Re: Deploying mines

On Oct 17, 5:03 pm, PaPaPeng <PaPaP...@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
On Wed, 17 Oct 2007 13:11:06 -0700, Frogwatch <dboh...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:



History is full of blunders and rationality is a poor guide to human
behavior. Consequently, one must plan for situations where nations do
irrational things.
So, assume China tries a naval blockade of Taiwan. Does Taiwan have
any good means to mine Chinese shipping routes to threaten them? I am
sure they could do so close to Taiwan but what about furhtrer away
such as Hong Kong
Assume China blockaded Taiwan so commerce was reduced to about 20% of
current level and assume that Taiwan mined Chinese shipping routes to
reduce shipping by 50%, who would crack first, China or Taiwan. You
might consider that blockades often simply make people entrench so I
think the Chinese blockade would be less effective against Taiwan than
Taiwans reducing of Chinese shipping.

Take a look at the map. The Taiwan Straits is between 100 miles to
120 miles wide and about 150 miles north to south with the Pescadores
as the southern lline. It is relatively easy for the PLAN to lay two
barriers of mines The first one from the northern tip of Taiwan to
the mainland shore. The second south line will use the Pescadores
islands as the mid point between Taiwan and the mainland.

These north and south lines of mines will create a lake stretching
150 miles north to south by 100 to 120 miles wide. China can leave a
shipping channel open for herself and for international shipping on
the mainland side that can be defended by conventional (aka cheap and
massive) artillery. Anti-shipping guided missiles are an option for
near shore defence and certainly the way to go for closing the Taiwan
side to shipping. That lake can be easily defended against
interference by outside naval forces should a cross Straits invasion
fleet be necessary by these two minefield barriers. It will also
bottle up any Taiwan naval assets inside this lake.

The logical strategy will be more of an extended siege where Taiwan
will surely run out of oxygen first. There's no profit in
unecessarily invading and destroying valuable assets and harming
future citizens. Taipeh, the capital will be blockaded. Taiwan's
southern ports at T'ainan and Kaohsiung will supply the rest of
Taiwan. In a siege these two ports will be under threat of mainland
based missiles. Shipping insurance and extra transportation costs
will gradually strangle Taiwan's economy. The siege will not likely
cause any food or civillian supplies shortages in the mid term.
Taiwan won't have the naval assets to mount a counter blockade.
Chinese trade can use Hainan, Hongkong and Guaggzhou in Southern China
or shanghai, Tianjin and all the other giant ports north of Shanghai
that are beyond reach of most of Taiwan's military.

Take a look at the map again and get a good appreciation of the
geography before weighing in with alternative scenarios.


Maybe I'm wrong, but you seem to be saying that it wouldn't be any
big deal for China to take Taiwan.
Taiwan could mine those ports with submarines causing a lot of
problems. The mainland just has a much greater...by several orders of
magnitude....staying power than Taiwan.I don't think Taiwan has a
chance without outside help.....which would lead to a wider war.



.

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