Re: Art, where's the buzz on nanotech saving America today?

BMJ wrote:
rrc wrote:

BMJ wrote:

Afterwards, that is if there's a world in the 23rd century, we'll have
innovate in the solar realm that is if they're not suffering from
another "S&E shortage" during that time.


One of the present drawbacks with photovoltaics is the relatively low
conversion efficiency of modules. This means that a PV installation
will require significant areas of land. In addition, renewable systems
require a large initial capital expenditure when compared with existing
systems. (I investigated the economic optimization of hybrid renewable
systems for my Ph. D.)



That's why I'd placed the 23rd century as a caveat. Present day
photovoltaics are pretty dead end.


How so? There are some promising developments with new PV materials as well as module designs, so I won't write them off just yet. Unfortunately, a lot of systems are improperly designed, so people expecting miracles from such are likely to be disappointed.

It would have to be a collection of

lunar or orbital systems which then "microwaves" the solar radiation
back to the surface for power.


I first read about Peter Glaser's concept in the late '70s and thought it impractical and far-fetched. What astonished me about it was that there were people who thought it to be credible. Small independent terrestrial systems are far more effective and less costly.


So the cycle I see is Alberta/Siberian/Kazakh oil from here till 2030.


That assumes the following.

1. The price of oil will remain at levels to make these projects worthwhile. Let the price go down to, say, $40/bbl and the plants will have to be mothballed.

2. The technlogies behind those plants are feasible. Over the years, I've heard of all sorts of different approaches to this, many of which, thankfully, never got off the drawing boards.

3. The reserves believed to exist are actually there and are at an economical depth. As the formations closest to the surface become exhausted, the plants will have to be overhauled to enable extraction further down.

4. The plants operate reliably for extended periods of time. Over the years, the Suncor and Syncrude plants have been shut down due to maintenance or fire. Due to the sand, mechanical parts wear out much quicker in that setting than elsewhere.

The tar sands sound all nice and good, but I wouldn't bet the farm on them.

Modern Fischer-Tropsch coal->to->petroleum synfuels from 2025 till
2200. And then afterwards, a network of extraterrestrial solar stations
pooling energy for the surface along with limited fusion facilities.


We've been promised breakthroughs in nuclear fusion for at least the past generation and are still nowhere close. It's one of those in-another-x-years technologies which sounds nice, but I'll believe it when I see it. I also doubt that ITER is going to result in any major advances.

We can make far better use of the fuel available to us through conservation and changes in our personal habits. For example, I cycle a lot, which means I don't have to use my car. It doesn't cost me anything, I get exercise, and I'm not burning any hydrocarbon fuel. What's not to like about that?

There you go, which is why I'm not terribly worried about running out of oil anytime soon. Simply by buying Honda Civics, we could add 10-20 to the MPG we get out of a typical car. More if you are currently driving a truck back and forth to work because it looks cool. Hybrids are getting 40-50 MPG. The technology is already here to significantly reduce our use of oil. When true shortages hit, people will change their ways because they won't be able to afford driving a truck that gets 12 MPG. If we actually got serious about alternative energy or fuel economy, we could make significant advances, but the general public won't buy into it until we have another crisis like 1973.
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    ... innovate in the solar realm that is if they're not suffering from ... another "S&E shortage" during that time. ... Let the price go down to, say, $40/bbl and the plants will have to be mothballed. ... which is why I'm not terribly worried about running out of oil anytime soon. ...
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