Russia Attacks Georgian Vegetable Field

For educational purposes:

"Analysis: Why would the Kremlin attack?
By Adrian Blomfield in Moscow

Despite categorical denials from the Kremlin, Georgia seems convinced
that the missile which struck a vegetable field near Tbilisi last
night was fired by a Russian warplane.

Georgia: Russia fired missile at village it is not the first time that
there have been reported violations of Georgian airspace this year.

In March, Russian helicopters were accused of opening fire in the
remote Kodori Gorge, close to the lawless breakaway region of
Abkhazia, which is backed by Moscow.

A report by United Nations observers concluded that it was unclear who
was behind the incident. If it is shown that yesterday's attack was
carried out by the Russian military, it would represent a significant
escalation in the diplomatic crisis between the two countries.

Georgia has already called the strike "an act of aggression".
The question is why Russia would carry out so provocative an attack.

There is no doubt how serious is the rift between the two countries
since Mikhail Saakashvili, the westernizing president, was swept to
power in the Rose Revolution of 2003.

Russia has deeply resented its loss of influence in the country of
Stalin's birth and is determined to halt Mr Saakashvili's ambitions
for Nato and EU membership.

Moscow showed its displeasure by banning exports of Georgian wine and
mineral water, vital sectors of an economy still heavily dependent on
Russia.

Tensions erupted last September after Georgia expelled four Russian
officers it accused of espionage. The Kremlin's excessive reaction
raised eyebrows around the world. Moscow withdrew its diplomats from
Tbilisi, severed trade, transport
and postal links and deported thousands of Georgians living in
Russia.

With a fierce anti-Georgian campaign being waged in the Russian press,
some commentators suggested that a group of Kremlin hardliners were
intent on provoking a military confrontation to provide an excuse to
change the constitution and allow Vladimir Putin to stay in power.

The president is due to step down next March after completing his
second term.
Alexei Malashenko, an expert on the Caucasus at the Moscow Carnegie
Centre, said it was possible that this faction had ordered the firing
of a dummy missile in a bid to fuel the crisis.

But he and other analysts said it was more likely that the missile
attack could have been carried out by local Russian army units without
the knowledge of the Kremlin.

The location of the air strike was close to South Ossetia, another
Moscow backed breakaway region. Georgia and Russia have been at
loggerheads over the tiny region - which is about the size of Suffolk
- for years.

Tbilisi has accused Moscow of arming the rebels and firefights between
separatists and Georgian soldiers have increased since 2004.

There have been signs, however, that Russia is finally willing to
negotiate a settlement. Moscow has opposed the West's backing for
independence of Kosovo, arguing that Serbia's territorial integrity
should be inviolable and has threatened to veto a UN resolution that
backs Pristina's position.

As a result, the Kremlin has had to temper its support for Georgia's
breakaway regions or risk being accused of hypocrisy. But for Russian
military units stationed in South Ossetia as peacekeepers and their
commanders across the border in southern Russia, a peace accord would
be highly undesirable.

As it has descended into lawlessness, South Ossetia has become a haven
for smugglers and counterfeiters. According to western diplomats, a
significant proportion of the fake dollar bills in circulation on
America's east coast were manufactured here.

According to analysts, those profiting the most are Russian officers -
many of whom hold posts in the South Ossetian administration."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/08/07/
wgeorgia307.xml

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