Re: Luck is a huge factor

morrisjcroy@xxxxxxxxx wrote:
Such uncertainties is one reason why Graham recommended that one invest in
companies that have been in business for at least twenty years. There's a
good chance that they've been through at least one cycle, including a
general downturn, and have survived.

Everybody thought that the privatized natural resource companies were
a sure bet

That's where a lot of people got stung. Sure bets seldom are.

like oil, natural gas, vodka, etc ... The vodka
distilleries were in business for decades, despite all the Soviet
style nationalizations, oppression and executions. (Apparently there
was an actual market overseas for real Russian made vodka). For oil
and natural gas, they thought the privatized firms would resemble
firms like BP, Exxon, etc ... In the end, they resembled state run
oil companies in the middle east. (ie. Yukos)


I've learned over the years that by the time I hear about some golden opportunity, the easy money's already been made.
.

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