Re: China enhances fleet of modern submarines;

On Fri, 4 Apr 2008 10:22:44 -0700 (PDT), Jack Linthicum
<jacklinthicum@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

The waters of the East China Sea, South China Sea and Yellow Sea are
of uneven depth, with considerable background noise, complex thermal
behavior and strong currents. These factors make it very difficult, if
not impossible, for surface ships and aircraft to detect stealthy
submarines, even with the most advanced passive sonar and other
sensors.

Isn't "area denial" another term meaning coastal defense? IOW we have
to attack them to put them in play?

How many active, ie leaving docks, submarines does China have?


In discussing defense matters on China it is always useful to look at
the topographical maps. The most useful map is not one drawn from
plots although for continental shelf depths one does need to depend on
drawn maps. The most useful terrain map is a cleaned up composite
satellite map. One look and the very complex hilly landforms in east
and south China and it is very obvious why you need a satellite map.
This appreciation of the terrain cannot be gleaned from looking at
drawn maps (cluttered with unreadable place names over complex contour
lines.)

The tortoured landforms on mainland China are unsuitable for
mechanized warfare until almost 800 miles inland on China's northern
(Yellow River) plains. Between the coast and Beijing, as is
everywhere else in China, the terrain is fully populated with farms
and cities. There is no easy fast strategic route for any seaborne
based invasion anywhere.

These two maps are available in an excellent National Geographic
"Atlas of China" ed 2008. Pages 12 & 13 (satellite) and pgs. 14 & 15
(drawn) showing the main rivers and continental shelf. There is much
useful information in the book including one on Military Strength in
pages 70 &71. It shows the reach of various Chinese missiles for
example and the lines of the "First island Chain" and the "Second
Island Chain" of defense. These Island Chains are not Chinese
positions on defense trip wires. But the logic of the First Island
Chain is so obvious that one might as well accept it as real. The
logic of the Second Chain is dubious. The maps in these two pages is
very welcome for hopefully one can refer to this reputable publication
that "fact checks" as a common basis on which to argue a position.
Too often arguments about China have data of dubious origin altered on
the fly to suit whatever the writer's point of view may be at that
moment.

On Submarines
The continental shelf averages 460 feet depth (140 m) worldwide.
Compare that with a nuclear powered attack submarine's length
(http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/ship/nssn.htm Length: Los
Angeles 360 feet (110 meters), Seawolf 353 feet (108 meters), NSSN
377 ft. (115 m) and you can see that the continental shelf depth is
less than twice the submarine's length. This makes anti-submarine
defense for the coastal power easy. Look at the extent of China's
continental shelf and it is just as easy to figure out the size and
type of naval assets China needs to build for Area Denial. It is also
an eye opener that in times of war you cannot just sail an aircraft
carrier group into continental shelf waters of a power that has a
credible submarine force. Or send US attack submarines there and have
them attacked by surface or airborne ASW forces. The logic of Area
Denial as a defense policy is pretty obvious. Why any US authority
would accuse China of being reticient on this only reflects the
naivety of that person.

China is not under threat at present. Only the US seeks to or has the
ability to pose a military threat. Therefore China has the luxury of
time to build, test, refine and build its military capabilities in the
years to come. That's your transparency. No China does not need a
carrier force.
.

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