Re: NATO and Russia

vello wrote:

 Nato and Russia

Vladimir started interesting topic in scr, but it get not so much cover
there, so I bring it in scb:



Newsgroups: soc.culture.russian
From: Vladimir Makarenko <makar...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> -

http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=5421

  2. vello
 Jan 28, 1:36 am

  Cold war style thinking dies slowly. Story is playing on cold War
fears, target is to turn US looking more inside. Still hard to find
serious logic here. There are two possible scenarios for Russia's
future development:
a) Russia is developing towards "normal" state.
b) Russia is developing in agressive way, new round of Free World -
Russia confrontation is inevitable.


If to play on card a), all problem is taken from nothing - one day
Russia will join NATO (EU) also, long before that Russia's fears about
bigger NATO are contemporary and will disappear in process of closening

to NATO by Russia himself.
If to play card b) then the further east the free world - Russia's
border then better. In this case "hot border" will be appear anyway, so

there is point to keep potential territory controlled by Russia as
small as possible.


Anyway, by me what Western Community needs, is clear and open defining
of future movements - and defining meaning of "Free world" himself.
Ideally it must be done in partnership with Russia. Enlargening "Free
world" must go in accordance with abilities of particular nations to
really fulfill criterias of free society - it's not race to pick up as
many nations as possible, it's building a Free Earth. On other hand, no

nation on the Earth must not get signal that despite they fulfill all
conditions of democracy, they can't join world community because they
are "too close" to some other nation.


Someway it is hard for me (my problem, of course:-)) to get point of
authors. They seemingly are keen to play card b), coz only in such case

Russia will feel it have or must have some area of influence where
interests of Russia are superior to souvereignty of nations living in
borders of such area. No modern state have declared that he have
interests overruling neighbour's ones and I see no reason why world
must accept such claims in future. But if b) is the future, then, as I
say, then further east the new frontline of new cold war then better
from  wiewpoint of democratic community. This way only conclusion I get

is that story is more about US then Russia - must US be active player
in world affairs or turn more inside to solve problems at home. Authors

of that story are clearly on "isolationist" position. 


Others??


Nato lost its mojo with dissolution of SOviet Union - everything was so nice, - so well organized, well thought and played by the rules up to both sides knowing a schedule of reconessance plane flights. Parade war games were played in turn, number of personnel was known up to a single digit number and probably names of pretty nurses too.
Then came bad times - Russians in the most mean way withdraw from the game and faced the real modern war the US now fighting in Iraq. Military bureaucracy was left with nothing. Nato turned much more lucky for a while than Russians - a lot of money for expansion. Russian counterparts could only drul looking at such wild party. Not counting - well how to call it? - embarassment of first Chechen campaign.

But Nato soon found itself in trouble too. Hangover after Cold war expansion and no understanding what to do next. Embarassment of gang rape of Yugoslavia. Then came Iraq and unimaginable happened: when asked for help, Euros turned back on US, their "thanks" for 50 years of deadly risk the US took in stand off with USSR.
What of course made the US to have a second look at Nato. Nothing isolasionist in it:"If you want to have things done well - do it yourself".

All in all Nato is over. Will Georgia and Ukraine (or whoever else) be there or not really doesn't matter. It's only a pretext for few of ambitious Russian young generals to preach about boosting military budget.

  VM.
.

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