undemocratic and Unfair treatment to the people of Burma.
- From: "labor" <labor@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Tue, 14 Aug 2007 21:21:15 +0800
August 10, Asia Times Online
A lurch on Burma's road to democracy - Jessicah Curtis
After nearly 14 years in the drafting, Burma's ruling generals have
announced that next month they will finalize a new constitution that,
after a national referendum, will pave the way for a political transition
from military to civilian rule.
For much of the past decade, Burma's slow-moving constitution-drafting
National Convention has been paid short shrift by the political
opposition, which has openly chided the junta's so-called "roadmap for
democracy".
The announcement by the ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC)
that the convention will reconvene for its final session on July 18 has
sent shock waves through the pro-democracy movement, led by the opposition
National League for Democracy (NLD).
The final draft of the long-awaited constitution is nearly complete, and
for the first time the SPDC appears ready to take significant steps toward
some sort of political transition where the military will maintain
political control through civilian proxies. In that direction, reports
have recently emerged that the SPDC has commenced construction on a big
new parliamentary building in the reclusive new capital city, Naypyidaw.
Yet rather than moving toward genuine political reconciliation, as the
United States, the European Union and the United Nations have all
encouraged, news that the constitution is near completion has stirred
concern rather than confidence among pro-democracy groups, which fear that
they will be even further marginalized in the political transition.
Since its launch in 1993, the National Convention has been widely viewed
as a convenient excuse by the SPDC not to hand power over to the NLD,
which won a landslide election victory over military-backed candidates in
1990. The military later annulled the results and has since ruled the
country with an iron fist.
Originally designed to lay down the "basic principles" for a new
constitution, the convention was later repackaged as the first step on the
junta's "roadmap for democracy", which was launched in August 2003 by
then-prime minister Khin Nyunt. At the time, the SPDC claimed the roadmap
would lead to a new constitution, free and fair elections, and a
multiparty democratic political system.
Toward that end, the National Convention was reconvened in 2004 after an
eight-year break instigated by the NLD's unwillingness to participate in a
process that it has continuously characterized as a sham. The
international community has responded with similar skepticism and has
called for a more transparent, inclusive process.
That clearly hasn't been the case, with nine political parties and a
number of key ceasefire and rebel outfits either uninvited or refusing to
attend the National Convention. Many other political and civilian groups,
including some that have participated in the constitution-drafting
process, have said they are unhappy with the final draft charter now being
circulated.
Exclusive liberties
That's because the new charter includes various anti-democratic provisions
and predictably is designed to secure a role for the military in Burma's
future "civilian" parliament. It also ensures that popular opposition
politicians, including detained NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi, will be
legally excluded from prominent decision-making roles in the to-be-elected
government.
For instance, the draft allots 25% of the seats in a future parliament to
the military and prevents anyone with a criminal or prison record from
taking on a legitimate political role. Since many of Burma's pro-democracy
candidates, including several leading members of the NLD, have spent time
in jail, they will be barred from running for political office.
It also prescribes that the future president must have "political,
administrative, military and economic experience", and have lived in Burma
for at least 20 years, and his or her spouses and children's spouses must
not be citizens of a foreign country. This provision has been clearly
designed to rule out the possibility of Aung San Suu Kyi campaigning for
the premiership.
Several other cabinet positions, including those of the ministers of
defense, border affairs and homeland security, will by law be held by
members of the military, and according to provisions in the current draft,
the military can legally seize power at any time merely by declaring a
state of emergency. The constitution also gives the army the right to full
independence from parliamentary and public oversight.
Importantly, the final session of the National Convention next month will
also finalize the guidelines for constitutional-amendment procedures - a
provision that NLD members contend will be the key to the new charter's
eventual success or failure. "We are interested in this stage. If it can
be possible to change [the constitution], then it will not be so bad for
Burma," NLD spokesperson U Myint Thein said.
In previous drafts, the military has demanded that any constitutional
amendments be tabled as parliamentary bills that must carry 75% support of
the legislature, which the military will likely dominate through both its
appointed and elected proxies. If passed, the amendments must then garner
more than 50% of eligible voters in a national referendum.
If the draft constitution is finalized next month, the National Convention
finally comes to a close and a national referendum is quickly held to
ratify the new charter, where will it leave major opposition groups, such
as the NLD and the armed insurgent groups that have been excluded from the
drafting process? The short answer: in a tight political spot.
Sources along the Thailand-Burma border say that the military has recently
taken steps to disarm a number of ceasefire groups with which the SPDC had
brokered loose autonomy deals in recent years, including the Shan State
Nationalities People's Liberation Organization and the Democratic Karen
Buddhist Army. It appears that those ceasefire groups that did send
delegates to the National Convention did not expect the
constitution-drafting process to end so abruptly - nor were they prepared
for the military's recent moves to disarm their members.
Excluded from the constitution-drafting process, Burma's various
opposition groups likewise seem unprepared for the fresh political
challenges posed by the new constitution and a military-led democratic
transition that appears to be winning over significant international
support. While the constitution still needs to be finalized, the move
toward a limited form of democracy now seems inevitable and, according to
one Rangoon-based journalist, "caught the opposition with their pants
down".
"If the constitution goes to a referendum, then the next step will be a
[general] election," a source close to the military told Asia Times Online
in a telephone interview. "How can the NLD run for election based on a
constitution they didn't ratify and when they still insist that the 1990
election results are right? They will have to choose between the 1990
election result and being a part of Myanmar's political future."
At the least, the charter's completion and its promise of new general
elections will provide a fresh challenge to the legitimacy of past
political landmarks, including the annulled 1990 election results.
"You can go against something because it is unfair and unjust, but then it
becomes a political reality, and what do you do?" asked Thailand-based
Burmese political analyst Aung Naing Oo. "What the military is preparing
to say is that whatever happened in the past, it will be invalidated if
the new constitution is ratified."
Some analysts believe the military's decision abruptly to wind down the
National Convention and finalize the constitution was brought on by
pressure from China. Some analysts note that the announcement came hard on
the heels of Prime Minister Thein Sein's recent China visit. More
concretely, Beijing has recently become impatient with the military's
foot-dragging over a process that, once completed, would help to ease
Burma's political and economic isolation.
The UN , which helped broker secret national-reconciliation talks between
the SPDC and the NLD in 2003 and has consistently pushed the junta to move
toward more democracy, could be throwing its hat in with the SPDC's plan.
The United Nations Population Fund in Burma is helping the military
government prepare for the country's first national census in more than 20
years ahead of a national referendum. If that referendum leads to
democratic elections, more international concessions could be in the
offing.
.
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