Experts on flu gather to strengthen global preparedness for a bird flu-sparked pandemic

Experts on flu gather to strengthen global preparedness for a bird
flu-sparked pandemic
By ALEXANDER G. HIGGINS, AP

GENEVA (AP) - The bird flu virus that has proven deadly to human beings
has yet to change into a strain that could easily pass from person to
person, but scientists fear that it is only a matter of time and are
urging the world to do more to prevent what they fear would be a
devastating influenza pandemic.

A series of meetings in many parts of the world are culminating in a
three-day strategy session starting Monday in Geneva. More than 300
scientists, public and animal health experts, government
representatives and others are expected to share what they have learned
and plan the next steps.

"This virus is very treacherous," said Dr. Margaret Chan, the World
Health Organization's top official in charge of monitoring avian
influenza. "While we cannot predict when or if the H5N1 virus might
spark a pandemic, we cannot ignore the warning signs."

Although bird flu has recurred over the years, scientists have been
watching an outbreak of the virulent H5N1 strain of the virus that
began infecting people in Asia in 2003. In early 2004 officials
announced that three people - an adult and two children - had died from
the disease in Vietnam.

Since then more than 120 people, most of whom were in close contact
with poultry, have come down with the disease in Vietnam, Cambodia,
Thailand and Indonesia, WHO says. More than half of the people infected
died.

Since 2003 health officials have destroyed well over 100 million
chickens and other poultry, but that has not halted the spread of the
disease to birds in central Asia, Russia and eastern Europe.

Around the world governments have made plans for the human influenza
that would result if the virus mutates so that people could easily
infect each other. Developing a vaccine is hampered because it is
unknown exactly what form the deadly virus would take.

The result has left many governments stocking up antiviral drugs that
work against regular flu and are believed to be the best immediate
weapon to confront a pandemic until a vaccine can be produced.

Preparations are also being made to protect domestic poultry flocks by
requiring that they be kept under cover or vaccinated.

"For the first time in human history, we have a chance to prepare
ourselves for a pandemic before it arrives," said Chan. "It is
incumbent upon the global community to act now."

The world has seen four flu pandemics since 1890, the last one in the
late 1960s. An ordinary flu epidemic kills thousands of people, but
pandemics can be much worse. The pandemic of 1918-19, known as the
Spanish flu, killed up to 40 million or 50 million people, WHO
officials have said.

Among those attending the meeting will be Dr. David Nabarro, a senior
WHO expert appointed by U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan in September
to coordinate the global response.

Nabarro said at the time that the death toll from a new flu pandemic
could be between 5 million and 150 million, but WHO's flu spokesman
*** Thompson said the agency considers a maximum death toll of 7.4
million a more reasoned forecast.

Scientists have made all sorts of predictions, ranging from less than 2
million to 360 million.

Besides scientific concerns, one major element to be discussed will be
how to pay for the preparations on a country, regional and global
level. A World Bank representative will chair that session.

The cost could be enormous. Last week U.S. President George W. Bush
proposed that the United States spend US$7.1 billion to prepare for a
flu pandemic.


11/06/05 10:09 EST


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