NASA-Enhanced Dust Storm Predictions to Aid Health Community
- From: baalke@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Tue, 28 Oct 2008 14:46:50 -0700 (PDT)
Oct. 28, 2008
Steve Cole
Headquarters, Washington
202-358-0918
stephen.e.cole@xxxxxxxx
RELEASE: 08-274
NASA-ENHANCED DUST STORM PREDICTIONS TO AID HEALTH COMMUNITY
WASHINGTON -- NASA satellite data can improve forecasts of dust
storms
in the American Southwest in ways that can benefit public health
managers. Scientists announced the finding as a five-year NASA-funded
project nears its conclusion.
Led by investigators Stanley Morain of the University of New Mexico
in
Albuquerque, and William Sprigg of the University of Arizona in
Tucson, scientists evaluated the influence of space-based
observations on predictions of dust storms. Using NASA satellite
data, forecasters could more accurately predict the timing of two out
of three dust events.
NASA's Public Health Applications in Remote Sensing project, or
PHAiRS, released a report on the study this month. Such forecasting
capability is the first step toward a reporting system that health
officials could use to warn at-risk populations of health threats and
respond quickly to dust-related epidemics.
"The program has been successful in its work to improve dust storms
predictions, which has important implications for air quality and
respiratory distress warnings," said John Haynes, Public Health
Applications program manager at NASA Headquarters in Washington.
Dust and the pathogens it carries have been blamed for exacerbating
some cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, including asthma. Dust
also obscures visibility on roads, which can contribute to closures
and traffic accidents.
NASA launched PHAiRS in 2004 to identify how satellites could help
modeling and forecasting of dust storms and to enhance a
computer-based system that health managers can use to report and
respond to dust-related health symptoms.
The key to better dust forecasts is to represent accurately the
features that influence the behavior of dust: land topography, the
proportion of land to water, and surface roughness.
"Dust modeling always has relied on surface characteristics that we
knew were wrong," Sprigg said.
For instance, information in previous models about a region's
features
was patched together from old maps and topographic surveys, which do
not accurately represent seasonal or cyclical changes in vegetation
and related surface features.
Through PHAiRS, up-to-date measurements of Earth's surface features
--
collected from instruments on NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites --
provided the critical details needed to enhance an existing dust
model. Observations of Earth from space offer more complete
information, filling in the gaps between the locations of surface
measurements and providing up-to-date snapshots of changing surface
features.
The team began with an existing model Slobodan Nickovic of the World
Meteorological Organization in Geneva developed that describes how
dust is lifted off the ground and carried in the atmosphere.
Researchers coupled this model with an operational weather forecast
model the U.S. National Weather Service created. The team adapted the
model to accommodate dust storms in the U.S. Southwest and then
introduced the new satellite-derived measurements.
After using the new model to make hourly dust forecasts for
California, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas during dust events, the
team compared their results to real-world observations. They found
that the NASA data improved the model estimates of wind speed,
direction, near-surface temperature, and the location and amount of
dust lifted off the ground. Statistics for the model's performance
show that between January and April 2007, the timing of two out of
three dust storms in Phoenix could be forecasted precisely.
Already, public health professionals have been enlisted to work with
the PHAiRS team to assess the model's real-world utility. The team is
collaborating with physicians, public health experts and community
leaders in Lubbock, Texas, to integrate the NASA dust storm
predictions into a computer-based decision-support system called the
Syndrome Reporting Information System, which maps reported cases of
respiratory distress. The satellite-enhanced system would allow
health and environmental managers to "see" the next 48 hours of dust
concentrations for their areas and track the number of respiratory
distress situations that result.
Ultimately, the system could allow health officials to issue early
warnings to populations at risk for dust-related health
complications. Preliminary feedback from public health end-users
about the enhanced system's performance is expected in January 2009.
For information about NASA and agency programs, visit:
http://www.nasa.gov
-end-
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