Re: To B urmese Freedom Fighters:" The BUrmese Solution:, by Myint Thein


Neither way will succeed.

1. The SPDC will continue to ignore all approaches from the internal
opposition. They are in power, in firm control and see no need to negotiate
with any internal faction. The NLD is, sadly, struggling to survive. The
succession to Than Shwe and Maung Aye, the last two remaining SLORC
generals, has no doubt already been agreed. The next generals in charge will
be as tough and as hard-line as the present. The best the Burmese people can
hope for is that the new generals are more competent, more effective and
less isolationist.

2. "The Chinese Government will never change its policy towards Myanmar.
Myanmar's internal affairs need to be dealt with by its own government and
people. China condemned interference of [in?] Myanmar's affairs and [the]
imposition of economic sanctions as well as [the] submission of a report to
the UN Security Council to take action against Myanmar" - Premier Wen
Jiaopao to General Soe Win in Beijing on 19 February 2006. The prospects of
China agreeing to "impose" a political solution on Burma through the UN
Security Council must be close to zero. The Americans don't expect this.

The best way ahead lies through Beijing and New Delhi, supported by the
ASEAN Big Five (Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and the
Philippines), Russia, India and Japan. ASEAN "constructive engagement" is
at an end, replaced by critical dialogue. Visits to Burma by the Indian and
Indonesian Presidents next month, and by the Malaysian Foreign Minister
soon, could help the process of reconciliation. The US and EU should act in
a supporting, not negotiating role. The revolt and bloodshed which Myint
Thein seeks are fortunately not on the cards.

Perhaps Myint Thein might tells us who appointed him as "Senior Advisor".

Derek



"Kyin Ho" <kyinho@xxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:1140749986.904393.173350@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To : Burmese Freedom Fighters
From : Myint Thein, Senior Advisor to the Burmese Resistance
Date : February 23, 2006
Re : The Burmese Solution

There are two ways to secure a political settlement in Burma :

1) Domestic Solution : American sanctions are intended to pressure
the generals to facilitate a political settlement or topple the
military
government in Burma. TIME magazine recently accurately portrayed
NLD as moribund (dying) and ASSK is still under detention. Therefore,
a realistic domestic solution will require a deal with one faction in
the
Burma Army. Given the recent political concessions by NLD, a deal
with General Maung Aye is possible to secure a political settlement
in Burma. American Intelligence expects Than Shwe to die within one
year due to "multi-organ" failure.

2) International Solution : The UN bureaucracy's ability to mediate a
political settlement in Burma is extremely limited. The UN envoys
cannot even secure a visa to visit Burma. The UN Security Council,
however, can impose a Cambodian type political settlement and
facilitate UN supervised elections. This type of UN Security Council
Resolution can secure the Chinese vote since the Chinese also
helped resolve the Cambodian crisis.


__________



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