asian neighbours in terms of
privatisation, regulation and the rule of law.

....

Without a national reformist ethos or visionary reformers, China seems
to be on a Long March to nowhere. China's continuing economic growth
merely vindicates the current policies and disproves the need for
change, perpetuating the trap. Riding this momentum, the party may
muddle along for some time but it is hard to imagine that China can
evolve into a market democracy without a cataclysmic mid-course
correction.

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