Re: US debt and long-term savings strategy - what do you think ?



On Thu, 29 Mar 2007, Old Pif wrote:

On Mar 28, 10:40 am, "carrera d'olbani" <dolb...@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:

You appear not to read what I wrote. I said that the investors took
easy ways so far -- they invested into stocks and real estate. But
investors exhausted this avenue -- they cannot get (good) returns
anymore. But they still have loads of money. They need to invest those
money. So now (the key word is _now_, and not before) there are
opportunities to get those money for the high-tech projects. Not
necessarily "high-tech", but something new. Where the new tangible
stuff will be delivered to the consumers. Good qualifications and
skills will be needed for that. It is late for me. But it is the right
time for the young people who are doing their PhDs now, and will
become competent scientists in 5 years or so.



If you read financially oriented press you find that for more than a
century

Much more than that (read Edward Chancellor's "Devil Take the Hindmost"...they had a rudimentary futures market during the Roman Empire)

since the first stock exchanges have appeared people have been
arguing where to invest money. And it is always something different.
One time it is railroads some other time it is Internet or real
estate.

1500s= Tulip mania, England 18th century, and before= railroads, before that the South Sea Company, USA.

Another common place is that most of them are wrong most of the time.

Most of those who sold stocks, bonds got the money. The buyers got the pieces of paper (became worthless).

Only few become really rich all the others are happy if they make
10-15% in the long run.

You didn't lie.

All that you write about high-tech was a part of mindset in 90th when
it was enough to stuff you business plan with buzzwords and money felt
on your head like snowfall. But even then all that has been based on
the very simple calculations that even if one out 10 start-ups becomes
really successful it covers all the cost and brings substantial
profit. The tragic reality for us - tech (high or low) people is that
nobody believes in that anymore. May be some time should pass to
forget the pain of dot.com bust ...

Well, there are guys in: i) derivatives, ii) monopolies, stock option backdating, so called "private equity" including M&O, and so called "puff-rollups," iii) lots of scams and illegal stuff is being discovered and reported (WSJ) quite often, including now the real estate bubble and the snot is coming out now that maybe much if not most of the problem came from unregulated entities (of course the unregulated entities want to STAY unregulated because they want to pull off "fast deals" that make them a lot of money; all those "sub prime" guys really knew from the beginning that they were skating on thin ice, but they were in it for the money right from the beginning (according to another WSJ article).


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What is says is that there are lots of money in the market to invest.
The current methods of investment (real estate property, stocks) do
not work anymore -- all the easy avenues are already exhausted. Now it
is the time for the new manufacturing technologies and for the new
products. This is where the money will be invested. One needs to be
prepared for such abundant opportunities -- better go to the
university and get a BS degree (or even better a PhD) in some hard
core physical science. Keep yourself healthy. And you will eventually
float on the top of the things (with the probability 95%). All the
best. (Do not listen to the old farts. They will stay where they
belong -- in the past.)- Hide quoted text -

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