Re: Condi in Moscow

vello wrote:

On May 17, 10:16 pm, Vladimir Makarenko <makar...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
vello wrote:

On May 16, 10:02 pm, Vladimir Makarenko <makar...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>

"Solution" is on the surface, but there are no troops to spare. Besides
Iran's bomb is seen as inevitable. Just different estimations of time
when. It can be stopped only by total occupation of the country, and
there is no chance for that. It is however possible that in a sick mind
of Cheney to cut Iran's Southern desert regions neigboring Gulf and home
to oil fields is a solution. God help us then.


Idea about cutting Iran in pieces seems absurd to me. What would be
explanation to the World? No nation or national group to save from
slavery there and hardly US voters will support idea "just to go and
take coz I want it". - US voters are brainwashed with some idea about
justice, so chechen way is out of question. Even total occupation
seems more possible - then it would br "liberation" if Iran people
from undemocratic govt".

Holy smoke, are you serious or just bitterly sarcastic? Believe me -
everything will be explained and "rational" motivation to be sold to
public. It would be totally inevitable, now it depends if they succeed
to start it before the end of 2008.
As to at least part of the public - I guess you never saw a bumper
sticker: "Kick their ass get oil for us".
I've seen much harder flags and T-shirts from Moscow TV-channels. Well
not about iranians but about my nation :-) Sure I was a bit sarcastic.
I love small countries where politics rarely will grow ower heads of
ordinary people.

EVERY day press and TV here bomb you with "Iranian nuclear threat".
There is however a very strong opposition. But both sides push so hard
that to predict outcome is impossible.

But much cheaper possibility is bombing nuclear devices with message
that we don't occupy you but we will never allow to build nuclear
industry there.

Out of question. Iran was clever enough to build all facilities a) under
ground b) without much concentration at a single place. The consensus
opinion is that for the effective destruction of the facilities it would
be necessary to use tactical nukes without a guarantee that nuclear
materials are not hidden in another place. E.g. MAGATE inspectors found
traces of weapon grade Uranium but nobody has a clue where from the
pieces of equipment came.
Come on, it is not known where tiny North Korea stores and manufacture
its bombs. Iran has such territory and landscape it makes detection of
storage of Uranium for a few bombs impossible. Together with packaging
materials it is only couple hundred kilograms.

You are wrong, Vladimir, and proof is not in Iran or Korea but in both
of your homelands - no agreement between USA and USSR would be
impossible without both sides being sure they know 97% about
capabilities of other side.
More, surely you can hide a bomb - but not a production. Production is
not some "hidden point underground" it is logistics all over country.
Or you think all railroad and highway network to carry raw material in
Iran is also underground? And power stations to feed enrichment
plants? There was a news yesterday or a bit earlier with exact no of
Iranian centrifuges in work and centrifuges yet in building stadium,
so data is readily available, make some Google on matter. It is
possible some innocent power plants or chemical companies will be
bombed by accident, but uran production will be shut down for sure.
To make my position clear, my talk was about technical possibility of
that mission.

I am sorry I am just a messenger here what concerns chances to destroy
Iran's nuclear manufacturing facilities - it is what the US intelligence
and military establishment think about air strikes doesn't matter for
how long a campaign would continue.
A big scare is about Iran's retaliation with a dirty bomb.