Re: Deploying mines

On Oct 17, 2:22 pm, "Ray O'Hara" <mary.palmu...@xxxxxxx> wrote:
"Frogwatch" <dboh...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message

news:1192638611.163318.246980@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx



In some scenarios in which China attacks Taiwan, it is simply a
blockade to destroy the Taiwan economy. Of course, two can play that
game. If China attacks shipping going to Taiwan, Taiwan can use her
new long range (600 mile range) anti-ship missiles to threaten roughly
1500 miles of the Chinese coastline shipping. She could even threaten
to use her subs to attack vessels bound to or from China. What about
mines? Is there any system to deploy mines via drones or missile?
Could mine deployment be done by remote piloted vessels?
In a leaky blockade scenario in which China cripples the Taiwan
economy but Taiwan also does a lot of damage to the Chinese economy by
making shipping insurance too expensive or greatly slowing delivery of
oil to China, what would happen first, collapse of Taiwan or collapse
of the Communist party of China? Would such a blockade simply cause
Taiwan to entrench while causing sufficient economic damage to China
to make people unhappy with the communist govt?

blockading taiwan would cause china to get in trouble with many western
nations who do much business with taiwan.
the U.S. would undoubtably send minesweepers and also escort any vessels
heading to taiwan.
the game is not worth the candle to china.

History is full of blunders and rationality is a poor guide to human
behavior. Consequently, one must plan for situations where nations do
irrational things.
So, assume China tries a naval blockade of Taiwan. Does Taiwan have
any good means to mine Chinese shipping routes to threaten them? I am
sure they could do so close to Taiwan but what about furhtrer away
such as Hong Kong
Assume China blockaded Taiwan so commerce was reduced to about 20% of
current level and assume that Taiwan mined Chinese shipping routes to
reduce shipping by 50%, who would crack first, China or Taiwan. You
might consider that blockades often simply make people entrench so I
think the Chinese blockade would be less effective against Taiwan than
Taiwans reducing of Chinese shipping.

.

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