Re: Postdoc jobs from multiple companies can be found on indeed.com

On Jun 7, 10:13 pm, morrisjc...@xxxxxxxxx wrote:
I think in the US there will be a big shortage of that talent....
however not abroad, a half starved chinese PhD in engineering can
spend all the time he needs to come to world class levels on that
software, and the work can be sent back and forth in PDF files etc.

Eventually India and China's labor may end up becoming "expensive"


thats wishful thinking in my opinion. why? there are 3 billion of
em in total, and these are graduating hundreds of thousands of S and
E;s a year, many from IT (india tech, a vastly superior school in many
(but not all) respects).

The US is graduating a minuscule fraction of that...and from my direct
face to face long term experience, most scientifically illiterate...
wall to wall...very very few exceptions.

it is the total volume of S and E;s coming out of the china and india,
and to a lesser extent russia that will keep those salaries down, a
supply and demand thing.


this is especially true now as the latest buidling design software for
instance will draw at a touch of a button or two, and adding a few
local parameters... an entire buildings piping or air conditioning
duct systems, extracting the load calcs from the materials of
construction that of course are already loaded as part of the
construction drawings..

now...that will NOT replace all of the engineers...just about 90% of
their work load.

the notion of freeing them up to do more advanced work is a viable
notion, maybe 10% will find room in that area.

that combined with the glut from china will keep those salaries low
and going lower imo. (about 9% of chinese S and E grads each year by
the way find work, the rest are kicked loose...when those find full
access to the US market, high end engineering will be a low rent
comodity...learnable anywhere in the world..on line)

the mistake we tend to make is to apply past observations and
conclusions to present situations, and that works.... much of the
time.... at times of massive change though it does not work, its a new
ball game... and yes thats distressing. most people go deaf in that
case to avoid overwhelming stress... not such a bad solution.... a
person needs the relief, at times its crucial.

longer term, the old dies out... every time.




too, such as what happened in Japan and Germany over the last 60+
years. Though how long this will take to happen is unknown,
considering the population of these two countries is in the billions.
One day the birth rate and population growth may very well start to
become negative in India and China too. When this day will come, we
may already be deceased. Maybe generation-Y and successive
generations will live to see it.


correct... now graph it out on a chart that has decades across the
bottom..you will notice that indeed you are correct... sort of like
the saying that mother earth will correct the errors of man...true.
Like an asteroid strike, all is fixed in just a few hundred million
years.

we as individuals however live on a much shorter string...for me, a
decade or two working at the most...others on the NG only a bit
longer. Charting for personal purposes will be different than
charting for say national life cycles.

china will indeed peak over the next half century... then stagnate,
decay and touch bottom again over the next segment of time (entire
cycle takes 5 generations as an almost iron clad rule, 260 years...
520 peak to peak)




I was also spending my money in the US, furthering the broader
economy. much of the HIB and illegals money is going
offshore.....accompanied by a huge sucking sound.

Maybe our glorious govt can fund its civil service retirements ( up to
10x or 15x !!the average in the private economy, police and fire at
10x) by going after the half starved engineers turned handymen, in
competition with illegals with contractors licenses no less.

The government will most likely solve this problem by the path of
least resistance: printing up money over a long period of time.

that is correct, it will hyper inflate the currency, and that
works. for about 2 years...then the entire mess hits the wall as
all investment heads out of the country.

we are already into the ramping up phase of the hyperinfationary
curve...despite the bogus CPI index figures...the real number is shown
in the dollar price of real goods, raw materials,oil, gold, real
estate... will the latest world class manipulation strategies work
to contain it? Bernake sure hopes so... I think it will actually...
for a time.


********
You cannot prevent a grossly bloated govt, that over taxes its
productive class to extinction from going broke however. thats the
bottom line.
that is the historical pattern.

as the public sector is driven to the pits, burocrats see too it that
their jobs last longer and that their relatives get hired onto govt
jobs as well... exponential bloat is already the case....its not
sustainable in the faintest.


driving such a mess to the pits at accelerated speeds, historically,
is the attempt by such a nation to capture its neighbors land or
rescources...war ensues.. the cost of the war drives the final stake
into the heart of such a nation...

that is regardless how well the war is justified....wars on that basis
cannot be won you see. Why? Because the attacker or nation is
wearing uniforms to preclude shooting themselves. The natives become
guerilla's, undetectable... they take the army guys out with rocks
and bullets at 10 cents each... the army uses 10 million dollar
rockets...killing civilians at a ratio of 10 to 1...creating more
guerilla;s

the guerilla's *always win in the end.



Back to the point of a job. Being a self employed free lancer will
get you out of the nasty self defeating political mess, and better pay
per hour...but its not easy.

a govt job works...and will probably work for another 10 year or so..
but I see it destroying those involved...mush brains, rationalizing
the disease. these are sick people in my view.

Free lancing with virtualy zero overhead...well one is free as hell
that way...with no taxable property one can live with a tenth the time
others spend working...not such a bad deal.


going for the gold in realestate? for some its OK I suppose. I look
these types in the eye regularly though...somehow its not on my path.








Phil Scott


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