Myanmar coup rumours die but mysteries remain

Myanmar coup rumours die but mysteries remain
25 Aug 2005 07:25:00 GMT

Source: Reuters

By Aung Hla Tun

YANGON, Aug 25 (Reuters) - The whereabouts of Than Shwe, leader of
Myanmar's secretive junta, remained a mystery on Thursday, but rumours
he had been ousted by the army chief were dying rapidly.

The most popular explanation was that Than Shwe, 73, who appears in the
media only rarely, was in a hospital in Yangon's military zone and
General Maung Aye, the army chief and number two in the junta, was
acting in his stead.

"So far as we've heard, he was sent to the Mingaladon military
hospital. We don't know any further details," said U Lwin, the
spokesman for detained democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi's National
League for Democracy (NLD).

Than Shwe's last media appearance was on August 19 when he met special
United Nations envoy Ali Alatas, the Indonesian former foreign
minister.

The state-run media in the former Burma made no mention on Thursday of
either Than Shwe or the rumours of his ouster which swept Myanmar and
neighbouring Thailand a day earlier.

Officials, who rarely talk to journalists in a country ruled by the
military in various guises since 1962, were unreachable for comment.

But Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra shrugged off the rumours as
baseless.

"The information we've got is that they are not true," he told a news
conference. "We have checked with every source. It was not true."

RUMOURS, HOPE, DISAPPOINTMENT

There had been no unusual military or police activity in Yangon on
Wednesday, leading diplomats to disbelieve the rumours, but the prices
of gold and the kyat currency moved, reflecting unease among ordinary
people.

But the prices of both began to drift back to previous levels on
Thursday as the intensity of the rumours dissipated.

Gold, which rose from 270,000 kyat per tical (0.525 troy ounce) on
Tuesday to 276,300 kyat on Wednesday, dipped to 275,000 kyat.

The black market price of the kyat -- whose official exchange rate is
around 6 to the dollar -- dropped from 1,120 to 1,178 on Wednesday but
had recovered to 1,170 on Thursday morning, dealers said.

Rumours about what is going on in the military have been rife since
General Khin Nyunt was ousted unceremoniously as prime minister and
military intelligence chief last October.

That was followed by the mass release of prisoners the junta said had
been jailed improperly by military intelligence and the inclusion of a
few political detainees raised hopes it was serious about a seven-step
road to democracy Khin Nyunt had announced.

But, as has happened so often before in Myanmar as events spawned hope,
nothing appears to have changed.

Suu Kyi is still under house arrest and her NLD effectively barred from
a conference writing a new constitution critics say will merely cement
the military regime in place.

Nor do long-time Myanmar watchers expect things to change.

"If there were to be a change in leadership, I don't see any indication
that that would lead to a change in policies towards Aung San Suu Kyi
or the pro-democracy movement," said Robert Karniol, the Asia-Pacific
editor of Jane's Defence Weekly.

"There seems to be a very monolithic political viewpoint within the
armed forces and I don't see that being readjusted by a change of
personality," he said.

"There is competition between individuals or blocks of individuals, but
I don't see a hardline verses moderate split within the armed forces."

(Additional reporting by Karishma Vyas in BANGKOK)

((Writing by Michael battye, editing by David Fox; Reuters Messaging,
michael.battye.reuters.com@xxxxxxxxxxx; +66 2 637 5610))


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