Re: Russkie Knife in Back for Ukraine

In article <1135987392.937872.39820@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
lorad474@xxxxxx wrote:

> Eugene Holman wrote:
> > In article <1135903661.055927.13610@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
> > lorad474@xxxxxx wrote:
> > > Maybe pooety will send Gerhardt out with a monkeywrench to turn off the
> > > valves.
> >
> > Easier said than done, seeing as most of Russia's oil to the EU is shipped
> > via pipelines traversing Ukraine.
>
> Never stopped pootey before..

Don't you understand that if Russia were to cut off oil or gas shipments
to Ukraine, but continue to ship oil and gas through Ukraine, the
Ukrainians need only siphon off what they think is their fair share. They
can call it an increased transit fee, and there is nothing Russia could do
about it. Russia, not Ukraine, is in the weaker bargaining position.

> > If we are going to operate in a market economy, subsidies will have to be
> > phased out,
>
> So tell that to pootey who (soon to assume the presidency of the
> ultimate capitalist clache; the G-8) is subsidizing the gas that he
> sells to another totalitarian anti-market command economy market;
> Belarus.
>
> > so Ukraine will gain from this tempest in a teapot, while
> > Belarus, with highly subsidized gas, will continue to stagnate.
>
> So typical of you to overlook russian criminality.

Russian criminality is here of only secondary importance. The real issue
here is Russian stupidity. Russia's only bridge to "greatness" in present
circumstances is as a reliable energy supplier. It is demonstrating to the
world that it does not respect contracts, and, more importantly, that it
does not understand that its clients can take their business elsewhere.
Russia does not supply anything that other, more reliable suppliers,
cannot also provide. Russia needs Ukraine as a conduit for its oil and gas
to the West far more than Ukraine needs Russia's oil and gas.

> Between now and your
> prognosticated Ukrainian economic nirvana lie the months of January,
> February, March, and a severe winter...

Luckily, a solution seems to have been found:

Source: http://edition.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/europe/12/31/russia.ukraine/index.html

<quote>

Ukraine warms to Putin gas deal

MOSCOW, Russia (CNN) -- Ukraine could accept a Russian compromise deal in
a dispute over natural gas supply prices, but more talks are needed, a
spokesman for the Ukrainian prime minister is reported to have said.

Earlier Saturday, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his government
and the Kremlin-controlled Gazprom natural gas company to supply Ukraine
with gas on 2005 terms in the first quarter of 2006 if Kiev agreed to pay
the higher market price for gas from the second quarter.

Ukraine has until now received one-third of its natural gas from Russia at
the heavily subsidized rate of $50 (&euro42) per 1,000 cubic meters, in
addition to its domestic supply and imports from Turkmenistan.

But Russia's Kremlin-controlled gas company Gazprom had threatened to cut
supplies to Ukraine on Sunday if Kiev does not agree to pay more than four
times the current rate, which is closer to what most Western European
countries pay.
Kiev indicated it was prepared to move on the price. "As for the statement
by Russia's leadership, we accept the proposal on a transition to market
prices for gas," Valentin Mondrievsky, spokesman for Ukraine's prime
minister, told Interfax Ukraine news agency, according to Reuters.

"But there must be talks on figures and both sides must agree their
positions. We have to fix a day for sitting down and continuing talks."

Putin issued his orders, reported on Russian TV, at a Russian Security
Council conference. Gazprom chief executive Alexei Miller was invited to
that meeting.
"I can see quite a hard line on the part of both the government and
Gazprom," Putin said, in quoted remarks reported on Interfax.

"At the same time, I draw your attention to the fact that Ukraine is not
an abstract lot of senior officials and not a lot of oil and gas barons
who will take care of their interests in any event, but above all it is a
fraternal Ukrainian people and we must think about all aspects of
relations between Russia and Ukraine."

"For this reason, I instruct the government and Gazprom to ensure supply
of gas to Ukraine for the first quarter of 2006 on the terms and on the
basis of the prices of 2005 on condition that our Ukrainian partners sign
before the end of today a contract that would contain Gazprom's proposals
to go over to market prices in the second quarter," the president said.

"If no clear reply comes, we will consider that our proposal has been
rejected," he said.

Meanwhile Europe warily watched the standoff amid warnings that its
supplies could also be affected.

Earlier Saturday a former Kremlin adviser criticized Moscow's gas price
hike, saying the demand indicated resurgent Russian imperialism.

Andrei Illarionov, Putin's former economic adviser, said the Kremlin had
asked him to help portray the price rise as a free-market measure but
instead he resigned this week.

"Energy weapons are being used against neighbors," Illarionov said on Ekho
Moskvy radio, according to The Associated Press. "The move toward a policy
of imperialism ... has a clear and high price that will eventually be paid
by the citizens of a nation that embarks on the imperialist path."

One reason for Russia's push to increase prices is Ukraine's 2004-05
"Orange Revolution," which forced its pro-Russian government out of power,
replacing it with Viktor Yushchenko's pro-Western presidency, which seeks
NATO and European Union membership.

Dmitry Trenin, an analyst at the Carnegie Moscow Center, said Ukraine
"cannot have (its) cake and eat it."

"If the Ukrainian government has decided that the future of Ukraine lies
with the West, then they have to know that the basis for their relations
with Russia will be different," he said.

Seeking to divert attention away from the row, Yushchenko on Friday
announced his country would continue to import natural gas from
Turkmenistan and would have enough heating fuel for the cold winter
months.

"We will receive forty billion cubic meters (from Turkmenistan) which is
more than a half of our gas balance for the next year," Yuschenko said,
according to his Web site.

The same pipeline that bring Russia's natural gas to Ukraine extends to
the EU, providing it with nearly half the natural gas it needs. Russia and
Ukraine promise their disagreement will not affect that supply.

EU Energy Commissioner Andris Piebalgs said he was concerned about the
Russian threat, but believed an agreement will be reached "and that Russia
and Ukraine will honor their commitments to supply European gas markets as
they have at all times in the past."

Putin has defended the quadruple increase in natural gas prices, and
offered a loan to help Russia's neighbor weather the financial hit.

But national pride runs high in Ukraine. Before Putin made his latest
compromise deal, Yuschenko said his country would only pay 50 percent more
than it does now, and rejected Putin's offer of a loan.

"Ukraine will pay with its own money at a price set in a comprehensible,
objective fashion," he said.

Illarionov said in August 2004, Gazprom signed a deal with Ukraine's gas
company guaranteeing five years of gas supplies at the subsidized rate --
part of the Kremlin's efforts to support presidential candidate Viktor
Yanukovych, who lost a tense race Yushchenko.

"When the political situation changed, they remembered about subsidies,"
said Illarionov, who long had been a dissenting voice in the Kremlin,
which is dominated by Putin's fellow veterans of the Soviet spy agency
KGB.

Illarionov compared Russia's price hike for Ukraine to Nazi and Soviet
ultimatums issued to Eastern European nations before their annexation on
the eve of the World War II, and urged the Kremlin to step away "from the
brink of a precipice that we are approaching so blindly and quickly."

</quote>

<deletions>

Putin, about to take over the high-profile position of quasi-head of the
most capitalistic organization on earth, knows that Russia will never be
taken seriously as a responsible power if it engages in such shenanigans.
Hence the desire to resolve the conflict as rapidly as possible.

\EH
.