Re: EU 'Lokomotivs' and Other Junk
- From: "gricer" <shrbw@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: 31 May 2006 02:51:04 -0700
lorad474@xxxxxx wrote:
For educational purposes:
"Mind the EU's credibility gap
BILL JAMIESON
FOR those in Europe still wedded to the metaphor of the EU as a
speeding train leaving only the idle and stupid stranded at the
station, these are dark days.
Odd that there seems to be plenty of countries that still wish to catch
this particular train...Croatia, Roumania, Bulgaria, Montenegro,
Turkey.....
There's an EU constitution train, except it's off the rails. The train
sped on, so to speak, but passengers in two compartments mutinied. Next
month sees an EU summit dominated by attempts to get the constitution
train 'back on track'.
Oh, this is about the constitution and its rejection in a referendum by
France and the Netrherlands! A setback, but nothing to retard the
development of the European project in the long run..... But this is
old news. When was this written?
Only there's no fuel.
Huh! (As you quaint colonials say....)
In the compartment marked
'Italy' the doors have swung loose and the wheels have fallen off.
But Berlusconi has now gone.....
On
the track marked prosperity there are buckled rails and huge
obstructions.
Such as?
And on the platform, the stranded passengers have ceased
to bother.
What stranded passengers?
It's not just the train that's broken. It's the line that's
the problem: the line that's going to nowhere.
Why? What's changed? Nothing.
Train analogies have ruined our understanding of the whole 'Europe'
game for decades. But still they persist. One year after the emphatic
'no' votes to the constitution by voters in France and the Netherlands,
the "pause for reflection" has turned out to be more pause than
reflection. Thus, EU enterprise commissioner Gunter Verheugen who
declared last week that "if anyone is able to set the derailed train
back on tracks [sic] then it's the Germans".
We have been here before and in far more serious situations than this,
which is of the order of a minor irritation. Remember De Gaulles's
empty chair? Probably not....
His call followed remarks by that aristocrat of the train metaphor,
Valéry Giscard d'Estaing. He declared that the French should vote
again on the EU constitution. He argued, "It is not France that has
said no. It is 55% of the French people - 45% of the French people said
yes."
And largely motivated by issues that had nothing to do with the
Constitution....
But that's still 'no', isn't it? Well, er, no. He insisted in a
newspaper interview that there was now enough support in the EU for the
constitution and that all that needs to be agreed is how it should be
implemented.
And he's probably right. The impetus of new members ought to be enough.
Now Giscard can hardly be said to be neutral in this matter. He was the
main driver of the Constitution train. He huffed and puffed across the
EU. He insisted there was no alternative to voting 'yes'. And he once
opined that the draft constitution was so perfect it did not need any
amendment. Nothing, he said, had been overlooked. There was even a
section on the writ of the EU he was particularly proud of: outer
space.
What does the last sentence mean?
But the former French President is not alone in regarding the
constitution as unfinished business and the next big thing.
In a speech at Warsaw University, Karel De Gucht, the Belgian Foreign
Minister, proposed that "in future, the EU should be able to revise its
founding treaties on the basis of a qualified majority vote, instead of
unanimity, so as to break the deadlock over the EU constitution. He
said the current procedure of treaty revision was a "recipe for
immobility... That is unacceptable." He suggested the convening of a
new Inter Governmental Conference (IGC) in 2008 if the EU still has no
constitution.
Which is very sensible.
Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, is keen to see the EU
constitution "back on track", but with a reference to God written into
it.
That won't happen (the reference to God, that is).
Wolfgang Schussel, the chancellor of Austria, has urged EU leaders
to push through the ratification of the EU Constitution by 2009. "It
should be our goal that [the constitution] can enter into force at the
same time as the new European Parliament and the new Commission."
Also very sensible.
In a speech earlier this month, Giuliano Amato, the Italian interior
minister, said that the rejection of the EU constitution by the French
and the Dutch did not mean that European integration should be broken
off and said that he felt that the 'no' votes should be seen as a
"request for more Europe rather than less".
Exactly so. some voters thought that the Constitution didn't go far
enough....
In an interview with La
Repubblica, Emma Bonino, the Italian minister for European affairs,
urged that member states committed to faster progress on the issue
should move on from the "period of reflection".
Good.
Ireland has also confirmed its support for the new EU constitution.
Bertie Ahern the Irish prime minister, said it was "the right choice
for Ireland". The Irish European affairs minister Noel Tracey also said
that the Irish government remained "totally committed" to the
constitution and "we do not believe that a better agreement can be
found at the current stage".
Quite right.
So now we know what will be the key preoccupation of those European
train drivers at the EU summit next month: back to the future. In all
this fantasising,
Where is the fantasy in this?
scant attention has been paid to the continuing
economic malaise throughout the EU and the threat posed by a
combination of further rises in interest rates and a fall in the
dollar: a killer pincer movement that could condemn the EU to prolonged
and severe recession.
If there is continuing demand for the Euro, why should interest rate
rises be necessary? Eirope is in far better shape to insulate itself
from a dollar collapse than it was a decade ago...
Already the euro has rallied in the past few weeks to its highest level
in a year against the dollar, stirring concern that it could undermine
strong exports in the Eurozone and harm an economy growing at around
2%.
Which it will not, since many of our exports go to each other within
the Eurozone.
More immediately there are the deepening problems in Italy. Last week,
the new government warned the country's finances were in worse shape
than forecast, raising the prospect of a budget showdown with Brussels.
Vincenzo Visco, the deputy finance minister, warned the deficit this
year could exceed 4.5% of GDP. He added for good measure: "The state of
the economy is serious and the state of the public accounts a
disaster".
And that will bring down the E.U.?
Sorry, this is crap.......
Dr. Barry Worthington
In response Joaquin Almunia, EU monetary affairs commissioner, dished
up a depressingly stale response, urging the new government of Romano
Prodi to step up efforts to control the deficit and to come up with an
ambitious medium-term budget next month.
But Italy cannot, as it did in the past, let the exchange rate take the
strain and devalue. Nor can it rely on monetary easing. Indeed, new
data from Germany suggests that, although business optimism may have
peaked, it is still sufficiently high to kindle speculation that the
ECB may raise interest rates by a half percentage point to 3% rather
than the usual quarter-point increase when it meets on June 8. Should
that occur, Italy's economy will be in a serious mess.
Meanwhile, the current account balances of France and Italy continue to
worsen. France has gone from a deficit of $8.4bn in 2004 to almost
$39bn last year, while Italy has swung from a deficit of $15bn to one
of $36.5bn. Spain's deficit has soared from $55bn to $83bn. Germany, by
contrast, has seen a strengthening of its current account surplus. If
this is convergence, it is not as we know it.
But few at EU summits seem to have much grasp of economics, or of the
price being paid for continuing failure to tackle structural reform. In
Germany there is growing restlessness over lack of economic reform
under the grand coalition. Changes to allow greater labour market
flexibility have been kept on the back burner
The drift continues. But for how long? Were the ECB to raise rates, as
seems likely, and the dollar to fall, by say, 15 to 20%, a full-blown
recession would be an almost foregone conclusion. Yet this is where
Europe is heading as the summiteers bray on about the need to get the
EU constitution "back on track" and "the train gaining speed". Speed to
where?"
http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/business.cfm?id=787212006
.
- References:
- EU 'Lokomotivs' and Other Junk
- From: lorad474
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