Re: Dollar at new low against euro
- From: Eugene Holman <holman@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Fri, 26 Oct 2007 19:35:58 +0300
In article <nYOdnUzz4IYwlr_anZ2dnUVZ_hCdnZ2d@xxxxxxxxxxx>,
"Henry Alminas" <halminas@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
"Eugene Holman" <holman@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message<deletions>
The Holmaian/Kremlin line is now
that the current US is akin to the
Weimar republic in 1919-1933
(more or less) in Germany.
You really are in a McCarthy-like frenzy today, Henry. The Kremlin,
which is in the paradoxical situation of holding close to a trillion
dollars, whose value is rapidly eroding, while watching the price of oil
ease towards the $100 a barrel level, has reason to be concerned about
the devaluation of the dollar. I, without a single dollar to my name, am
only concerned because it means that economic tectonic plates are
realigning themselves with consequences nobody can foresee.
What the hell - this is, after all,
right in line with the Holmanian/
Kremlin history lessons about the
russkie/Baltic countries situation that we
have had to read in the past.
They are in line with your selectively mendacious interpretations of
them, nothing else. Devaluing the currency and paying of debts incurred
in hard currency with debased currency is something that irresponsible
governments have been doing ever since the days of the Roman Empire.
That the US is flirting with the same idea does not make it akin to the
Weimar Republic in any other sense than the fact that the economists
calling the shots have read their history books and are applying a
This is "Truth" according to the Kremlin
which is what Holman *has* to type.
As I just wrote, the Kremlin is in a position that it is both concerned
about and is profiting from the erosion of the international value of
the dollar. When you have close to a trillion of them, you can get
severely burned if you do not play your cards right.
Anybody with the slightest interest in these matters knows that the
euro/dollar exchange rate has dropped from 1.17 on January 28, 2002 to
the 0.69 that it is today. Anybody who made an investment costing 1.17
euros in 2002 that was worth only 0.69 euros close to six years later
would think seriously about divesting himself of that investment, all
the more so if the trend was downwards and he had close to a trillion of
Though I would warn you - do not
discount the Holmanian BS.
The only bullshit in this is your risible prediction a few years ago
that the euro would be a flop and fall to the value of a German mark. In
fact. measured a against a neutral means of exchange such as gold, it is
the dollar that is tattered and torn. Anybody who has ever taken
Economics 101 knows that the best way to bankrupt a national economy is
to reduce taxes while waging pointless and fruitless foreign wars, all
while living beyond your means on credit. Not everyone remembers that
the US has already been in Iraq for a time span longer than that defined
by the attack on Pearl Harbor and VJ day.
No sane person wants to see the dollar go the way of the German
Rentenmark, the Soviet ruble, the Yugoslav dinar, or the Zimbabwean
dollar, nor do I think that will happen. Nevertheless, there are clear
signs that the "party is over" as far as the present functioning of the
American economy is concerned. The loss of international faith in the
dollar, clear in the unprecedented erosion of its international value,
is a clear sign of this.
This prescient article is from almost three years ago. The dire
predictions are now coming true.
The disappearing dollar
Dec 2nd 2004
From The Economist print editionTHE dollar has been the leading international currency for as long as
most people can remember. But its dominant role can no longer be taken
for granted. If America keeps on spending and borrowing at its present
pace, the dollar will eventually lose its mighty status in international
finance. And that would hurt: the privilege of being able to print the
world's reserve currency, a privilege which is now at risk, allows
America to borrow cheaply, and thus to spend much more than it earns, on
far better terms than are available to others. Imagine you could write
cheques that were accepted as payment but never cashed. That is what it
amounts to. If you had been granted that ability, you might take care to
hang on to it. America is taking no such care, and may come to regret it.
The dollar is not what it used to be. Over the past three years it has
fallen by 35% against the euro and by 24% against the yen.
Forex - Dollar flounders, sets fresh record lows against euro
10.26.07, 11:07 AM ET
LONDON (Thomson Financial) - The hapless dollar set a series of fresh
record lows against the euro and was down against a host of currencies
as fears of a recession in the US began to take hold after a some weak
economic numbers over the week.
The data include an unexpected drop in durable goods orders and
higher-than-expected weekly employment numbers yesterday alongside a
continually weak housing market and rocketing oil prices.
Later today, a drop in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment
survey is expected, making it likely that the dollar will drop further.
Economists expect the University of Michigan survey to show a final
October consumer sentiment of 82.0, down from its 83.4 preliminary
Against this backdrop, markets are predicting that US rate setters will
be forced to go on a rate cutting spree in order to shore up the wider
'Increased certainty that the Fed funds rate will fall by at least 50
basis points this year to 4.25 pct means that the dollar will be treated
as a low yielding currency, specifically due to the onset of further
rate cuts in 2008,' Ashraf Laidi at CMC Markets said.
More rate cuts are expected to follow in 2008.
'It is the anticipation of further rate cuts that reinforces the
depreciation of the greenback, especially as the deepening housing
recession is expected to continue into 2008, translating into
repercussions for employment, homeowner's equity and consumer spending,'
No wonder then that the dollar is now languishing at a record low
against the euro (1.4287 usd), a 33-year low against the Canadian dollar
and a new 23-year low against the Aussie dollar. It held up better
against other low yielding currencies -- namely the yen and the Swiss
The dollar's weakness against the euro was also more stark as it comes
at a time when euro zone data is starting to weaken.
It was revealed today that Euro area M3 grew 11.3 pct year-on-year in
September, down from a year-on-year growth rate of 11.6 pct in August,
and in line with the consensus forecast.
Elsewhere, the pound rose to three-month highs against the dollar,
supported by the US rate cut talk.
'The market is of the view that the Fed will act 'ahead of the curve'
thereby preventing the economy from free falling,' said analysts at BNP
Paribas (other-otc: BNPQY.PK - news - people ).
'As long as this view holds, the US dollar will continue to trade on the
The yen was stable against the dollar, as risk appetite remained subdued.
'Dollar/yen trades in a tight range as risk sentiment remains skittish,'
said analysts at BNP Paribas.
However, they added that risk appetite could re-merge following
Industrial and Commercial Bank (other-otc: CBDP.PK - news - people ) of
China's announcement that it will buy a 20 pct stake in South Africa's
Standard Bank -- the biggest foreign direct investment in the country
London 1337 GMT London 0902 GMT
frequently acted as a test-site for a
disinformation line that the Kremlin
planned to use for general "old
Yeah, and there is a Kremlin agent sleeping under your bed.
Please understand what Holman is
and what he is all about.
Yes, I am obviously a person who reads quality media representing a
variety of opinions, trying to formulate my own by critical
consideration of different viewpoints, while you derive all your
information from Fox News, Rush Limbaugh, David Duke, and Anne Coulter.
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