Re: experts in small probabilities
- From: Russell.Martin@xxxxxxx
- Date: 14 Jan 2006 13:14:03 -0800
Carsten Steinhoff wrote:
> Hello,
>
> for a research project I have to work with estimations of very small
> probabilities.
> Experts will be asked how likely it is, that a scenario happens in T years.
> I think there should be some literature on that very interestin topic.
> Especially I'm looking for some psychological foundation to learn how to get
> the information as good as possible from the experts....
>
> Thanks a lot for any information!
>
> Carsten
In addition to Art's and Reef Fish's suggestions, I'd add a few
points. First is that often when dealing with small probabilities
one is dealing with estimates of the probabilities of extreme
events, so it may be useful to understand something about that
topic in statistics. The classic early work, which is still available,
is _Statistics of Extremes_ by Gumbel. A newer book on the
topic is _Statistical Analysis of Extreme Values_ by Reiss and
Thomas. There are others, of course.
The second point is that even experts can have their estimates
biased by various processes. IMO a good review of that topic is
_Inevitable Illusions: How Mistakes of Reason Rule Our Minds_
by Piattelli-Palmarini.
Finally, you might consider what I'd call "the flip side" of asking
experts for estimates, that is asking a lot of people, experts or
not, for estimates, as covered in _The Wisdom of Crowds_ by
James Surowiecki. I have some reservations about this
approach, but I've seen it work in practice.
HTH.
Cheers,
Russell
.
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- From: Carsten Steinhoff
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