Junta's Hidden Agenda

Junta's Hidden Agenda

http://www.tayzathuria.org.uk/bd/2007/2/25/e/neigh.htm

_ By Cedric

The Burmese military regime has armed forces four times the size of
those of the United Kingdom, said to be the fifth richest nation in
the world. Manpower is not, however, the most significant factor in
determining the use it envisages for its large army.

The increasingly sophisticated and costly Burmese arsenal of military
equipment is destined primarily neither for counter-insurgency nor for
riot control. It is for the battlefield, for defence or for offence.

The regime's well-publicised paranoia about a US attack procures for
it a twofold advantage. For internal consumption, it is a propaganda
ruse, of a well-established kind, that helps to unite behind it the
military caste and other servitors whose loyalty might be inclined to
waiver. More importantly, it is a smokescreen to hide its intentions
from its neighbours.

The regime's behaviour (a better guide than its public statements)
indicates that, with the backing of the Chinese and Russian
governments and tacit support from others, it believes it has little
to fear from the United States - least of all now that the US is
trying to extricate itself from the disastrous imbroglio in Iraq

Who might it have to fear ?

No-one !

It has in mind an offensive strategy. This is somewhat in keeping with
Burmese history from which the generals draw inspiration. A cultural
factor, not to be overlooked. Against whom might its projected
offensive strategy be intended ?

Against neither China nor India, for sure. So the presumption is the
target will be weaker nations in the region. If these presumptions are
correct, when will it attack ?

The regime will only choose to bare its true face to the outside world
when it feels the time is ripe. The moment to do so will be when it is
in an unassailable position of military superiority to those it seeks
to threaten. If this enables it to get what it wants without firing a
shot, it will doubtless be happy to do so. It would be in its nature
to employ, also, subversive methods to further the objective of
regional hegemony.

The Burmese economy expressed in terms of human welfare is a shambles.
Notwithstanding this, expenditure on military equipment and training
seems boundless. A government of such narrowly militaristic outlook is
a danger to any nation that it may eventually choose to threaten.

Foreign revenues fuel the country's growing military strength, and
also pay for technological means of population control to keep the
regime in power. Hard currency and foreign business can help the
regime to sap the cohesiveness of neighbouring states - the divide-and-
rule policy at which it excels.

How ?

By bribery (often disguised as favours and concessions) of individuals
in key positions, perhaps even of prime ministers.

And, by creating an economic dependence of segments of the population
in the threatened country, so that people intercede with their
government to surrender to Burmese pressures and demands, because of
the hardships to which they will otherwise be subjected.

Economic ineptitude of successive Burmese military regimes resulted in
the country being classified as one of the world's least developed
countries. However by 2001 gas sales to Thailand were bringing in US
$523,000,000 annually and the balance began to tip heavily in favour
of large-scale military expenditure. This has made feasible, but still
distant, the goal of regional dominance, which is to be sought by a
combination of diplomatic ruse and military might.

The regime's goal is not what it declares to international audiences.
It is what is shared amongst the military elite [1], and what can be
deduced from its actions and past comportment.

There have been recent suggestions of evidence that the regime is
working to develop nuclear weapons. Logically, this would be a mid-
term development project, spanning, say, a dozen years, with the end
result - if successful - the production of plutonium bombs. The
Tatmadaw possesses a tactical delivery capability for such weapons,
and may be working on longer range delivery systems in collaboration
with North Korea.

Very little time remains for the countries of the region to rouse
themselves from their slumbers.

If the suggested scenario happens to be accurate - it is a suggestion
that needs to be evaluated in the light of further evidence, which
must be sought assiduously - action must be taken years before the
Burmese regime has a chance to bring its plans to fruition. For it
will be necessary that the threatened countries cooperate to develop
or to acquire an effective deterrent. The expense involved will impact
upon the living standards of their populations, just as the Burmese
generals' dreams of military grandeur have impoverished the Burmese
people.

When the ASEAN countries opened the door, not to Burma and the
Burmese, but to the Burmese military regime, they admitted into their
fold a wild beast of the hyena variety.

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