Re: Why back-shoring wont cut it



"Straydog" <asd@xxxxxxxxx> wrote in message news:

Offshoring, per se, isn't a major problem. What is it, one
percent per year?

Id bet that thsts the bogus govt figure...the actual figures
are seen in various reality issues, such as one response to my
massively distributed resume from 1998 to 2005... lately some
response.. talking about half the money I used to make
inflation adjusted...and still no offers at that level.

I went from several hundred inquires a year to less than one
though 2005.

The same govt counts a CFO job the same as a hamburger flipper
job... its all jobs to them...its bogus.. we have gained
millions of low end jobs...and lost millions of high end jobs
that paid 10 or 20 times more...




Its going to taper off. The big consulting firms all predict
that
its going to level off. A lot of jobs have come back. As
wage inflation in India gets worse (notice that Kamal never
talks about this), turnover gets worse, there won't be any
overall price advantage, and India (and Kamal) are going to
run into an economic glass ceiling. Its in my FAQs.


Unfortunately for the US , India Tech University (its more
than world class) alone is graduating more engineers each year
than the entire US.. I forgot the figures..it may be three
times as much... whatever the situation is today...its
getting better or the indians and chinese at light speed, and
due to decimate the US.

that is not to say the indian and chinese engineers and
scientists will fare well...those too will be starved to death
as a surplus is reached...and that day is near also... that
however will only drive US rates even lower.



I just dont think the base algorithm, that includes our
govt
bloat, and other rot will enable much back sourcing over
the
long haul... my estimate is that we will see 3x the out
sourcing as we see back sourcing, and that will not abate
until the US middle class is toast.

Our biggest problem is China. Just look at the stuff in any
Walmart store. Just read the articles about China's
problems. They got a lot of our money. But, where's everyone
going to be in 5-10 years?

China's standard of living will rise 5 or 10% max..from the
absolute pits in the country side... but due to the size
disparity, US standard of living will drop by 50% or so...
sustainable on 'average'...disasterous for many on the dark
side of that average....and the nation..and the tax base.



I can't tell, but
THEY could collapse, too, not too far off in the future. The
Doha rounds are ending up a failure (unless a miracle takes
place at the end).

They will collapse... the peak in the historic life cycle of a
nation is short..spanning one generation from start to
finish...peaking in 20 year time frame.... and collapsing in a
20 year time frame... rough numbers with some exceptions..just
my summary. China and India will rise over the next 30 years
at our expense, then fade some for 20 years... then sink back
to the pits on the basis of over crowding and world wide
environmental factors.

*tempered dramatically though by the likelyhood of a pandemic
that will solve many problems by killing off half of humanity.




This is routine in world history... the military is 100%
non
productive... destructive in fact to our well being, as
the
backlash from past CIA dirty ops comes home to roost...


This is a separate issue.

It is separate in many aspects...it is not separate in that
it
is driving the cost of government to the stratosphere

Well, you wanna talk to W about that.

...and
debilitating our engineers. I know there are exceptions
to
that..I spend a lot of time in the weapons plants and know
the
spin off of that research to the private sector...however I
also got a full load of the dark side of that mess... at
the
congressional hearing I was asked why I put my career up
for
slaughter by speaking up...I said that the enforced
corruption
of US engineers in these weapons plants and other govt
would
decimate our innovative brain trust and destroy the
nation....
there was no response...just blank looks and the next
question.... that was happening between 1991 and 1995.

now its a decade later...our brain trust is toast.
Corporate
america has adopted the same corrupt approach to how it
treats
engineers as the folks in the weapons plants ...and at
NASA.

response: Ever read Dilbert?

Im a fan... Scott Adams has a clue. He doesnt know much
though about the military industrial dark side of the equation
as I see it.. he knows all about private engineering
offices however.




(you're supposed to laugh, or cry, or do both)

The US DOE sent two thugs to visit my motel when I was in
Hanford just after blowing the whistle... with gun butts
protruding from their deliberately under sized sports
jackets...

after a time I got used to it...there is no emotion left when
dealing with that scum...disgust maybe. thats it.





Trying to make the military a profit center by using it
gain
dominance in the oil field regions will likewise
backfire...because it is unjust... that always
backfires...as
we see today quite clearly despite the level of luducrous
lies
from government on the issue. There are now 2 billion
muslims
that hate our guts with good justfication, and another 2
billion non christians in sympathy with those.

Historically this has always been the path to total
ruin...the
US is solidly on that path now, especially since the
election
of George W Bush.



I'm not in favor of the war, either. But, every country
has
its own "non-productive" military.

I dont recall the figures but the US spends more than all
other nations combined I believe, by a huge factor, maybe 5
to
1 or some such.

Its more like a factor of 2, or 3 at teh most, from one
graph I remember seeing.

It is not the spending that is the issue...it
is the percentage of a nations GDP that goes to the
military
that is relevant.

Ours is much higher than announced... the 'black budget'
its
called. and absolutely corrupt to the core.

Well, we could talk about that, too.

it always self destructs... any discussion in that range
is per force behind its own self destruct curve... we see only
the aftermath.. but we think we are seeing current events....
we have no faintest clue how far south the mess has gone, nor
the stunning range of 'advances' these jerks are up to.

Hints from as far back as the 40's are nauseating.





As far as indian infrastructure short comings are
concerned...that hurts them in manufacture, but not
engineering. The eningeering can be done from a hut
with
a
high speed internet connection.

The chinese have overcome their infrastructure problems
enough
to have dominated.,... dominated... many formerly US
industries, such as appliances, and home
electronics...now
moving into automobiles...as the US auto mfgrs are
scheduling
to shut down 75 million square feet of plant capacity
over
the
next 2 years.

none of that will 'back shore' worth a damn...not even
faintly.



Its already happening. Its in my most recent post on
offshoring failure rates.

The same was said when we first started offshoring steel
production...'we will keep the engineering, finance, and R
and
D...only dirty industry will be offshored'... and that was
*true...for about 10 years....now we have lost huge chunks
of
those brain trust professions....

I am sure that we will back shore a few million jobs...I
just
think that we will offshore twice as many more...not
forever
though, just until the US middle class is down to 100 lbs,
and
wearing sandals to save on the cost of shoes.


Oh, we could speculate on that, too.

indeed... there are sea change factors that can blow the
equation either way. Pandemics of varous sorts, wars and
internal national interests.

so far though the US is cutting its own throat I think we can
agree on that in spades.

will it put down the knife? I dont think so... will our CIA
arrange for china and india to get a nasty case of the bird
flu? Talk to a few insider micro biologists on that issue,
and look into how many dissapear or turn up dead each year..
the latest research is in gene coded pathogens.



That business, equipment, infrastructure and brain trust
will
be gone forever unless we cease trying to force american
labor
to compete with slave labor living in barracks conditions
in
asia...and buying those goods, at the expense of our
industrial infrastructure... and over taxing our people
so
that their wage demand is non competitive in the world
markets... over taxation will not abate until govt
shrinks
80%... govt will not volunteer to shrink itself to any
significant degree.... the same with any cancer...its
founding
algorithm is parasitic.



Phil, the problem is in the exchange rates. They have been
set up decades ago and are obsolete when you consider
material/products compared to services before the internet
vs. after the internet.

I would like to say that the exchange rates are in fact a
crucial aspect of the problem... but still only part of the
problem.. the grossly bloated cost of US govt, mostly
wasteful
or even destructive to US enterprise and its entrepeneurs
is
perhaps the driving force behind the bogus exchange rates
..
thats a more complex analysis.

And, I'm going to push on the "bloated costs" of our
CEO-packages. These guys are eating up money like Godzilla
eats up cities.

yes..and sending it china as well...its going out of the US in
many cases. Compared to the government bloat though their
total is not the largest driving factor.




And, Warren Buffet is giving $30 bil (repeat: $30 bil) to
Bill Gates foundation.


Buffet has proven himself to be a decent person.
Gates is on the way.

With that much money what are you going to do with it ...
philanthropy that can change the world may be their most
satisfying option... and its done intelligently..in contrast
to the government waste approach.

Gates has a lot to make up for though, he's lied alot, some
would say the net effect of his software has been vastly more
destructive and wasteful than a net benefit....a terminally
diseased mess. (fronting CIA back doors so we can spy on the
rest of the world, worse by light years with Oracle.)


Phil Scott







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