experts in small probabilities

Hello,

for a research project I have to work with estimations of very small
probabilities.
Experts will be asked how likely it is, that a scenario happens in T years.
I think there should be some literature on that very interestin topic.
Especially I'm looking for some psychological foundation to learn how to get
the information as good as possible from the experts....

Thanks a lot for any information!

Carsten


.

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