Re: Global warming...gasoline into the fire!

Straydog wrote:

<snip>

Much the same could be said about recycling a generation ago. But governments, particularly at the municipal level, took action and established programs that made it easy for people to dispose of much of their waste, such as plastic and paper. By locating recycling depots in convenient locations, recycling is not only practical and easy, it's popular.

All it took was a little bit of effort and some thought....


A very little bit of effort and very little thought. The global warming is an issue in another universe.

I can remember how, in the late '60s and early '70s, there were dire predictions that we were going to be extinct by 2000 due to pollution and overpopulation and, yes, global warming.

We're still here, but why? Perhaps those predictions were enough to prompt people into taking action. I recall how, when the phony energy crisis of the early '70s was in progress, we were supposed to have run out of oil by now. What the forecasts didn't account for were improved methods of extracting what known oil was left, improved methods for drilling (such as directional and horizontal rigs), and, perhaps the most important point, *conservation*.

Then along came Reagan and conservation went out the window.

But, back then, it took small efforts to yield larger results.

<snip>

It's understood that there will be some need to operate a motor vehicle, such as emergency services and the like. But it appears to me that most are on the road on trips that aren't essential and have only the driver inside.


Go and talk to any of them.

One of my former teaching colleagues refused to take the bus to work because it wasn't sufficiently "convenient" for him. As for me, I only had to walk ten minutes to the terminal where I'd catch the bus to work. From door to door took about an hour which, for me, would have been about, say, fifteen minutes longer than if I'd driven to work, but I'd still have had to go through the same traffic if I'd used my car.

By taking the bus, I let someone else worry about the traffic and the stress that goes along with it. I could get a few minutes sleep or read or do some work during the trip. Unfortunately, on the return trip, the bus would be crowded and I'd have to contend with having to other people's chatter inflicted upon me. Still, I had a better chance of arriving home in one piece than if I'd taken my own vehicle.

I once calculated how much it would have cost me if I'd driven to work. I'd have to refuel once a week plus I'd have to pay for parking and the increased maintenance as, for example, I'd have to change oil more often. By comparison, a monthly bus pass would have cost me less.

Some kind of "inconvenience"....

Me, I can be perfectly happy sitting in my
favorite chair at home and reading a used non-fiction book (and learn
something) that I bought at a used book sale for a buck or less. Its
embarassing to me to see thousands of used fiction books (for those who
only want escape) and in very good to like new condition sitting at these
used booksales with 50c to $1 prices on them, going to waste.

I used to find books that were in good condition, if not brand new, in the cutout bins that some local bookstores used to have, but that seems to be a thing of the past now. Similarly, the city's public library would old a book sale once a year. When it came to the nearby shopping centre, I often bought some used volumes for dirt cheap, but the centre's management brought that to an end several years ago. I guess it must have detracted from its image as an upscale emporium for designer jeans, fancy coffee, and cellphones.

Weren't there posters during WW II with the caption "Is Your Journey Necessary?" Maybe it's time to use something like that again.


WWII (like any major war) was a very very different situation.

My point was that people were in an urgent situation and were prepared to conduct themselves accordingly.



Of course the

economists will tell us that supply (when the oil runs out) and demand (when the price is unaffordable) will take care of all problems.


I don't recall reading something like that in Samuelson's book.


Its in the underthemes.

You're probably right. It's been a long time since I looked through it.

<snip>

There is some legitimate basis for this as the terrestrial climate isn't entirely understood. I've come across papers discussing ocean currents, such as in the north Atlantic, in which many details are either unknown or uncertain. It's easy to understand why some may be skeptical about the exact cause of global warming.


And, don't forget there are rich people and corporate executives that will do anything to stop any efforts that will interfere (particularly if it comes from government) with their laid out plans for business (not to
mention their own self-enrichment) because it throws more uncertainty and distractions into their world. The only time you get a favorable view of government from business is when government starts talking about RFPs and $billions in a megabudget, then they all show up with big smiles on their faces.

The deliberate spreaing of misinformation about global warming is well-known. There was a recent case of a NASA scientist who was either reprimanded or canned because he wrote something about it. Apparently, some kid in the White House, with no background in science, decided that it was unsuitable.

We've got the same thing up here. Our federal environment minister has become greatly unloved for opposing the Kyoto Protocol. As I recall, she doesn't have a scientific background, either.


My point is that, even if there are doubts about human activity being responsible, what's the harm in behaving as if it is? If nothing else, doing so might eliminate it as a possible cause.


Don't listen to me, go and listen to the guys who are sure its a waste of money. Here is a solid example: somewhere I have a short report on the Exxon Valdese (I think) oil spill. Some guy kept track of the money spent on the cleanup of oil-covered seals. And, by the way this was published as an LTE in the journal Science so its not crap. It turned out that the average spent per seal was $79,000 and most of them died anyway. You ask "what's the harm?" and if it turns out like the seals, then its both a waste and a failure. I think its worth thinking about that.

My point is to prevent such things from happening. The Exxon Valdez was a case of one error after another and people not acting in a timely manner. This was depicted in the HBO movie "Dead Ahead":

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0104060/

Prior to that was the Amoco Cadiz. A centralized corporate bureaucracy and legalistic quibbling about salvage rights made the resulting spill inevitable. That's described in the book "Super Wreck" by Rudolph Chelminski. Similar themes appear in Noel Mostert's "Supership". I read that one in the late '70s, though I seem to have mislaid my copy.

While many of the seals died anyway, leaving them and doing nothing would have been a public relations disaster which could have potentially cost more financially.


And, how about you give us some example of how much could be done and what it will cost.

How about using low-power lights? I've been using fluorescent bulbs in my desk lamps for several years. I get better lighting for less power. Mind you, the initial cost is considerably more than the incandescent variety, but they last longer as well. There is, however, the issue of disposing of them when they give out, but I try to take them apart and bring the various bits to a major recycling centre in my end of the city where it can handle such waste material.

LED lamps also look promising.

My first item was outlaw all cars & trucks and that
will definitely stop a lot of CO2 generation but guess how well that will go over with people.

But, then, look how well people took to fuel-efficient motor vehicles when they were introduced in North America over thirty years ago.

And, I can foresee Indians and Chinese
doubling in ten years the total number of cars on the worlds roads in the next ten years or so. Are you going to write a letter to our pres and say "why don't you tell the Indians and Chinese to outlaw all their cars?" I can imagine the reaction.

Those who can afford them are a small part of the overall population. The vast majority is still poor.

<snip>

A good part of the economy in my province depends upon continuing the extraction and processing of the oil sands. Several plants are under construction right now. But there are major environmental concerns about the effects of the plants that are being built. In addition, their costs are increasing rapidly.


So?

That may well curtail work on some of those plants. That nearly sunk one of the major facilities when it was being built over thirty years ago, though inter-company political dealings between the various partners were also a major factor.


Then, I have not read anything

yet (but Russell did [the thistle dust stuff, and the phytoplankton idea]) about what could be done and there will be endless debating about which of many options if it comes to, say, increasing the energy reflected or absorbing CO2 or cutting CO2 production.


Right now, storing CO2 in underground caverns is being actively pursued, but I'm skeptical about how effective that's going to be.


Its going to be miniscule.

I think so, but that's not stopping people from spending money on it. It's another example of the cheque being written before the brain is put in gear.

<snip>

My apartment complex switched over to the low flush toilets a while back. I'm quite unimpressed by them. Often, the tilt tray for the water jams.


Things need to make sense. They need to be practical. They need to be cheap. The Great Wall of China was a megaproject and the history books say it was ineffective at keeping the barbarians out. The Maginot Line was a French "Great Wall of China" and when the Germans attacked, they just went around it. Big waste. One megaproject which did work, according to the history books, was the vast canal systems made in ancient Egypt. Somehow large numbers of people had to be organized and the project had to be designed competently. According to the books, the system did work. However, I've also noticed from writings that many past megaprojects also experienced controversy, debate, and resistance. The Parthenon, in ancient Athens, was criticised all during its construction.

History is filled with such examples. The Panama Canal is a good example, though it was one that finally succeeded.

When it was done, everyone was awestruck. Another example
of a megaproject: CTR. Five decades of megamoney and almost nothing to show for it. One recent article said all of the attention is on getting break even or more in a microscopic volume of space and nobody but nobody has even a plausible geometry sketched out for a practical CTR power generator, and the wild-ass guesses are that if built, we're talking about $500 bil a pop. To me, this does not compute.

*If* it's going to work. When even a major figure in that field states that he considers it to be impractical as a power generation system, then perhaps it's time to re-examine if it's worth the effort. (I forgot who it is right now. Part of what he wrote appeared in "Science" several months ago.)

I'm often amused when some small bit of progress is magnified by the popular media into predictions of a glittering future. Let it run for a few minutes without breaking down and we should expect to have backyard fusion generators next year.



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