Re: Lasted trends in automated building systems.... the Frankenstein scenario



On Tue, 1 Jan 2008, phil scott wrote:

On Dec 30 2007, 4:52 pm, Straydog <a...@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
On Sun, 30 Dec 2007, phil scott wrote:
On Dec 30, 3:15 pm, Beladi Nasrallah <nasra...@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
On Dec 31, 8:30 am, phil scott <p...@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:


lacking the social brand of brainwash we get in america...but with
other issues.

Phil Scott

I have been watching the 'complexification' of modern society grow over
the last 2-3 decades and shaking my head (that means I think disaster is
ahead). It might not be bad if nothing unforseen happens, but if unforseen
things happen, then we're in trouble.

A good example is EMP-toasted electronics. One nuclear blast (by a
terrorist?) detonated from a baloon a few miles above the surface can
pretty much melt solid state devices for at least hundreds of miles in all
directions including any com satellites in orbit.

I recall reading some articles about how our tech boys, upon capturing new
Soviet military aircraft, were laughing at the fact that the Russkies were
still using vacuum tube technology but they stopped laughing when they
realized that vacuum tubes are naturally resistant to EMP damage. Could it
be that a few atmospheric nuclear detonations over the USA about 1-2, or
so, decades ago could have totally destroyed our economy by melting a
major fraction of CPU and other chips in most of our computers? Nuclear
detonations in space, decades ago, were known to melt the transistors by
EMP in at least several space satellites back then, even hundreds of miles
away.

We depend too much on these systems. The quantitative question is to what
percent degredation do you need to get to before the snowball effect takes
over?

Below is a repost of a file I made years ago about all these "wonderful"
computerization projects that failed miserably. Projects that were
overpromoted, oversold, signed, sealed, and fizzled out sometimes needing
a total writeoff....

------------------file below------

Here is a quote from an article in the Wall Street Journal, April 30, 1998
(and it was on the front page, A1). The article title is "Pulling the Plug,
Some Firms, Let Down By Costly Computers, Opt to 'De-Engineer,' With
Its Software Clashing, Chrysler Chucks NeXT and Rediscovers Phones" by
Bernard Wysocki, Jr.(staff reporter). Please read carefully this one quoted
paragraph:

"The waste is staggering. A 1996 survey of 360 companies by the research
firm Standish Group International Inc. in Dennis, Mass., found that 42% of
corporate information-technology projects were abandoned before
completion. U.S. companies spend about $250 billion annually on
computer technology."

That article gave several other specific example of large and very expensive
(up to $65 mi) projects that completely failed.

Since you might say that the above is a little old (1998) and things have
gotten better, here (below) is a paragraph, out of a more recent multipage
article. I quote from the print version of Infoworld.com, page 42, from the
8/16/04 issue. Please read carefully.

"The Standish Group, which exists soley to track IT successes and failures,
sets out very strict criteria for success. For its Chaos Report, The Standish
Group surveyed 13,522 projects last year and showed that unqualified
project successes are well below 50%, 34 percent to be exact. Out-and-out
failures, defined as projects abandoned midstream, are at 15 percent.
Falling in between the two are completed but "challenged" projects. The
report says challenged projects represent 51 percent of all IT projects and
are defined as projects with cost overruns, time overruns, and projects not
delivered with the right functionality to support the business."

That same article showed a bar graph correlating project success with
project cost. Result? The highest budgeted projects were the biggest
failures. Projects budgets for more than $10 mil, were successful only 2%
of the time. Projects under $750,000 were successful 46% of the time.

In the book "The Software Conspiracy - Why Software Companies Put Out
Faulty Products, How They Can Hurt You, And What You Can Do About It" by
Mark Minasi (c 2000, McGraw-Hill), the author documents a sad aspect of the
software industry culture: more emphasis is placed on adding new features
than correcting old or known bugs or producing low bug code. And, in the
history leading up to the book, there has been no improvement in this
culture.

-----

OK, you can call me nuts but I'm going to say that DOS was the best ever
operating system. Small, fast, simple, easy, stable, and cheap.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -



thanks Dog, I copied your 1998 post to one of my clients, who has been
burned by bogus controls companies 5 out of 5 times in the last year
or two... huge losses and expenses, many never resolved.... several I
was retained to review prior to construction and issued error
waringings etc... ignored. but ol philsie knew how to handle
that.. all in wirting, with cad drawings and photo's and multiple
copies (they loose theirs)... so you have a copy for them.

that woiks.

Right after I got my BS degree I got a job as a Project Engineer at Underwriters' Labs and it was just days later that I started to learn about all the ***. Just one: They contracted an outfit to build a one-of-a-kind device to test flame arrestors and determine for the first time ever non-propagating gap thicknesses for hazardous atmospheres (carbon disulfide is the worst: no lower limit was found). Anyway, the supplier was pretty good on the mechanicals and absolutely shitty on the electricals. The two parties were not only not cooperating but not communicating, either, and the device was overbudget and quite fucked. Well, I told them I could clean it up and I did a total rewiring of the control panel PLUS drew them up a schematic diagram so anyone following me could do maintenance-repair-mods-upgrades. So...I became a minor hero to them. Of course, they had other idiotic, imbecile, dumbass problems, too. And, I aways made the best friends out of those colleagues who saw exactly the same problems that I saw. The rest carried out processes akin to the ostrich response: head in sand, see no evil-etc, speak no evil, etc., and rah-rah apple pie and the salute the flag, and don't ask about functionality.

the current situation involves a controls company denying any
responsibility that their integrated 100% complete wiz bang state of
the art wireless controls package...... on this rather large spread
out facility actually work.... in conjuction with the various HVAC
equipment installed.

I've heard of too many stories about wiz-bang going "BOOM" on the launch pad....

You remember the US super sonic transport airplane? Boeing got the contract for the sexy swing wing plane and the losers, McDonnel-Douglas (had a fixed delta wing geometry), and two weeks after the contract, Boeing had to come out and admit that they made an arithmetic error and now, after correcting the error, the plane could carry fuel or passengers, but not both. 2000 mph aircraft...made worthless. Then you know they finally axed that British-French Concorde since the only way it was going to fly is if it got a subsidy one way or the other (govt or only rich people flew it).

It works about 80%...thats llike a conputer that only looses 20% of
your stored documents... at random... only with a computer you have
backups hopefully...with a building entire sections shut down.... in
the winter that can freeze the interior pipiing and flood a
building...cost in the milliions as the tennants threaten law suits.

Yep

It never ends.. i get sharp with those folks... some say nasty.

I have given up. When my wife and I talk about this, we agree to smile and keep the mouth shut, and run to the exits.

but
really Im just very much directly and persistently on point and not
allowiing diversions onto various ludicrous tangents and
distractions.


It seems today that not too many people are able to stay on point.

Adult-ADHD....comes from too much television, too much instant gratification video games.

.....that seems to be because these dont know the technology
themselves, so rely on what others who dont know the technology
*say... vaguely, and most offen just hot air.... such a discussion
wanders in the dark. thats the rule today it seems..... and of
course one has to be polite so that none of the idiots look bad.

Question: how did the idiots get to the top? Seriously, how does this happen?

In an overly polite situation, the idiot can simply blather on and
on..others not knowing anything either then blather on other tangents,
and they all walk... except my clients...in this case 10 weeks of
this, no fix yet. In two days ive documented the obvious problems,
with no room for the quilty to squirm... it will be fixed in a few
days. From there though the client is stuck with all that crappy
software and tiny plastic and tin failure prone gismo's controlling
his entire business.

it wont work.

Lately I make hay on that mess by offering bullet proof, old
technology solutions that can be guaranteed 5 years, parts and labor
unconditionally... none of these controls companies will do that. But
you still have to outsell their conn artists...

You need a big, real logo and a suit, and very good bull***.

.... and thats difficult if the client is short a clue on the
issues....most are, along with their engineers and architects...all
under the spell of technology that has a high failure rate because of
its nearly limitless complexity.

beyond that... if a system fails you can no longer send one man to fix
it... it takes several specialists, none of whom understand each
others systems to sort a mess out..that often takes days...costing
thousands of dollars, while a clients facility is shut down because of
it.


Just like high end lawyers. And, overhead is not figured into base pay.




the thing is, if you have idiots or just the dogmatically ill
informed involved, and unexposed, there is no way in hell you will
ever get a stable solution... thats a rub for these folks. but its
necessary.

Know what? I dream that there might still be some uninhabited south sea island out there. Or, dream about whether I could make an artificial "island" say on some old barge, put 1-2 feet of topsoil on top, plant tomatoes, corn, etc. Pitch a tent. Take my books with me. Choose balmy latitude. Long cable to anchor to hold position. Etc.

You know? Dreaming is fun, and cheap!


Phil Scott



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